Dick's Picks for Kentucky Derby 150

Posted May 2, 2024
By Dick Downey

This is The Downey Profile's 22d consecutive Kentucky Derby and likely its last in this format. The endeavor has been fun and satisfying, and I feel The Downey Profile was and still is groundbreaking in the completeness of its coverage of one of world's most important sporting events. I know I would do it all over again if the clock were turned back.

I may reach out to see if there's interest in an email-driven format. For now, I'll report to you my health is holding up well. There has been no detection of cancer cells since my July 2020 prostatectomy.

Thank you for subscribing. I am particularly grateful to those who have returned year after year to share in the joy and occasional disappointment of the Kentucky Derby.

Now let's get going. We'll begin with The Downey Profile's objective findings, followed by my selections. We'll conclude with comments about all 22 entries. If there are any late scratches that affect selections, I will post an update.

OBJECTIVE FINDINGS

DOWNEY PROFILE TOP 4 (See Section 5)
SIERRA LEONE (17.13 rating)
STRONGHOLD (17.13)
FIERCENESS (15.96)
FOREVER YOUNG (12.60)

DOWNEY PROFILE FIFTH, SIXTH AND SEVENTH
CATALYTIC (10.49)
CATCHING FREEDOM (10.04)
DOMESTIC PRODUCT (8.33, tie)
DORNOCH (8.33, tie)

PROFILE BUSTERS PROFILE (See Section 9)
CATCHING FREEDOM (5 points, tie)
RESILIENCE (5, tie)
JUST STEEL (5, tie)
NOTE: Fierceness has the most points (6) but cannot be a Profile Buster because he's in The Downey Profile Top 4. Ditto for Sierra Leone (5). Although I haven't run an analysis of this issue, my recall is that horses with both a Top 4 Downey Profile Ranking and a top Profile Buster number are formidable.

DERBY BY THE SPEED NUMBERS (See Section 6)
FIERCENESS - among the four fastest numbers in 5 of 6 categories
SIERRA LEONE - among the four fastest numbers in 5 of 6 categories
CATCHING FREEDOM - among the four fastest numbers in 3 of 6 categories
RESILIENCE - among the four fastest numbers in 3 of 6 categories

KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS
#17 FIERCENESS
#19 RESILIENCE
#2 SIERRA LEONE
#6 JUST STEEL
#4 CATCHING FREEDOM
#11 FOREVER YOUNG

PLAYABLES IN MY ORDER OF PREFERENCE
# 8 JUST A TOUCH
#7 HONOR MARIE
#12 TRACK PHANTOM
#3 MYSTIK DAN
#5 CATALYTIC

KENTUCKY OAKS
MY WIN PICK: #13 JUST F Y I
I will probably play only this filly.
#5 THORPEDO ANNA
#14 LESLIE'S ROSE
#8 TARIFA

LONGSHOTS
#3 WHERE'S MY RING
#4 REGULATORY RISK

EVALUATIONS OF ENTRIES IN POST POSITION ORDER

1 DORNOCH - A starting gate with 20 stalls that replaced the old auxiliary gate means post 1 isn't as geometrically challenging as it once was. But it's still challenging. This will be the fifth Derby for the gate.

   --The 2020 Derby saw Max Player in post 1 at 19-1 odds. He was far back early but finished well to get fifth, beaten seven lengths. ("Max Player reserved off of the inside, moved out between rivals four to five wide on the far turn, churned on in traffic and improved position" under Ricardo Santana, Jr. 
   --In 2021 Known Agenda drew post 1, was sent off at 9-1, and finished ninth, beaten 10 3/4 lengths; he was one of only four horses sent off at single-digit odds.("Known Agenda was unhurried along the inside, shifted out into the stretch and improved under stern urging" under Irad Ortiz, Jr.).
   --In post 1 for the 2022 Derby was the last-place finisher, 36-1 Summer Is Tomorrow. He "was away in good order, set a contested tempo for six furlongs, but gave way readily once headed and was eased through the lane and walked off" under Mickael Barzelona, a top-notch European jockey.
   --In 2023 Hit Show was sent off at 24-1 and finished fifth, beaten 6 1/4 lengths after sitting in striking distance all the way to the eighth pole. ("Hit Show tracked the top flight from the two to three path around the far turn, responded to rousing to range up outside of the leading trio entering the far turn, gradually progressed around that bend to spin into the lane in the five path while within striking range but flattened out between horses" with Manny Franco aboard.

Dornoch will undoubtedly be sent like Verifying was last year from post 2. That did not work out well. At 14-1 odds Verifying finished 16th after he "brushed an outer rival upon leaving the gates, dueled for the lead inside of a pair of pressers around the first turn, clung to an advantage down the backstretch, but weakened at the seven sixteenths pole, and wilted along the rail around the far turn."

I believe good horses in better post positions will finish better than Dornoch. On his best day Dornoch ran a 90 Beyer (Fountain of Youth) and a 94 Brisnet (Fountain of Youth, Blue Grass).

Dornoch had it pretty much his own way in the Fountain of Youth. Second betting choice Speak Easy, a speedy type, was a late scratch after getting loose on the track minutes before the race. Locked, the presumptive favorite, and Victory Avenue were scratched race morning. Merit was also scratched after racing in an allowance on Friday instead of the Fountain of Youth. Dornoch's final 5/16 was timed in 32.21. In the Blue Grass, he didn't go to the lead, and it didn't work out, and his gallop-out didn't stand out either.

Although Dornoch remains the only horse to beat Sierra Leone (Remsen Stakes), his Beyer figures haven't improved since. You can't bet them all, and I can't pull the trigger on him.

2 SIERRA LEONE - His qualifications, from his breeding to the $2.3 million auction price to some visually impressive winning performances, speak for themselves. He is an effective closer even when the pace is moderate to slow and whether the ground is wet or dry.

In average size fields an inside post is typically good for closers because they can save ground efficiently. Sierra Leone's style has been to drop back, avoid the fray, go through or around them on the far tun, and mow 'em down in the stretch. However, being this far inside is not trainer Brown's ideal post. He said on April 20, "You’ve seen horses win from the far outside and some that draw inside and run well. We’ll take what they give us, but somewhere in the middle would be ideal.” Although he hasn't taken much kickback in his four-race career, it's something Sierra Leone is able to do, and it's hard to conceive jockey Gaffalione won't give him a confident ride where he avoids trouble albeit behind more horses than ever before during the early running.

I think the real questions are whether he's fast enough to catch the better horses with clearer trips and whether his habit of lugging in during the stretch run of a long race will cost him. Although Sierra Leone did lug in during the Blue Grass stretch run, and although Just a Touch lost the lead to finish second, they galloped out together ahead of the rest of the field.

We are told jockey Gaffalione said Sierra Leone was only 75% in the Blue Grass. That is a scary thought for such a magnificent physical specimen. I am not a student of equine anatomy, but this horse is so large and muscular he reminds me of Justify. He paddles his left foreleg in races, but it hasn't affected his will or ability to win. His workouts at Keeneland and Churchill Downs were both excellent.

One issue that might arise is a reluctance to load in the gate. That process took three minutes in the Blue Grass, making the other horses wait in their stalls. In the Derby, however, Sierra Leone will be the third horse to load, so he'll be the one waiting for 17 others.

3 MYSTIK DAN - It is said a rainy day would move up Mystik Dan, who won the Southwest Stakes by a wide margin on a sloppy track, but we should not forget others have also run well on wet tracks, including the Southwest runner-up (Just Steel); the first five finishers in the sloppy Risen Star (Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Resilience and Honor Marie); the Remsen top two on mud (Dornoch and Sierra Leone); the Gotham runner-up in the slop (Just a Touch); and a muddy maiden winner (Society Man).

That said, Mystik Dan is one of only two horses in the field with a triple-digit Beyer (Fierceness has two of them), and he is another closer drawn close to the rail. He doesn't mind running inside of horses with a rider who loves to skim the rail, a la the Southwest Stakes win.

I note Mystik Dan finished the final 5/16 of the 1 1/16-mile Southwest in 30.04. However, he was not strong in the gallop-out of the Arkansas Derby after finishing that one in 37.88. His works at Churchill Downs are just fine but do not exactly tout him.

His most recent race, a game third in the Arkansas Derby, yielded a top-echelon Equibase figure and a combined DRF speed-track variant number that's among the four best numbers in the field even after he was knocked sideways early in the backstretch. Trainer McPeek can beat you when you least expect it. I would not want to leave Mystik Dan off tickets.

4 CATCHING FREEDOM - Catching Freedom is a small horse, but that's not all bad as those types can be more nimble and adept at avoiding trouble in a crowded field. The down side is he might not be able to handle a bump as well as a larger horse.

A confirmed closer, Catching Freedom is another one that will have to work out a trip from an insidish post. Catching Freedom has trained very well at Churchill Downs and has been there long enough since winning the Louisiana Derby from far off the pace to put in four workouts. He gallops with his neck arched and looks the part. A definite player.

We do note, however, the gallop-out of the Louisiana Derby had Tuscan Gold and Agate Road besting the others. Catching Freedom and Honor Marie were pulled up early in the first turn. However, that could have been by design.

5 CATALYTIC - Finished second in the Florida Derby but far behind Fierceness both in the race and the gallop-out; but it was not a bad effort at all considering he hit the gate and it was only his third career start and first at two turns. Legacy pedigree influence Distorted Humor (think Funny Cide), the dam sire, makes him more interesting.

The down side is his speed figures make him impossible for me to endorse for the win, but he is not completely out of the question in a superfecta. This quote from trainer Joseph got my attention, and it's not your typical "just what I wanted" statement. "He’s showing a lot more energy here than he does at Gulfstream," Joseph said following Catalytic's April 28 breeze.

6 JUST STEEL - It seems no one is picking this horse to do anything after he finished a pretty close second to an outstanding performance by Muth in the Arkansas Derby.

His last Derby work orchestrated by trainer Lukas -- slow and no gallop-out -- told me either the horse is not doing well or Lukas didn't want to show his hand. With that work following a one-mile move in 1:40 eight days earlier, I suspect it's the latter. This is my personal view based on a reading of the room; you might not agree; but Lukas used to have a propensity for winning big races at long odds, and he could have that in mind here.

A replay of the Arkansas Derby showed me Just Steel found another gear when he switched leads in the stretch. After running second, he was a few lengths behind Muth in the gallop-out. The Arkansas Derby was a strong race in my estimation, and this son of Justify has some good numbers in our objective measurements. We think he is a player.

7 HONOR MARIE - An improving type that showed a lot more in his second start of the year than he did in the first. A really nice finish to got him second in the Louisiana Derby. But as mentioned in our section on Catching Freedom, the gallop-out of the Louisiana Derby had Tuscan Gold and Agate Road besting the others. Catching Freedom, the winner, and Honor Marie were pulled up early in the first turn, but that could have been by design.

Honor Marie doesn't fit well in our objective measures, but I would be careful about discarding him if you like to play trifectas and superfectas, and he is not out of the question to do better than that. Another step forward from the Louisiana Derby puts him right there for a sharp trainer, and his last workout for the Derby was a dandy.

One issue is there are at least three horses to his inside that have a similar come-from-behind style, leading me to think about where and when he will be tucked in toward the rail by his British, first-time Kentucky Derby jockey Ben Curtis. A strung-out field led by a fast pace would aid his trip.

8 JUST A TOUCH - Another one that doesn't fit our objective standards but who stands to improve going forward. The Blue Grass Stakes was his first outing at two turns and only his third career start (think Catalytic), but he ran a big race and looked like a winner turning for home. I think it took him a while to change leads in upper stretch as he was running by pacesetter/Sierra Leone rabbit Top Conor, but when he changed leads he ran on and was beaten only 1 1/2 length. The top finisher, Sierra Leone, didn't exactly blaze home, which helped Just a Touch stay close.

My intial post-race thought was that Just a Touch got a lot out of the effort and should move forward in his second start at two turns. Although Sierra Leone lugged in during his stretch run in the Blue Grass, and although Just a Touch finished second, they galloped out together ahead of the rest of the field. It wouldn't shock me if Just a Touch wins the Kentucky Derby, but other scenarios are also likely. I would use him underneath.

9 ENCINO - Scratched.

10 T O PASSWORD - He led, opened up, and barely held on to win the Fukuyru to qualify for this race in only his second career start. Immediately following the win his trainer said he sent the horse to make sure he won so they could go to Kentucky but that he would not do that in the Derby.

His sole workout at Churchill Downs was in company with a stable mate who started out three lengths in front as they approached the half-mile pole, setting up what looks like an off-the-pace strategy. But who knows what he'll do when the time comes.

I was once told there are owners out there who want their horses sent in a race like this so their friends will see him on the lead, even if it's not for long. I cannot recommend T O Password, but if he blows up some tickets, good for him.

11 - FOREVER YOUNG - How odd the two Japanese horses drew posts next door to each other.

Everything about Forever Young, from the way he has run races to his workouts at Churchill Downs, indicates the strategy will be to conserve energy early and run like hell late. He does show the ability to finish strong, but repeating his early fractions in the UAE Derby could put him 15 lengths off the lead at the top of the Derby stretch.

He appears to have stamina but may need to avoid kickback. Forever Young was kept to the outside while winning the UAE Derby, avoiding kickback the entire trip. He galloped out ahead of the field, bounding along no worse for the wear into the middle of the first turn at the close of the video. He is a Downey Profile Top 4 horse and is one of my selections because I believe he will have a late kick. But I can't pick him to win.

12 - TRACK PHANTOM - Track Phantom loves to run, and it's not hard to see him being part of the pace scenario, but his training since the Louisiana Derby does not point to that outcome. One would think adding blinkers to a speed horse would make him more of a speed horse, but his training is designed for him to rate off the pace so he will have some gas left when the running gets real. We are sure trainer Asmussen knows what he's doing.

Track Phantom doesn't fit our objective standards, and I can't play much money on him. He's a tough read given the fact that until his last (and longest) race he had never finished off the board in six starts. But then, when the distance got a bit longer in the Louisiana Derby, he couldn't sustain his speed. At that point jockey Rosario said it's possible he has distance limitations. I suspect that missing a work, as he did at Churchill Downs, might mean something of a physical nature nature is in play. He's the kind of horse I would not feel comfortable betting across the board, but I don't feel easy about leaving him out either.

13 - WEST SARATOGA - The only gray horse in the field.

I respect trainer Demeritte and how part of his battle with cancer is to keep training. It makes me so happy he could make it to the Kentucky Derby and bask in this beautiful week.

West Saratoga earned his way in with a second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, won decisively by Endlessly. You could throw a towel over the distance between West Saratoga, Seize the Grey, Triple Espresso and Woodcourt as they crossed the finish line, and West Saratoga was not prominent in the gallop-out. He would become the only Kentucky Derby winner I can recall whose final workout was designed for three furlongs. Much as I respect his trainer, I have to pass.

14 ENDLESSLY - The best 3-year-old on grass will try the dirt in the Derby. In the past Churchill Downs' dirt surface has been kind to some grass horses who made the surface switch. In this case the horse, according to trainer McCarthy, works about the same on Churchill's dirt as he has at other tracks. And there is the thought that, following the spate of equine fatalities at Churchill Downs last year which led to the meet being finished at Ellis Park, the soil on the main track was amended; in other words, it's not the same dirt surface that was sometimes kind to turf runners in the past. But since this is the first meet with the amended soil, we just don't know.

Endlessly's penultimate Derby workout was not good; his final one looked much better but it was staged with a hopelessly outmatched workmate. He fits in the I-can't-use-them-all category. I wish he were running in the American Turf where he would probably be in a "best bet" category.

15 DOMESTIC PRODUCT - I really like this horse and his trainer's ability to bring one to the Kentucky Derby the right way, but his route -- going straight to the Kentucky Derby off a win in a 1 1/16-mile race in early March (Tampa Bay Derby) -- does not work for me. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Good Money led through crawling fractions of 25.25, 51.15 and 1:16.21. Domestic Product got the final 5/16 mile and the win in a very quick 28.86 seconds which is comprehensible considering the glacial early pace. A faster pace, which he will get in the Kentucky Derby, may help Domestic Product.

I see a red flag in the fact he didn't compete in a major nine-furlong prep, but that is so obvious it worries me I'm wrong. Tough to use, tough to completely ignore. But I cannot see him winning the Kentucky Derby; then again, I couldn't see Rich Strike winning the Kentucky Derby. I was just struck by the thought of another sometimes potent angle -- the trainer's "other horse." Can you imagine that happening with this one versus Sierra Leone?

Domestic Product is drawn fairly wide for a closer who needs a fast pace to run his best race. Working out a perfect trip would be key to a good result.

16 GRAND MO THE FIRST - He is set to break from the gate next door to the presumptive favorite, Fierceness. The form says "bumped start" in the Florida Derby. The head-on video shows Grand Mo the First broke straight and was bumped by the horse to his inside.

The colt's works have been very slow. This seems to be taken straight out of the Mage playbook. Mage worked very slowly leading into the 2023 Kentucky Derby.Grand Mo the First could be part of the early pace, but based on his form and training we cannot endorse him.

17 FIERCENESS - We all know Fierceness has exhibited demonstrable issues with adversity, and in a large field that could be a problem. Is this a legitimate fear or a relatively minor concern?

There's always something to worry about when you invest. Whether it's Wall Street, main street or the Kentucky Derby, a need to climb the wall of worry is always there. One of Fierceness' two bad races occurred almost seven months ago. Is that relevant now? The need to have a good trip in the Kentucky Derby applies not just to Fierceness but to every horse in the field. Is Fierceness any more likely than others to encounter a bad trip?

Fierceness is my top pick to win. He is in The Downey Profile Top 4 (Section 5 of the Subscription Page). Because of that he cannot be a Profile Buster, but he has the most points in the Profile Busters Profile (Section 9 of the Subscription Page). And in six categories of speed figures set out in Derby by the Speed Numbers (Section 6 of the Subscription Page) used by DRF, Brisnet and Equibase, he shares the lead with Sierra Leone. The post 17 jinx (no horse has ever won the Derby from that post), which didn't influence my thinking in the first place, is likely gone with the defection of Encino and the addition of Epic Ride. If the field remains at 20, this moves Fierceness in one notch to post 16. Regardless of the post number, he can certainly get a clear trip from there enabling him to get into that rhythm he enjoys. Like the others, he needs to break well for obvious reasons and to avoid being squeezed back.

A nightmare scenario would be something like #19 Resilience breaking inward, forcing #18 Stronghold into Fierceness and Resilience getting the best of both of them running toward the first turn. This is my wall of worry.

If something like that doesn't happen, and if he runs his race, it's a matter of getting the distance, something they all face. Fierceness put in an awesome workout at Churchill Downs (my observation was "I don't know how Fierceness could be asked for a better workout going into a big race"), leading me to think he is no worse for the wear after his 13 1/2-length win in the Florida Derby. That race result standing alone is reason enough to like him, and during his gallop-out he remained far in front of the Florida Derby field.

18 STRONGHOLD - The son of Ghostzapper is tied for the lead in The Downey Profile rankings. I will box him in an exacta with the others in the Top 4, which I always do, but he lags in the other objective ratings and is hard for me to endorse.

I was told years ago that Ghostzapper is not a great sire of two-turn winners, and I notice the sire of Stronghold's dam is Jimmy Creed, who made his name sprinting.

Stronghold won the Santa Anita Derby by a slim margin over Imagination, who doesn't have the look of a top Triple Crown prospect. On the plus side, Stronghold and Imagination galloped out together in front of the rest far past the finish line.

I view his penultimate workout that took place at Santa Anita as the major one. It was very fast (46.60 -- too fast?). That was followed by a maintenance 59.80 breeze at Churchill Downs, where we saw a lot of fast workouts, with a gallop-out that was less than real strong probably by design.

19 RESILIENCE - An examination of Derby by the Speed Numbers shows his best figures at Brisnet where from the Wood Memorial he earned Top 4 numbers in both early speed and late pace as well as his overall number. In addition he is close to Top 4 territory with his Equibase figure. On the down side, his DRF Beyers of 90 in his last two races look dull by comparison.

Resilience's training at Churchill Downs has been excellent, with a single outstanding workout sandwiched between two others in a span that ran from April 18 to April 28. Technically, that's three works in 11 calendar days, but the old-timers call it "three works in 10 days," something you hardly see any more and that stands out in my mind. The second of the three works, Resilience ran nearly to the track kitchen and wanted to keep going. Can't hardly ask for better than that.

He has tactical speed that should serve him well from this wide post, and I think trainer Mott, a veteran who's won many big races, believes he's a stayer. However, the Wood Memorial gallop-out showed me something I didn't expect when Society Man easily outran Resilience. That may have been by design for each of them, it's impossible to know for sure. I put more emphasis on how he has moved forward in his training. Finally, Resilience's sire, Into Mischief, has been on a roll for several years. A lot to like with Resilience.

20 - SOCIETY MAN - It's odd he and his stable mate Dornoch drew opposite ends of the gate. The lone chestnut in the race unless Mugatu gets in. If this closer drops back very far, the wide post will seriously compromise him. A repeat of his Wood Memorial tactics, where he was never more than 4 1/2 lengths off the pace, would help him. He broke from the outside in that race too, post 10 of 12, and finished just 2 1/4 lengths behind Resilience.

As I mentioned above, the gallop-out in the Wood showed me something I didn't expect -- Society Man easily outran Resilience; however, each gallop-out may have been by design. In his works at Churchill Downs with stable mate Dornoch, Society Man has held his own, and I've seen him in good spirits bouncing on the track.

21 EPIC RIDE - A forward pace influence, he has to hit the go button from the far outside post, where will be unless Mugatu draws in. He chased a lively pace in the Blue Grass, and it did not work out well as he receded in the stretch and did not join Sierra Leone and Just a Touch as they led the gallop-out. Difficult to see him around at the finish, especially if Fierceness to his inside fires.

AE 22 MUGATU - In case Mugatu gets in, I can't help but notice he is very experienced with 12 starts; however, he has earned only $80,570 in the process. The $14,000 son of Blofeld has definitely improved this year, and anything is possible, but I will omit him from my wagering if he runs.

Good luck everyone, and as my friend Roxy Roxborough says, "May the odds be with you."

SAMPLE TRIFECTA BET
#17 FIERCENESS
with
#2 SIERRA LEONE
#4 CATCHING FREEDOM
#6 JUST STEEL
#11 FOREVER YOUNG
#19 RESILIENCE
with
#2 SIERRA LEONE
#3 MYSTIK DAN
#4 CATCHING FREEDOM
#5 CATALYTIC
#6 JUST STEEL
#7 HONOR MARIE
# 8 JUST A TOUCH
#11 FOREVER YOUNG
#12 TRACK PHANTOM
#19 RESILIENCE

A total of 45 bets.