Dick's Picks for Kentucky Derby 147
 

By Dick Downey
@DowneyProfile

Posted April 30, 2021 at 8:48 a.m. ET

Revised at 4:15 p.m. ET with revised possible exotic bets

I'll start by saying that being at Churchill Downs and in Louisville is a lot more fun this year than it was for Derby 146, a gloomy affair held four months too late. By the time last year's Kentucky Derby rolled around, I think some of us had Derby Fatigue. I know I did. Being back on schedule is like watching a sunrise. Hope is on the horizon.

The last two years have been tough. Between the disqualification and the pandemic, I think some fans have called it quits, and I wonder if it will take a while for the Derby to return to its glory. The 1994 baseball strike hurt the game, but it was temporary for a lot of fans because the passage of time is a great healer.

Two perhaps imponderable things will affect the 2021 Kentucky Derby. It's Lasix-free for the first time since I can remember, and the field will run in front of a large crowd for the first time.

Let's look at the crowd size first. Lots of the prep races were run with no spectators permitted at all. The Blue Grass had a big crowd on the track apron, but not all that many in the grandstand. I think the Arkansas Derby had about 16,000 fans. Doug O'Neill commented recently about 40,000 are expected for the Kentucky Derby.

I doubt the crowd factor is going to affect things, for one primary reason. Every year, horses run points races in front of crowds that are far smaller than a typical Derby day crowd. It will be like that this year, too, just scaled back on both fronts.

One thing we might not have is the "wall of sound" at the moment of truth, when heads turn for home after the opening mile, but there will be much more cheering, ruckus and commotion than ever before in the runners' careers, and that's the way it always is. Further, you can count on the crowd condensed around the Derby paddock being as -- loud? intimidating? party-mode? all of the above? -- as ever.

As for a Lasix-free event, who knows. None of these horses have run a points race with Lasix, so they are playing on a level field in that respect. I can't help but wonder if the low speed figures for some of them are connected to the absence of Lasix. Whatever, I am not inclined to allow speculation about this subject to influence my handicapping. It is simply impossible to predict which, if any, of these horses will suffer exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhaging.

With that happy thought, let's get on with the fun task of figuring this race out. We'll examine the field in order of post position.

1. KNOWN AGENDA (KY) (Irad Ortiz, Todd Pletcher) 6-1.  Known Agenda leads the Profile Buster Profile, and he is fifth in The Downey Profile rankings, but unfortunately he drew post 1.

The new starting gate, used for the first time in the 2020 Derby, is positioned so that the occupant of post 1 no longer has to take a slight right to get outside the inner rail. Known Agenda, a homebred son of Curlin, is a tough horse that runs with his head low, but he's not a big horse. The rush for horses to get position going into the first turn is a constant in the Derby. Horses down on the inside can get caught up in the squeeze, ruining their chance to win.

Known Agenda possesses the highest Equibase figure in the field, a 112 for his stirring Florida Derby victory, but he didn't even crack the top 4 Beyer or Brisnet figures awarded for the prep races going nine furlongs or more.

He ran 12-second furlongs the Florida Derby, hitting the mark at four of the five calls, and he finished the final 3/8 mile in well under 38 seconds, and this was on a track that wasn't hard as a rock -- the track variant was 12. He ran the fourth quarter-mile faster than any of the preceding quarters, which shows an ability to traverse turns, and that comes in really handy at Churchill Downs, knowm for its fairly tight turns.

Known Agenda's gallop-out after winning the Florida Derby was good, but not knock-out. He, Soup and Sandwich and Greatest Honour galloped out pretty much together, and moderately ahead of the rest of the field.

Known Agenda has improved as his races have gotten longer. Since finishing second to Highly Motivated sprinting in his debut, Known Agenda has run nine furlongs three times, and he won each of those races.

Known Agenda has been working well at Churchill Downs, but so have a lot of Derby horses. The thing about him, though, is that he is not considered to be an especially good work horse.

This colt is a stalker that has improved dramatically with the addition of blinkers. Trainer Pletcher recently said that Known Agenda will be around the back of the second flight early on. That is doable from post 1 -- if he doesn't get bumped around severely. It would surprise me if he wins because he has a disadvantageous post position, but it would not surprise me at all if he runs in the top four finishers.


2. LIKE THE KING (KY) (Drayden Van Dyke, Wesley Ward) 50-1.  This is trainer Ward's first Kentucky Derby horse. Recently he said it's nice to be part of the Derby with a horse that has a chance. To my mind, this is not a voice of confidence. Like the King was shipped over from Keeneland on Tuesday. I noted in Wednesday's and Thursday's Daily Derby Updates that Ward is not in Louisville.

Like the King debuted sprinting on dirt at Belterra Park, finishing second, and since then he's run middling speed figures on turf and synthetic except for one off-the-turf effort on a good track at Keeneland when he was beaten 12 lengths.

The son of Palace Malice garnered 100 Derby points by winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks, a race that was, before Churchill Downs purchased Turfway, worth 20 points to the winner.

In the Jeff Ruby gallop-out, Like the King led, with Hockey Dad outrunning Sainthood past the wire.

It is difficult for me to envision Like the King denting the superfecta, especially given his inner post position.


3. BROOKLYN STRONG (NY) (Umberto Rispoli, Daniel Velazquez) 50-1.  Brooklyn Strong, winner of the Remsen Stakes last November after being purchased by owner Schwartz for only $5,000, has been behind the 8-ball all year with a lack of conditioning -- trainer Velazquez said he was sick.

His first and only start this year resulted in an 82 Beyer and a fifth-place finish in the Wood Memorial, when he was beaten 4 3/4 lengths by Bourbonic. A review of the gallop-out shows Bourbonic showing energy well ahead of the remainder of the field. Crowded Trade (who finished third) and Weyburn (fourth) were alone in the second flight. Dynamic One was reined in shortly after the finish. Brooklyn Strong is not visible.

Owner Schwartz is 67 years old and has played the game at lower levels than this. I am told by someone who knows that when Schwartz saw a chance to be in the Kentucky Derby, he viewed it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and he took it. Who can blame him? I hope he has a good time, and I'm sure he will, but I don't see a Cinderella tale in progress here.

Anything can happen, as Mine That Bird reminded us in 2009, but it will be without my money if it involves Brooklyn Strong.


4. KEEPMEINMIND (KY) (David Cohen, Robertino Diodoro) 50-1.  Keepmeinmind, a son of the up-and-coming sire Laoban, is one of four horses listed at 50-1 on the morning line occupying the inside quadrant of the starting gate. This inner post should actually help him.

Connections opted to put him right in the race in the Toyota Blue Grass, but after bumping at the start and enduring a wide trip, he had nothing left when the going got going (as the Commish is fond of saying). He wasn't a factor in the gallop-out, either. In the Derby, they're taking off his blinkers and dropping back to make one run. He can save ground from post 4.

Keepmeinmind broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club and apparently loves the track. He worked fast at Churchill after running poorly in the Blue Grass, and he has put in strong gallops there as well. 

In the Derby, he needs a patient ride like he had in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he needs to show up at the top of the lane unscathed, and he needs to unleash a closing kick. The Kentucky Jockey Club did not produce fast opening fractions, yet Keepmeinmind came from five lengths off the lead to snag the win. I can't see him winning the Kentucky Derby, but he could pick up a piece or two at long odds.


5. SAINTHOOD (KY) (Corey Lanerie, Todd Pletcher) 50-1.  Sainthood is a game horse, a fact which was evidenced in his maiden-breaker and during one of the most troubled trips I've ever seen in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Although he finished seocond in the Ruby, I believe he was the best horse that day.

However in the Jeff Ruby gallop-out, winner Like the King led, with third finisher Hockey Dad outrunning Sainthood.

With Corey Lanerie aboard in the Derby, I'm looking for a rail-hugging trip. Sainthood has shown just-okay early speed, but it's better early speed than the horses to his inside possess. Wherever he winds up the first time past the finish line, Lanerie's challenge will be to hold his position in the first turn.

Workouts at Churchill Downs have been in company with Florida Derby winner Known Agenda, and he's not disappointed connections with his efforts.

His sire, Mshawish, is not a household name in the world of breeding, but he earned $2,421,351 in his 24-race career.

On the down side, although Sainthood has strong ownership, his Beyer from the Ruby is a modest 84, he's a relatively inexpensive horse, he's lightly raced, and he didn't gallop out strongly at Turfway. He will have to step up his game in major proportion to challenge for the win, and he will have to step it up a lot to challenge for fourth. If some of the big boys falter, it's possible -- if he moves forward from the Ruby.


6. O BESOS (KY) (Marcelino Pedroza, Greg Foley) 20-1.  He ranks terribly in The Downey Profile and in the Profile Busters Profile, but still...Greg Foley has been walking on air. After years and years of training at Churchill Downs, and his best horse perhaps being Champali almost 20 years ago, this trainer from a family of trainers has a live wire going into the Kentukcy Derby.

O Besos was sent off in the Louisiana Derby at 28-1 odds and finished third, beaten only two lengths by Hot Rod Charlie and a head by Midnight Bourbon. If you are purely a gambler wanting a price with a shot, here is a prospect.

O Besos, whose name comes from his pedigree (a combo of Orb and the Spanish word for kisses), ranks among the four horses (along with Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon) with the best DRF combined speed-track variant figure for his effort in the Louisiana Derby. In fact, if we use that measure of speed, and only that measure of speed, the Louisiana Derby was easily the strongest Kentucky Derby prep. Add to that the fact that O Besos ran 12's and finished fastest of everything in the race in well under 38 seconds.

On top of that, after the finish line he out-galloped Hot Rod Charlie a bit.

His April 13 breeze was killer, and on April 22 he further impressed onlookers with his development and acceleration through the second turn of the work, which started and ended (not counting the gallop-out) in the middle of both turns.

Foley makes no bones about it. The plan is to gallop him to the top of the stretch and make one run. Player underneath. If he wins, more power to him.


7. MANDALOUN (KY) (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox) 15-1. It's just me, but his name sounds like a classic rock album title. But enough of that. This horse is magnificent in the mornings. He works like a flashy machine. I'm thinking no other horse at Churchill Downs the past 10 days has been better in the mornings than Mandaloun.

He is the War of Will of this Kentucky Derby. War of Will won the Risen Star (albeit at 1 1/16 mile in 2019, and Mandaloun won the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star while running 12's and finishing in under 38 seconds. And Like War of Will, he stunk up the Louisiana Derby. War of Will finished ninth, beaten 12 lengths, and Mandaloun finished sixth, beaten 11 3/4 lengths. And, just like War of Will, he has trained up to the Kentucky Derby like a bear.

I don't know what to do with him. I personally don't think he can win the Kentucky Derby off such a mediocre effort, but then again there's always the specter of 1995 winner Thunder Gulch, who was awful in the Blue Grass. So what do you do? Play him just in case? I might buy a $20 saver win ticket on him. Otherwise, in my opinion, he's playable underneath but might just as easily finish seventh like War of Will did in the Kentucky Derby.

In countless interviews, trainer Cox has said the stable could not find anything wrong with Mandaloun after the Louisiana Derby, and that he had trained well going into that race. Maybe he really likes to train, but racing not as much. We will find out on Saturday.


8. MEDINA SPIRIT (FL) (John Velazquez, Bob Baffert) 15-1.  Whether or not you like Bob Baffert, give him credit for saying what he thinks Derby week. If he has a horse he thinks can win the Derby, he says it's great to be at Churchill Downs with a horse that has a good chance to win. If he doesn't, he says things like, "this is a top 10 horse, not a top five horse" which is what he's saying now.

Still, Medina Spirit is a fighter with good early speed. I am informed he was not 100 percent for the Santa Anita Derby, and that he is 100 percent now. If that assessment is accurate, he could take this field deep into the stretch. I'm not on the Win wagon with Medina Spirit, but plenty of tired horses will be unable to get by him in the stretch if he runs his race. He's a fighter that runs with his head low, and he tries hard every time.

There is a question about the distance. Rock Your World was in his own zip code in the Santa Anita Derby gallop-out. Medina Spirit was not visible on TV during the gallop-out.


9. HOT ROD CHARLIE ((KY) Flavien Prat, Doug O’Neill) 8-1. He is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. On the surface, there appear to be some drawbacks, but are they really?

First, there's the Joel Rosario issue. Rosario rode Hot Rod Charlie his last two races, but he was also riding Concert Tour, who was 3-5 going into the Arkansas Derby, for trainer Baffert. After Concert Tour stubbed his toe in Hot Springs, Rosario was in a state of limbo for several days as folks waited to see whether Concert Tour, who was shipped to Churchill Downs, would run in the Kentucky Derby. Hot Rod Charlie's camp wanted a commitment to ride in the Derby, but Rosario was in limbo with Concert Tour, and as we learned later, a chance to ride Rock Your World was developing. O'Neill got in touch with Flavien Prat, who was willing to commit, so Prat got the mount.

There is some of this and some of that in the story, and I do take it only as a bit of a negative for Hot Rod Charlie because Prat is super-talented and because Rosario has a long-standing relationship with John Sadler, Rock Your World's trainer.

Second, Mike Welsch wrote that he didn't like what he saw from Hot Rod Charlie on Tuesday at Churchill Downs. 'Hot Rod' arrived at the track on Sunday, jogged on Monday, and on Tuesday he merely jogged again with Lava Man, thus prompting Welsch to wonder if he was going to have to "wave the red flag." By the way, I admire and like Mike and his talent. But I was trackside that morning, and what I saw was a horse jogging with his neck bowed, a horse that was focused on his business, and the only Derby contender who'd shown me that look.

On Wednesday, Hot Rod Charlie was allowed to gallop, and Welsch described the exercise as "a high-spirited gallop that concluded with a seemingly impromptu mini-blowout down the backstretch." With that gallop, concern about the previous day's jog dissipated.

Third, there's that Louisiana Derby thing. The race has barely made a dent in the Kentucky Derby over the last 30 years. I can't argue with that.

Fourth, after the finish line in the Louisiana Derby, he was out-galloped just a bit by O Besos.

But as pointed out above, in at least one respect (based on combined speed-track variant figures) the Louisiana Derby was a strong prep race. Further, the 99 Beyer earned by Hot Rod Charlie is second in the field only to the 100 earned by Rock Your World in the Santa Anita Derby.

HRC can't be a Profile Buster because he's a Top 4 horse in The Downey Profile, but over the years I've noticed that Top 4 horses that also get a lot of Profile Buster points do well in the Derby. Known Agenda, who is not a Top 4 horse in the Profile, leads the Profile Busters with six points. Hot Rod Charlie has five.

He ran 12's in the Louisiana Derby, which is only 1/16 mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, and he finished in less than 38 seconds.

Last year, 'Hot Rod' was beaten less than a length by the presumptive favorite, Essential Quality, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That was his second start with blinkers. Trainer O'Neill has been saying lately that he and Hot Rod Charlie finally got on the same page -- that onnce O'Neill stopped viewing him as the half-brother of chamption sprinter Mitole and added blinkers, he became a two-turn dirt horse.

Hot Rod Charlie demonstrated he can ship well when he won in New Orleans after being flown in from southern California, and he appears to have settled in well at Churchill Downs.

I was on the backside in 2012 when I'll Have Another arrived from the airport on a van. I was back there with Darren Rogers. Two things happened. I told Darren that I'll Have Another had about the plainest-looking head I'd ever seen on a Derby horse. At the same time, the hands working for trainer O'Neill were high-fiveing and such. I did not have enough sense to believe what I was seeing, which was that they were jubilant about how their horse was doing.

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, it's about more than numbers. The Downey Profile is a numbers-driven creation, but sometimes we can see or sense things. During the post position draw ceremony Tuesday morning, only one table of connections broke into shouts and clapping when their horse got his name called. You know who it was. There's going to be 150 of them by this weekend. During a conference call last week, O'Neill expressed some disappointment that "only" 40,000 people would be at the Derby. This week, he has a sense of calm confidence about him. In short, I see talent and I feel a vibe. I hope I'm right.


10. MIDNIGHT BOURBON (KY) (Mike Smith, Steve Asmussen) 20-1. Here is another horse with potential value after finishing second to Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby by two lengths. It wasn't long after Life Is Good was injured that Mike Smith signed on to ride this
$525,000 son of Tiznow, replacing Joe Talamo. The colt has not been off the board in seven starts. Among his other accomplishments, he ran second at Churchill in the Iroquois last year. He's never raced at less than a mile and has competed at four tracks.

Like Hot Rod Charlie and O Besos, he ran 12's and finished in under 38 seconds in the Louisiana Derby. In the Louisiana Derby gallop-out, O Besos out-galloped Hot Rod Charlie by just a bit, followed a few lengths back by Midnight Bourbon.

He's been working well at Churchill Downs, and I like it that his final pre-Derby breeze was solo. I think there is some concern he might get anxious in the paddock. Trainer Asmussen and top assistant Scott Blasi walked him around and around and around the paddock yesterday.

Aside from his consistency, there's his trainer's opinion. Trackside Wednesday morning, Rosie Napravnik commented that trainer Asmussen personally escorted him onto the track with his pony. He doesn't want to be very far away from him. Contender if he holds it together.


11. DYNAMIC ONE (KY) (Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher) 20-1.  He's a $725,000 son of Union Rags. It took him a while to come around, but in a span of two races Dynamic One broke his maiden and finished second in the Wood Memorial after leading late only to be nailed by stable mate Bourbonic.

A review of the gallop-out shows Bourbonic showing energy well ahead of the remainder of the field. Crowded Trade (who finished third) and Weyburn (fourth) were alone in the second flight. Dynamic One was reined in shortly after the finish.

Yes, he's been working great at Churchill Downs, but his speed figures indicate he would have to advance by a leap and two bounds to do damage on May 1. Anything can happen, of course. Maybe play underneath in case the Toddster has him that ready.


12. HELIUM (KY) (Julien Leparoux, Mark Casse) 50-1. A son of turf star Ironicus that fetched $55,000 at the sale. He's a pretty mover, but I cannot endorse a lightly-raced horse that made it to the Kentucky Derby by winning a 1 1/16-mile race eight weeks before Derby, only to be benched, and I mean immediately benched, until Derby day.


13. HIDDEN STASH (KY) (Rafael Bejarano, Vicki Oliver) 50-1.  Last year, Hidden Stash ran pretty well twice at Churchill Downs. His Beyer figs have improved some since then, but his Brisnet figures this year are about the same as the figures he got in those races last year. Either way, his figures indicate he would need to improve tremendously since the Blue Grass to make the superfecta.


14. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (KY) (Luis Saez, Brad Cox) 2-1. I think this horse can win the Kentucky Derby. I'm a little concerned about the brief gallop-out following his last workout, but not much. I think it was by design. In my opinion, his penultimate breeze was the important one, and it was a good one with a nice gallop-out to upper stretch with Spa City, a 4yo horse that tough-loves the track in the mornings, just not so much in the afternoons.

His win record is perfect, from sprinting to routing to fast tracks to a sloppy one. He is athletic, and he has the will to win. What else? Oh yes, he has won after pressing the pace, stalking, and closing from almost 10 lengths back. Pace-dependent he is not.

This is a son of Tapit that won his debut. Often, Tapit's progeny must be handled patiently at first and need more time than that to get to the winner's circle. 

Besides all that, this horse has a presence about him on the track. He is an alpha horse, the same as I view Hot Rod Charlie.

Essential Quality ranks number one in The Downey Profile. With four points in the Profile Busters category, he made a decent showing but is not at the top. He's among the top four horses in four of six different speed figure categories I examined, tied with Highly Motivated.

What else can we say that you haven't seen everywhere else. Oh yes, he ran a perfect race in the Blue Grass, hitting 12-second furlongs at every call and finishing in under 38 seconds. He and Highly Motivated are the only two horses the field that can boast those credentials. 

In the Blue Grass gallop-out, Highly Motivated was just a touch in front of Essential Quality, followed closely by Rombauer.

He may or may not win, but I am confident he cannot be left off tickets.


15. ROCK YOUR WORLD (KY) (Joel Rosario, John Sadler) 5-1.  Maybe there's not a whole lot to say about a horse with only three starts,but let's see. The $650,000 son of Candy Ride took a path to the Derby similar in some respects to that of Big Brown, who also had only three prior starts. Both of them debuted on turf (Big Brown as a 2-year-old, RYW as a 3-year-old). Big Brown was put on dirt in his second start; Rock Your World did that in his third start. Both of them, when put on dirt, immediately ran big speed figures. Both of them won a major Derby prep race. And both went into the Kentucky Derby undefeated.

Big Brown ran two big figures on dirt before the Kentucky Derby. Rock Your World ran one. His Beyer figures jumped from 82 to 100 in the Santa Anita Derby. The difference in his Brisnet and Equibase figs isn't as extreme (91 to 102 Brisnet; 94 to 103 Equibase). So is he a bounce waiting to happen, or is he a horse that just happens to have improved a lot and/or is that much better on dirt?

Despite his unusual path to the Kentucky Derby, Rock Your World is in The Downey Profile Top 4. He couldn't be a Profile Buster because he's a Profile horse, but I'll note that he doesn't fare well in the Profile Busters Profile.

In the Santa Anita Derby, both Rock Your World and Medina Spirit ran fast early and slow late. As a result, neither ran 12-second furlongs or finished in 38 seconds or less. Yet, as noted in our analysis of his fractional times in Section 4, he employed tactics that have become a model for winning the Kentucky Derby in recent years. See Section 7 for details about those tactics, but basically it involves running other horses off their feet early so that they're too tired to pass when you slow down. In the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World sprinted to the lead, then moderated and dictated the pace while others were unable to pass him.

Rock Your World was in his own zip code in the Santa Anita Derby gallop-out, and he returned to be unsaddled with his ears pricked.

He has high action, which is often seen in turf horses. It's all about the efficiency of stride, but whether he has an efficient stride or not, he's a fast horse.

I expect Rock Your World to go for the lead again in the Kentucky Derby. We'll discuss that further below. He's never taken dirt in a race, and he may not on Saturday either.


16. KING FURY (KY) (Brian Hernandez, Jr, Ken McPeek) 20-1. SCRATCHED. This $950,000 purchase, the highest price in the field, turned a lot of heads with his breakout win in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. At age two, he won the Street Sense at Churchill but flopped in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Jockey Club. He was turned out after that to just be a horse. Connections' decision was wise, as evidenced by his visually impressive comeback outing in the Lexington.

He followed that up with impressive work in Louisville that's caught many an eye.

I was at Keeneland with Mike "Cheap Speed" Pearson in 1999 when Charismatic emerged in the Lexington. We discussed how impressive he was. Did we bet him in the Derby? No, we overlooked him at 31-1 odds like almost everyone else.

I've already taken a stand elsewhere, but I'll make a saver win bet on him, and for me he's a must-use on the bottom of tickets. I will say further that if he moves forward off his 96 Beyer speed figure in the Lexington (95 Brisnet fig, 103 Equibase fig) in this, his second start off the layoff, he will be right there at the end of the race. He's a son of Curlin, so the distance should not be an issue if he's ready to roll. Contender.


17. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (KY) (Javier Castellano, Chad Brown) 10-1.  Let's talk about the good stuff first.

He has top connections. A son of prominent stallion Into Mischief, owned by Wall Street guru Seth Klarman and trained by Chad Brown.

In his first start going two turns, Highly Motivated ran 12-second furlongs at every call of the Blue Grass, and he finished in under 38 seconds. In the Blue Grass gallop-out, Highly Motivated was just a touch in front of Essential Quality, followed closely by Rombauer.

He's among the top four horses in four of six different speed figure categories I examined, tied with Essential Quality for the most mentions. He's not ranked in The Downey Profile Top 4 (he's sixth), but Highly Motivated has five Profile Buster points, putting him just one point behind the top Profile Buster, Known Agenda.

A bit of doubt crept in the last two weeks. His first workout after the Blue Grass was not all that. After going five furlongs in 1:00.20, Highly Motivated galloped out six in 1:15.60. Trainer Brown said he was enthused anyway, and I commented in the workouts section of the subscription page that we should pay attention to that. It doesn't appear to have been intended as his major Derby work.

The next breeze, which occurred last Saturday, was much better. Highly Motivated easily galloped out better than his mate, had his ears pricked at the end, and exercise rider Peter Roman gave him a strong pat on the neck before the colt walked off the track well within himself.

This week, DRF's Mike Welsch has been watching Highly Motivated closely and has commented that he did not gallop as well as before on Tuesday, was still not galloping as well as before on Wednesday and "only jogged" Thursday on a sloppy-sealed track. Basically, the concern is that, to Welsch, he looks stiff. 

On the other hand, trainer Brown said Wednesday, “I like the way he’s going, I thought he was moving a little better today. He had a strong work and now, the second day back galloping out of the breeze, he’s loosening up again and looks super. I’m really happy with him.” Sometimes it's hard to know whether it's fair to parse another person's words -- often it's not -- but if we are going to be picky, Brown said "he's loosening up again," not "he's loosened up."

All things considered, I've been sore from exertion before, and it always passes in a few days. I am inclined to view Highly Motivated favorably.


18. SUPER STOCK (KY) (Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen) 30-1.  The personal story behind the son of Dialed In is wonderful, and I'm happy for all of the connections. Super Stock has looked good on the track at Churchill Downs. The draw reins that were used to control him during training have been off since at least Tuesday. He won the Arkansas Derby and ranks in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile; however, he finished slowly in the Arkansas Derby, just not as slowly as pacesetters Caddo River and Concert Tour, both of whom were subsequently removed from consideration for the Kentucky Derby. In my opinion, Super Stock can't run fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby.


19. SOUP AND SANDWICH (FL) (Tyler Gaffalione, Mark Casse) 30-1.  He ran big in the Florida Derby and, in my opinion, has been training well at Churchill Downs. With only three prior starts, Soup and Sandwich is inexperienced and obviously still learning, but he's shown energy on the track at Churchill, not wanting to be pulled up from a long gallop-out after his last work.

We note that John Velazquez opted to ride Medina Spirit instead of Soup and Sandwich, but that could be a function of Johnny V's connection to the Baffert barn, and let's face it, Medina Spirit is more accomplished than Soup and Sandwich. Jockey Gaffalione can be aggressive and probably will give Soup and Sandwich an aggressive ride. I think the son of formidable stallion Into Mischief is playable underneath.

By the way, he's named so well, being bred and owned by Campbell's Soup heiress Charlotte Weber, owner of Live Oak Stud and its racing counterpart Live Oak Plantation.


20. BOURBONIC (KY) (Kendrick Carmouche, Todd Pletcher) 30-1.  He ran slow speed figures when winning the Wood Memorial, but there are a few things to like. Surprising to me, he's tied for second in the Profile Busters Profile. A review of the Wood Memorial gallop-out shows Bourbonic showing energy well ahead of the remainder of the field. Crowded Trade (who finished third) and Weyburn (fourth) were alone in the second flight. Dynamic One was reined in shortly after the finish. Brooklyn Strong is not visible.

However, I cannot endorse him. Dynamic One has been working better than Bourbonic. But the biggest problem is that Bourbonic is going to make one late run, which means he needs to save ground, but he has to make his way to the rail all the way over from post 20.

CLOSING THOUGHTS, SELECTIONS AND PLAYS

First and foremost,thank you for supporting The Downey Profile, and I hope you enjoy Derby weekend!

The weather is forecast to be perfect on Derby day. The track will be fast. How fast is up to the track superintendent. I hope he doesn't give us a hard track producing multiple track records. I am pulling for a fair track.

Knowledgeable people here in Louisville say this is a wide open Derby. I believe one of the favorites will win the Derby but that it is not reasonable to think is wide open. We have several horses with very few career starts, and one of those could show marked improvement.

I view Medina Spirit (post 8), Rock Your World (post 15) and Soup and Sandwich (post 19) as the most likely pacesetters. Quite frankly, if Medina Spirit breaks well, I expect to see him lead the way. If that happens, I don't think Rock Your World will necessarily be thrown off his game, but he won't be loose on the lead, either, and he could eat dirt for the first time in his career. How he and jockey Rosario handle that, if it happens, is anyone's guess. With his post position in the outer quadrant of the gate, I don't think taking dirt will be an issue.

In theory, Mandaloun (post 7), Hot Rod Charlie (post 9) and Midnight Bourbon (post 10) could track Medina Spirit (post 8) to the first turn, while Essential Quality (post 14) and Highly Motivated (post 17) are in good position to track Rock Your World (post 15) or Soup and Sandwich (post 19).

Position on the first turn is important. If Medina Spirit and/or Rock Your World run the first quarter-mile in 22 and change, the stalkers could get good trips, i.e., have some room, going into the first bend. But can they afford to allow the frontrunner(s) to get loose? On the other hand, there is a strong case that the pace will not be all that fast. If the first quarter-mile is moderate, the first turn, at least in theory, will be more crowded. Here's where an agile horse and/or a good jockey can make a difference.

Given a good trip, I hope that Hot Rod Charlie is no more than two or three wide entering the first turn, begins his challenge to the leader on the backstretch, improves his position in the far turn and hammers down on the lead before the furlong marker.

Before we go, let's look at the best margins of victory in two-turn stakes races. The top race horses finish clear of the pack. In post position order: Known Agenda won the Florida Derby by 2 3/4 lengths. Hot Rod Charlie won the Louisiana Derby by two lengths. Essential Quality won the Southwest Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths. Rock Your World won the Pasadena Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths and the Santa Anita Derby by 4 1/4 lengths. King Fury won the Lexington Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths. Super Stock won the Arkansas Derby by 2 1/2 lengths.

As a reminder, The Downey Profle Top 4 are, in order of rank, Essential Quality, Super Stock, Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie (the latter one being my top selection). The Profile Buster Profile yields Known Agenda as the top Profile Buster horse.

DICK'S PICKS

1. HOT ROD CHARLIE
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD
out KING FURY -SCRATCHED
4. KNOWN AGENDA
5. MEDINA SPIRIT

6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED

HARD TO LEAVE OUT

MIDNIGHT BOURBON

LONGSHOTS I LIKE MOST (in post position order)

MANDALOUN
O BESOS

LONGSHOTS WITH A PRAYER (in post position order)

KEEPMEINMIND, DYNAMIC ONE, SOUP AND SANDWICH

It's a horse race, and anything can happen. Let's make it happen! Thank you again, and good luck.
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My exacta plays (REVISED)

HOT ROD CHARLIE
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, ROCK YOUR WORLD

ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
HOT ROCK CHARLIE

Each play amounts to six bets.
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Solid trifecta play (REVISED)

ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, ROCK YOUR WORLD

This play amounts to 60 bets.
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Alternate trifecta plays (REVISED)

ESSENTIAL QUALITY (if you like him best and want to single him)
with
HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, O BESOS, ROCK YOUR WORLD

or

HOT ROD CHARLIE (if you want to single him)
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, O BESOS, ROCK YOUR WORLD

Either play amounts to 36 bets.
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Gamble on more horses trifecta play (REVISED)

ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
DYNAMIC ONE, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, KEEPMEINMIND, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MANDALOUN, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, O BESOS, ROCK YOUR WORLD, SOUP AND SANDWICH

This play amounts to 120 bets.
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My superfecta plays (REVISED)

HOT ROD CHARLIE
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KING FURY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KING FURY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
DYNAMIC ONE, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KEEPMEINMIND, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MANDALOUN, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, O BESOS, ROCK YOUR WORLD, SOUP AND SANDWICH

This play amounts to 180 bets

ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KING FURY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KNOWN AGENDA, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
HOT ROD CHARLIE
with
ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KING FURY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KNOWN AGENDA, MEDINA SPIRIT, ROCK YOUR WORLD
with
DYNAMIC ONE, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HIGHLY MOTIVATED, KEEPMEINMIND, KING FURY, KNOWN AGENDA, MANDALOUN, MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, O BESOS, ROCK YOUR WORLD, SOUP AND SANDWICH

This play amounts to 144 bets