Derby By The Speed Numbers

OR

Who'll Get To The Eighth Pole First?

Our Chart Of Side-By-Side Speed Figures

By Dick Downey

Posted April 28, 2021

In 62 of the last 66 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader. In all, 49 of the last 66 winners, or 74%, were on the lead at the eighth pole
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In 2020, Authentic was ahead by a length. In 2019, Maximum Security also led by a length with a furlong left - but was disqualified. In 2018, Justify led by 2 1/2 lengths at the all-important eighth pole. In 2017, Always Dreaming led by three lengths at the eighth-pole. In 2016, Nyquist led by 2 1/2 lengths at the eighth pole. In 2015, American Pharoah had poked his head in front at that point of the race. In 2014, California Chrome led by five lengths at the furlong marker. In 2013, Orb was second, 2 1/2 lengths off the lead at the eighth pole. In 2012, I'll Have Another was second, three lengths off the lead with a furlong left. In 2011, Animal Kingdom didn't qualify for this stat, but he was about as close as you can get -- third by by 1 1/2 length at the eighth pole. In 2010, Super Saver was two lengths the best at the furlong marker. Mine That Bird was one length ahead at the eighth pole in 2009. Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, was 2 1/2 lengths ahead. In 2007, Street Sense was up by a length, and in 2006, Barbaro was four lengths in front at the eighth pole. The 2005 winner, Giacomo, was an exception to the rule. He was in sixth place at the eighth pole, almost three lengths off the lead held by Closing Argument at that moment.

Top 4 Numbers: Nine Furlong Speed Figures Side-By-Side

Only 1 1/8-mile or longer races run at age three are presented

DRF Beyer Speed Fig: Essential Quality (97), Highly Motivated (97), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Mandaloun (98), Rock Your World (100)

DRF Combined Speed-Track Variant: Hot Rod Charlie (109), Mandalouon (108), O Besos (107), Midnight Bourbon (107)

Brisnet Speed Fig: Essential Quality (102), Highly Motivated (102), Known Agenda (101), Rock Your World (102)

Brisnet Combined E1-E2: Midnight Bourbon (210), Medina Spirit (210), Mandaloun (205), Rock Your World (216), Super Stock (205)

Brisnet LP: Bourbonic (109), Essential Quality (106), Highly Motivated (105), Known Agenda (112)

Equibase Speed Fig: Known Agenda (112), Essential Quality (109), Highly Motivated (108), Soup and Sandwich (108)

NUMBER OF MENTIONS

Essential Quality (4)

Highly Motivated (4)

Known Agenda (3)

Rock Your World (3)

Mandaloun (3)

Hot Rod Charlie (2)

Midnight Bourbon (2)

Bourbonic (1)

Medina Spirit (1)

O Besos (1)

Soup and Sandwich (1)

Super Stock (1)

Beyer Speed Figures, Speed and Track Variant

The Beyer Speed Figures, a well-known staple at Daily Racing Form, are complemented by the publication's pure speed rating and track variant figures, explained succinctly as follows.

The speed rating is a comparison of a horse's final time with the best time at the distance at that track in the last three years. The best time is given a rating of 100. One point is deducted for each fifth of a second by which a horse fails to equal that time. In Hot Rod Charlie's case, he broke the track record and was given an elevated pure speed figure.

To compute the track variant, the speed ratings of all winners in each type of race on a card are added together and an average is computed, which is deducted from 100. The lower the track variant, the faster the track, or the better the overall quality of competition that day, according to Daily Racing Form. Conversely, a higher track variant almost always means a slower track.

Brisnet Figures

Brisnet has its own method of calculating speed figures. Brisnet also uses pace numbers to evaluate horses' speed in the early and late stages of races, called E1, E2 and LP.

E1 is the pace rating of the horse from the start to the first call, and E2 is the pace rating of the horse from the start to the second call.

LP is the pace rating of the horse from the second call to the finish of the race.

Equibase Figures

Equibase has its own method of calculating speed figures.

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