Kentucky Derby 147: Early Pace Makes The Race

By Greg “The Commish” Johnson
Posted April 30, 2021 at 10:16 a.m. ET

Updated 3:14 p.m. ET (King Fury scratch)

Great to be back on this the first Saturday in May. Looks like Churchill Downs will also be welcoming back a beautiful day, with a dry, fast track for the Run for the Roses.

My angle this year is pretty straightforward. The top flight of early speed may very well be the ones to kick it in when the going gets going late. So away we go with laying it all out there as I have in the past. Pretenders, Contenders, “The Sixth Man,” and The Top 5, with their post positions.


THE PRETENDERS

LIKE THE KING (2) rallied late to take the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. Great ride by jockey Drayden Van Dyke overcoming significant trouble on the turn. He retains the mount for this dance, but his speed figures are far below many of these and exits a race against horses I do not see as in the same league with these, so let’s move on.

BROOKLYN STRONG (3) was pretty high on many lists late last year after taking the Remsen, where he bettered Known Agenda that day. His return to the races was off the board in the scary slow Wood Memorial. Surprised to see him here, after connections were pretty adamant about bringing this gelding around slowly, but Derby fever being what it is, he became the last to make it in. Tab for later on if he comes out of this in one piece.

KEEPMEINMIND (4) is a sentimental favorite here at TDP, but his two races this year are far below par. To his credit, he did flash a brilliant workout last week, and did win the Kentucky Jockey Club, both events coming over this surface at CD. Since I am not favoring stone cold closers in this fray, I will have to pass with my money.

SAINTHOOD (5) is a lightly raced son of Mshawish, who ran along well in the Jeff Ruby Steaks to get second and stamp his ticket to the Derby. Not crazy about that prep race that produced speed figures that will not compete against these, so as with Like the King, I think they will be crowning someone else after the race.

DYNAMIC ONE (11) is one of two Todd Pletcher ponies that got into this race from the Wood Memorial, when he finished a bad-beat second. Connections forked out $725K for him at the Keeneland September Sale, and to this point he has a long way to go to recoup that. Clearly on the improve despite taking four races to break his maiden, so a tab for later on may be in order as he enters the deeper waters.

HELIUM (12) is a perfect three-for-three, with an impressive win in the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start of the year. Patiently handled by trainer Mark Casse, who chose to bring in a fresh horse, and give him the acid test in the biggest race in our land. Even though his speed figures do not compete with these, he looks to have a bright future, and I will keep an eye on him into the big summer races as he matures.

HIDDEN STASH (13) faded in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at a distance an eighth of a mile shorter than the Derby. His top Beyer Speed Figures are about 15 lengths or more away from the speedsters in this fray, and with that I will have to toss.

SUPER STOCK (18), the Arkansas Derby winner, is 30-1 on the morning line. Didn’t he beat Concert Tour? Concert Tour was a top three Derby contender before that race easy. Hmm. You cannot knock that effort, he is clearly improving as he races up the class ladder, and connections are very high on him. Not crazy at all about his post position, having little speed and surrounded by it on both sides. So as I am taking a pass on closers, he ends up here on this analysis.

SOUP AND SANDWICH (19) is a horse I really like, and bet him in the Florida Derby, where a good second place landed him here. I think his fate has been chosen drawing post 19. He needs to step on it early, so he does not get an ugly wide trip around that dreaded clubhouse turn. Training well at Churchill, he is one of the toughest to toss, as it just seems he has got a lot to overcome to be a contender.

BOURBONIC (20) shocked the world by taking the Wood Memorial in a pedestrian time. He will be far back early, and frankly looks to be a bigger shocker than Mine That Bird, so proceed with caution.


THE CONTENDERS

KNOWN AGENDA (1) drew the dreaded rail. It seems like a long time since a true contender ended up there. Trainer Todd Pletcher was not too happy, but he did point out the gate for this race being shifted over allows more room to get away straight and forward. Note also, Known Agenda did have a nice ground saving trip winning the Florida Derby. He may have to be used early more than he would like from down there, and he is still the most likely to get banged around. On the improve, but for now I am going to take a stance against and perhaps wait for the Belmont.

MANDALOUN (7) threw in a clunker in the Louisiana Derby after taking the Risen Star in his previous effort at Fair Grounds with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. He sports enough early speed to get good position early. This son of Into Mischief been very highly touted all year and has been training like a monster over this surface since April 10. You will get great odds on him and I cannot fault anyone that uses him up and down and all around.

KING FURY (16) quietly stepped up into the spotlight with a good-looking win in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 10, with a 96 Beyer Speed figure. Note this guy ran in nothing but stakes races immediately after breaking his maiden at first asking and is the only horse in the race with two wins over this surface. This son of Curlin had one of the more impressive workouts last week and galloped out strong. I think this guy will be closer up early then you might think, as he was in both his wins here. This $950K yearling purchase looks to have a big shot on Saturday.

MEDINA SPIRIT (8) is the last man standing for trainer Bob Baffert, and we know all too well he knows how to bring them in ready to rumble every time. Bob recently said in an interview that he likes to bring a top 5 horse to the dance, and this guy is more of a top 10. Not the confidence I like to see by any means. Nevertheless, he is a real trier and did run two good seconds to Rock Your World and Life is Good. It speaks volumes to his ability to run with these. Tough to dismiss underneath.


THE SIXTH MAN

(Yeah, he is the guy that better not bust up my everything coming from the clouds and draining a bunch of three pointers late in the game to mess up my exotics.)

O BESOS (6) may very well be the most consistently improving horse of the bunch this year. Love to see a pony raising his Beyer Speed figures (77, 83. 88 and 96) in four consecutive races this year as he moves up in class. He is training well at Churchill Downs and is unequivocally exactly the kind of runner that busts my “speed rules” concept if the big dogs up front get tired at the top of the stretch.


THE TOP 5

5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (10) is a very consistent sort who has shown up big time in all his derby preps this year, including a wire-to-wire win in the LeComte at Fairgrounds on Jan. 16. He has posted 93, 96, and 96 Beyer Speed figures consecutively in his prep races this year, all on or very near the front end. This feisty son of Tiznow has been training well at Churchill Downs, but apparently is not crazy about bath time. We will not hold that against him. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith gladly takes the reins, and that guy is one of the best around on the front end. An improvement off that good second place finish in behind Hot Rod Charlie in the Louisiana Derby puts him in the hunt all the way around the track.

4 HOT ROD CHARLIE (9) has proved time and time again that his brilliant performance in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile behind Essential Quality was no fluke, despite going off at 94-1. The Derby will be his third start this year, after a front-running win in the Louisiana Derby, boasting a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The only knock I would have on the son of Oxbow would be red-hot Joel Rosario deciding to ride Rock Your World. I have always said it is very rare that a guy of this caliber chooses wrong, but that was a tough decision any way you squeeze it. Another who should be right in the thick of things from start to finish.

3 ESSENTIAL QUALITY (14) brings his completely unblemished five-for-five record into the one everyone surrounding him has obviously been waiting for. The fastest winning times of the bunch at a mile and a sixteen and a mile and an eighth. to date. He can tango with them from the get-go or sit right off the speed and wave adios as he is accustomed to. This time of year, it seems there is always going to be a wise guy or two that questions a son of Tapti to get this classic distance. Working and training well, time to stop the talk and open the gates. An obvious win contender.

2 ROCK YOUR WORLD (15) did just that in his first try on the dirt, the Santa Anita Derby, and walloped them gate to wire. I immediately noticed his gallop out was effortless and strong. Plenty left in the tank. Then to hear trainer Bob Baffert say the exact same thing and how impressed he was. Just a friendly endorsement from a guy who knows a thing or two about what it takes to win this race. I am good with the post positions for my top three, with this guy taking the lead as they hit the clubhouse turn, my winner below right behind and then this guy keeping an eye on things from a comfortable placement down the backstretch to immortality. If there is a guy on the rise, a “now” horse, and a pony that can take this gate to wire, he’s your man. One of my right-on-tops.

(A quick shout out to my wife Shelley, who way back on January 18 put this guy in her Kentucky Derby Fantasy Challenge Stable, and Super Stock, too. I thought she was mad. Where did she find these horses? Never question wifey; she can really pick em’.)

1 HIGHLY MOTIVATED (17) set a track record at Keeneland during his two-year-old campaign so we have known for a while he is plenty fast. The first start of the year, he got away poorly on a slow track but finished up well. Just stretching the legs and getting the ball rolling. Straight to Keeneland with this guy to try two turns for the first time, and Essential Quality. Lots of confidence from connections of a Derby hopeful with not enough points to get in.

He took the lead and stayed around well to the end against the champ, running the fastest time of any of these in his first mile and an eighth, two turn race. Watching the replay, it really did not look like jockey Javier Castellano was really all out pushing him, just letting him glide over that track he loves in high-speed cruise control. I usually do not get all excited about pre-race interviews, but something about the calm confidence displayed by Chad Brown, and having no question about the distance, sold me. I think he may taking a little money, so 8-1 or less would confirm others are thinking the same thing I am. All systems go go go.

Superstitions or folklore always run rampant for when the Roses are up for grabs. My personal favorite this year comes from the Churchill Downs Media Center, which posted a sampling of winners since 1930 from all the post positions. Post 17 said “0 wins.” I love it. Reminds me of the baseball announcer that says, “this pitcher has never allowed a ninth inning home run.” And what happens next?

All together now. BOOM!

PICKS FROM THE COMMISH

HIGHLY MOTIVATED
ROCK YOUR WORLD
ESSENTIAL QUALITY
HOT ROD CHARLIE
KING FURY

The 6th Man – O BESOS

I will play a $5 Oaks/Derby Doubles using Travel Column and Pass The Champagne with my Top 3 above.

Here’s wishing you all a fabulous weekend of racing under the Twin Spires, and as usual, may the horse be with you!