SECTION 4: SEGMENT NOTES

The Kentucky Derby Subscription Page is mainly focused on the Kentucky Derby Championship Series consisting of 16 races. Races at 1 1/8 mile start in March, and I can't think of a Kentucky Derby winner in modern times that didn't race nine furlongs before the Derby. In 2016, Destin tried to break that mold, but he needed a race and finished sixth in the Derby before almost winning the Belmont Stakes.

Anyway, we begin our coverage of races this year with the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star Stakes, but please remember that we attach special importance on performances in nine-furlong races. Among other things, we like to look for horses that run 12-second furlongs (see Section 7 below for more information about that subject), and we like to look at whether horses finish in 38 seconds or less in the nine-furlong races.

Click to go to Segment .

Segment 20 NOTES - Dick's Picks for the Kentucky Derby

Segment 19 NOTES - Selections by The Commish for the Kentucky Derby

Segment 18 NOTES - California Clocker Sees Most Upside in One Horse

Segment 17 NOTES - Sunday Workouts at Churchill Downs

Segment 16 NOTES - Saturday Workouts at Churchill Downs

Segment 15 NOTES - Workouts from Three Corners of the Nation

Segment 14 NOTES - Catching Up on Workouts at Churchill Downs

Segment 13 NOTES - Catching Up on Workouts

Segment 12 NOTES - Frederico Tesio Stakes

Segment 11 NOTES - Arkansas Derby, Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

Segment 10 NOTES - Santa Anita Derby, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial

Segment 9 NOTES - Florida Derby, UAE Derby

Segment 8 NOTES - Sunland Derby

Segment 7 NOTES - Louisiana Derby

Segment 6 NOTES - Rebel Stakes, Divisions One and Two; Private Terms Stakes

Segment 5 NOTES - Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham Stakes, Jeff Ruby Steaks

Segment 4 NOTES - Fountain of Youth Stakes, Santa Anita allowance

Segment 3 NOTES - Southwest Stakes, California Cup Derby

Segment 2 NOTES - El Camino Real Derby, Risen Star Stakes

Segment 1 NOTES - Triple Crown Fantasy League

SEGMENT 20 NOTES - Dick's Picks

Dick's Picks for the 145th Kentucky Derby

By Dick Downey
@DowneyProfile

Posted May 3, 2019

When entries were taken for the 145th Kentucky Derby, it presented a quandary that I have not often faced. The morning line favorite, a horse that was doing very well, was not in The Downey Profile Top 4 and was not the top horse in the Profile Buster Profile. As I began writing this piece on Wednesday, it was my hope that a solution to the quandary would come to me. I wrote at the time, "We'll see how things go."

This Derby looks like a good betting opportunity, and all we can do is try to make informed choices. However, one thing about this sport that's kind of crazy is how two people can see exactly the same thing and come away with totally different thoughts about it.

Mike Welsch, an accomplished clocker and evaluator of how horses move, really liked the last workout by Improbable. On Tuesday, I heard Donna Brothers tell a group of people that she really disliked the work because, in her opinion, Improbable was being restrained too much of the work. In my view, Tacitus is an intelligent horse because he has a habit of looking around and taking in his surroundings. On Wednesday morning, I heard a young horsewoman say Tacitus must  not be here to race because he looks around a lot.

A key to success is figuring how how to use information. Remember two years ago when Always Dreaming was such a handful on the track every morning? Some people saw that and dismissed him. Others saw it as ball of lightning ready to strike.

Here at The Downey Profile, I strive to bring you the information, and I try to interpret what I see in a reflective manner. With that in mind, let's take a look at the field in the 2019 Kentucky Derby in post position order.

Remember, The Commish and I never discuss our selections before they are posted.

1. WAR OF WILL: I selected this horse as the first pick for Team Downey-Commish in the annual Triple Crown Fantasy League in which we participate with some of the sport's leading media names. He was the fourth pick overall, and War of Will promptly won the Risen Star Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths. In the Louisiana Derby, his hind feet slipped out from under him after he broke from the gate, and all of a sudde he found himself behind and between horses -- and eating dirt for the first time in his career. He didn't like that at all and finished ninth. After the race, trainer Casse claimed War of Will was significantly off after the race -- something he had also said a week earlier after Our Braintrust ran very poorly -- and then in a few days War of Will was training as if nothing had happened. In fact, the day after the Louisiana Derby, Casse said War of Will looked fine. So it goes.

In the past week, War of Will has looked sharp at Churchill Downs. On Saturday, his fastest-of-78 workout preceded a long gallop-out all the way to the top of the stretch. With that and the way he's looked on the track since then, War of Will was shaping up as a dangerous horse, but  then he drew post 1. After a couple of scratches left 19 horses in the race, War of Will gets to break from post position 2. In my opinion, this is better than post 1 becuase the angle from the gate to the stretch is better, but he still will have no choice but to try to establish the lead and hold his position going into the first turn. There is early speed close to him in the gate and beyond. There is a chance he will be trapped on the rail eating dirt. If that happens, I think War of Will's chance of running well will drop sharply. If he does make the lead, that is not exactly the running style that won the LeComte Stakes and the Risen Star, but it would help him. In those two races, he sat just outside and back of the early speed and took command after about a half-mile -- which In the Derby is at the beginning of the backstretch. Maybe War of Will can slip outside of any given pacesetter in the early going and stalk from there, but on paper it looks like a tricky task.

A sloppy track should move up War of Will -- if he doesn't get caught behind horses. He has a five-length maiden win at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track.


2. TAX: Among those in close gate proximity to War of Will with potential to show early speed is Tax, who has never been worse than third at any point during any race.  He'll break from post 3. It can be argued that since he has run well after breaking from post 1 three different times, perhaps he can handle this gate assignment. As with War of Will, it's going to be tough. After the field breaks, many of the horses will be looking for good position on the first turn, and that means the field will begin to converge like an accordion being squeezed, which can result in horses on the inside being bumped, bothered and/or squeezed back. Watching the Wood Memorial on replay, we can see that after breaking from post 1, Tax avoided exacty that kind of problem after Joevia broke from post 11 and basically took a left, cutting off many horses to his inside. It took a few strides for this to happen, and because Tax was barely in front of the chain reaction of bumping, he got a clean trip thanks in part to fact that he does possess decent early speed. Still, things might not be that simple for him with a larger field, and from post 3 he might have to take significant dirt.

Despite his early advantage in the Wood Memorial, Tax was unable to hold off Tacitus, who had trouble early in the race. After the finish line, Tax was stubborn in the gallop-out and got back ahead of Tacitus by a small margin, but it bothers me that Tax had a much cleaner trip than Tacitus and didn't win.

A concern is the spacing of his races. Tax won on Oct. 21 after a three-week break, had a six-week break and finished third in the Remsen, had a two-month break and won the Withers, had a two-month break and finished second in the Wood, and now he comes into the Kentucky Derby four weeks later following a workout I don't think was all that. He's a good, consistent horse, but he hasn't been tested with this kind of spacing between races since October. As consistent as he is, I think it would not t be a total shocker if he filled out the bottom of tickets, but I am not visualizing a win.

Tax has no off-track racing experience. He has one work on a track rated good that is slower than almost all his other works.


3. BY MY STANDARDS: I would say that By My Standards is the so-called Wise Guy horse of this Derby, and I can't remember one of those types that has won. He's put in a series of good workouts at the track, and he galloped out forever after his most recent one. As noted in previous NOTES, he is not the prettiest mover. A horse doesn't have to be the prettiest mover to win big races, but I think it help to move smoothly in longer races. An issue is that By My Standards comes into the race as the winner of the Lousiana Derby, and the Louisiana Derby simply isn't a fertile breeding ground for the Kentucky Derby. The last Kentucky Derby winner to come out of that race was Grindstone 23 years ago.

By My Standards' early pace figures aren't very fast, and I can't help but think he will find himself in tight quarters as the field descends on the first turn. With a good trip, maybe on the bottom of tickets, but I am not playing him to win.

He finished second in his debut, a maiden special weight on a sloppy track, and third in another maiden special weight on a good track in his third outing.


4. GRAY MAGICIAN: He looked like a winner in the stretch of the UAE Derby only to be narrowly beaten by Plus Que Parfait. The time for that 1 3/16-mile race was 1:58.41. Gray Magician can get 1 1/4 mile, but can he run it fast enough to impact the Kentucky Derby? I have to take a stand against him. After the UAE Derby, connections said that race was his Kentucky Derby, but it wasn't long before they changed their minds. The UAE Derby is a valuable race in its own right, but the talent in this year's edition was suspect, and I am not drawn to the ostensible reasons this horse is being sent on in the Run for the Roses.

Gray Magician has run one race on a muddy track, finishing fifth, beaten eight lengths by Extra Hope.


5. IMPROBABLE: The worst this horse has ever finished is second, beaten a length by the once-presumptive Kentucky Derby favorite on a sloppy track. That is not a bad resume to bring into the Kentucky Derby, and Improbable is the top-rated horse in the Profile Buster Profile.

After the preps were finished, some of the nation's top jockeys had to make tough choices. Among them was Jose Ortiz. After riding Tacitus in the Wood Memorial and then Improbable in the Arkansas Derby, he chose to ride Tacitus in the Kentucky Derby. Despite urging from Ortiz before they exited the far turn of the Arkansas Derby, Improbable couldn't collar Omaha Beach, who was under less pressure from Mike Smith. Past the finish line, Omaha Beach still wouldn't let Improbable pass him. However, Jose's brother Irad will take over, so it's not like Jose was speading the word that this horse is a loser.

Improbable has some maturing to do, but that also means he has upside potential. I think this horse should be played. Whether he can win might depend on how much he's matured since the Arkansas Derby.

There is the  pedigree issue to consider. Improbable is by City Zip, not good on its face for a race going a classic distance. However, he's out of an A.P. Indy mare, and we do know he has the stamina to get nine furlongs effectively. He could get 10 furlongs over a track he really likes, and he really likes the track at Churchill Downs -- and as noted, he ran well over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park.


6. VEKOMA: Vekoma won at a mile at age two in his second start. I wrote before the Fountain of Youth in February that he could probably get 1 1/16 mile and two turns, and he did okay in that race. With a cleaner trip, a perfect trip in fact, in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, he won at 1 1/8 mile by 3 1/2 lengths, so we know he can do that. Now, with that paddling left foreleg of his, can he win at 1 1/4 mile? Your guess is as good as mine, but I can assure you Javier Castellano will do all in his power to get him right out of the gate and into the first turn unblemishied by dirt. From there, it's a question of stamina. He's in The Downey Profile Top 4. I am not looking for a win, but I will use him in vertical exotics.

Vekoma has no off-track racing experience, and I can't see any workouts on an off track. His early speed might help him deal with an off-track effectively by avoiding kickback.


7. MAXIMUM SECURITY: Like Vekoma, he won his last prep, the Florida Derby, by 3 1/2 lengths I thought it was an impresssive effort. He ran 12-second furlongs at each call of the race and finished the final 3/8 mile in roughly 36 seconds. That's about as good as it gets.

I was told the reason a certain trainer didn't claim Maximum Security for $16,000 when he had the chance was that the trainer was informed by his source that the horse has a bad knee. I remember War Emblem, who won the Illinois Derby in a fashion similar to Maximum Security's Florida Derby win. After the Illinois Derby, he was privately purchased and sent into the 2002 Kentucky Derby with a new trainer, Bob Baffert. War Emblem won at odds of 20-1 after clicking off front-running fractions of 23.25 , 47.04,  1:11.75 and 1:36.70 and a final time of 2:01.13.

At some point after the Derby, Baffert said, and I'll never forget this, that on x-ray War Emblem's knees looked like a big of potato chips. So I tell you what, I'm going to throw out the issue with Maximum Security's knee and instead trust the result of the Florida Derby. As I type this, I find myself drawn more and more to Maximum Security, and he is, after all, a Downey Profile Top 4 horse.

His workouts are slow. I wrote about them in previous NOTES, noting gigantic gallop-outs. It turns out he has been working a mile. The slow numbers shown on his workouts don't bother me.

Admittedly facing cheap speed, in his second start Maximum Security came from off the pace and won on a muddy track, getting six furlongs in 1:09.93. On Friday morning, i happened to see him galloping over a sloppy-sealed track, and he was just skipping over the surface.


8. TACITUS: Tacitus is number 1 in the rankings and will try to become the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the Wood Memorial since Funny Cide 2003 and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. As already noted, Jose Ortiz chose Tacitus over Improbable for the Derby. This may or may mean as much as we think. Sometimes things behind the scenes go into jockey decisions that might or might not be important to our handicapping. But one would think, in a race as significant as the Kentucky Derby, that this decision has some import.

When I watched a replay of the Wood Memorial, I realized Tacitus has mental toughness. He was bumped off stride soon after the gate opened, and in the first turn a horse clipped his heels. A lot of horses would have thrown in the towel at that point, but not Tacitus. Instead, he shrugged it off and won the race. That kind of mental toughness should help Tacitus deal with the intensity of the Derby paddock and the size of the Derby crowd. He has a smooth gait and gets over the ground well. He's a horse that likes to go and get 'em when asked, too. He won't be among the early leaders, so he'll need a good trip, but when Ortiz asks him, there's every reason to think he'll respond.

Not known as an especially good work horse, in my opinion his last workout at Churchill Downs was very good, as reflected in my comments in NOTES. Not only did he post solid fractions, he galloped out almost to the track kitchen, and that's a good thing.

A distance of ground has always been his thing. He debuted going 1 1/6 mile, finishing fourth after running too close to fast early fractions.

Tacitus has one race over a track rated good. That came in his second start, and he won the one-mile affair in 1:38 and change.


9. PLUS QUE PARFAIT: This year, he was an under-achiever in the U. S. after almost winning the Kentucky Jockey Club on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last year. After one sub-par effort and one dismal effort this year, he was shipped to Dubai, wherre connections are, and he pulled off the win against competition softer than he will see on Saturday. His time of 1:58.41 at 1 3/16 mile doesn't inspire confidence. On the plus side, he was give a little time in Dubai to recover from the race before being shippped back home. His workout on Saturday wasn't bad, and he galloped a long way after the work. I can't see him winning but he could pick up some pieces on track he likes, particularly if it's wet.


10. CUTTING HUMOR: Second time out, Cutting Humor ran a fading second to Bourbon War, who went on to close like a freight train in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Sent to the Southwest Stakes, Cutting Humor was banged around badly in the the first turn, and his trip didn't get much better from there. He probably would've performed much better if that hadn't happened. He then set a track record winning the Sunland Derby under John Velazquez.

What did Velazquez do? He abandoned Cutting Humor for Code of Honor. This might not reflect all that badly on Cutting Humor, it might just reflect positively on Code of Honor. All that aside for the moment, I have to say that I was concerned that Cutting Humor might need appreciable time off after running so fast on a Sunland surface that routinely produces fast times on its Derby day. But instead, Cutting Humor rebounded well out of the race and has been training forwardly. I don't see him winning the Kentucky Derby, but he could run respectably.

Mike Smith was named on Friday to replace Corey Lanerie in the saddle, which has upset some people. I would not play Cutting Humor any differently because of the jockey change. Lanerie is a perennial leading rider at Churchill Downs.

Cutting Humor's sole start on a sloppy track was his debut, and he finished a credible second, albeit beaten 5 3/4 lengths, going 6 1/2 furlongs at Belmont Park. Velazquez was on board that day.


11. HAIKAL: Haikal was scratched with a foot abscess.


12. OMAHA BEACH: The presumptive favorite has been scratched and will miss all the Triple Crown races after trainer Mandella said he was diagnosed with an entrapped epiglottis.


13. CODE OF HONOR:  I looked back at the Florida Derby, specifically the head-on, after James Scully told me Code of Honor was staggering around in the stretch. While watching, I was reminded how hard John Velazquez was pushing on Code of Honor on the far turn while Maximum Security loped along on the lead setting 12-second furlongs. Sure enough, as Scully said, Code of Honor, who had saved ground into the stretch, suddenly veered out and then back in. The gallop-out shows Maximum Security all alone before being joined by second finisher Bodexpress.

As lackluster as he was visually finishing third in the Florida Derby, Code of Honor ran exactly the same Brisnet figure (95) he received when handily winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in closing fashion. His late pace figure actually improved from 91 to 115, but he was beaten 6 3/4 lengths by Maximum Security and 3 1/4 lengths by Bodexpress, a maiden.

All that said, I find it hard seeing Code of Honor winning the Kentucky Derby. But trainer McGaughey is one of the best, and we should not dismiss him. After the Florida Derby, Shug got Code of Honor out of Florida and into the cooler climate of Kentucky, and I can tell you the horse is thriving right now at Churchill Downs. He's been bouncing around on the track. While it's hard for me to endorse Code of Honor to win, I wouldn't be surprised if he filled out the bottom of tickets.

Lest we forget, John Velazquez chose Code of Honor in the Derby over Cutting Humor and Spinoff.

For those of you who like omens, Code of Honor will be number 13, and Shug won the 2013 Derby with Orb.

Code of Honor has not raced on an off track.

Oddly enough, while leading a tour of the backside at 6:00 this morning, the only two Derby horses I saw on the track were Maximum Security and Code of Honor, and I had just mentioned both horses to my group. So one of my tickets will be an exacta with those two just for fun.


14. WIN WIN WIN: This is a horse that, so far, has been best at one turn, but he has been credible at two turns. Vekoma didn't finish the Blue Grass Stakes very fast, so the fact that Win Win Win made up some ground on him  in the stretch after being blocked for a bit in the far turn may not bode as well for Win Win Win as it looked visually. He is a very competitve horse that, in my opinion,  is playable on the bottom, but I can't endorse him for the win.

Win Win Win is a very competitive horse, a trait we saw on display when he hooked up with Tacitus and Country House in a workout last Sunday. I can't help but wonder if that work took a little something out of him.

His sole race on an off track resulted in a second-place finish to Alwaysminining in the seven-furlong Heft Stakes on a track rated good.


15. MASTER FENCER: It's difficult for me to envision Master Fencer making a big impression on the Derby. Unlike the other starters, he's already run 1 1/4 mile -- twice -- on turf. Those were his first two starts, and he ran in around 2:05 and around 2:03.60, not really all that bad. His times on subsequent dirt races aren't very fast. He was in quarantine for a week in Japan before leaving, was in quarantine after arriving in Chicago for at least 42 hours, shipped to Keeneland and then finally to Churchill Downs.


16. GAME WINNER: He could very well win the Kentucky Derby at the same track over which he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but I haven't been able to warm up to Game Winner this year. It just feels like Baffert isn't all about this horse, but that could be because Baffert has two other horses in the race. True, Game Winner gained on Omaha Beach in the stretch of the Rebel and was denied by only a nose, but Omaha Beach refused to let him by in the gallop-out. In the Santa Anita Derby, Game Winner couldn't hold off Roadster. Game Winner's last workout wasn't one to write home about, in my opinion, and I don't sense a mile and a quarter being his game. He could run well and hit the board, and it could be hard to leave him off the bottom of tickets, but I can't tab him as the winner. I don't blame anyone who likes him to win, it's just that I am not getting that vibe on him.

All of Game Winner's races have come on a track rated fast.


17. ROADSTER: Mike Smith got off Roadster to ride Omaha Beach, and we know how that turned out for Money Mike. But the point is that he took off Roadster. Roadster got a pretty good setup in the Santa Anita Derby, the kind of trip that will be much more difficult to pull off in the Kentucky Derby because the field will be so much larger. He is not an imposing individual in person and has run in the same Brisnet speed figure range his whole career. He could run well and hit the board, and it could be hard to leave him off the bottom of tickets, but I can't tab him as the winner.

He has not raced on an off track.


18. LONG RANGE TODDY: If the track were to come up fast, perhaps Long Range Toddy could finish fourth or so with a late run, but sloppy track or not, his Arkansas Derby was just terrible. He is of slight build and might not handle the traffic in the Derby. Trainer Asmussen ponied him onto the track for his last workout, and I have never seen a more dejected looking man. Maybe something else was bothering him, I don't know, but he looked unhappy. Long Range Toddy then proceeded to work very well, but his gallop-out was not too big at all. The post position is not very good, either.

As stated, his lone sloppy-track effort was very poor.


19. SPINOFF: It's been a long time since he finished second in the Louisiana Derby, and now he has to break almost from this wide post. Velazquez chose Code of Honor over Spinoff, and Velazquez rides for trainer Pletcher a lot. Hard to get behind him. If he wins, then good for all the ticket holders, because he'll pay a lot.

He did run well on a good track sprinting in his debut.


20. COUNTRY HOUSE: This horse has difficulty breaking from the gate, so he won't be involved in a first-turn scrum. His last workout was maybe the best one he's ever had, and I think it's possible he will be running late and passing tired horses, perhaps enough horses to fill out the bottom of tickets.

He finished third in the Arkansas Derby on a sloppy track but never threatened Omaha Beach or Improbable.


21. BODEXPRESS: He has his fans, but if a maiden wins the Kentucky from the far outside post, then we can conclude this was an odd Kentucky Derby.

In his sole race on a sloppy track, Bodexpres finished fourth, beaten 18 lengths.


THE WEATHER: As I post this, the forecast indicates the track will be sloppy.


THE SHOW BET: Remember, all but three of the betting interests will fail to hit the board, and all that losing money is paid to the top three finishers in the show pool. In a field this large, the show payoffs are often very good.


DICK'S PICKS

1. MAXIMUM SECURITY
2. TACITUS
3. IMPROBABLE
4. VEKOMA
5. CODE OF HONOR

Looking back at my writing, here are horses that might fit on the bottom of a superfecta: WAR OF WILL, TAX, BY MY STANDARDS, PLUS QUE PARFAIT, CUTTING HUMOR, WIN WIN WIN, GAME WINNER, ROADSTER, COUNTRY HOUSE

POSSIBLE TRIFECTA BET

7, 8
with
5, 6, 7, 8
with
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20

This amounts to 72 combinations, so a 50 cent trifecta bet would cost $36 and a $1 trifecta bet would cost $72.

Good luck to everyone, and I thank you for your support of The Downey Profile.

SEGMENT 19 NOTES - Kentucky Derby Selections by The Commish

Kentucky Derby 145: Who’s the Fastest Horse on Saturday?

By Greg “The Commish” Johnson

Posted May 3, 2019

A contentious cast of characters fills the starting gates at Churchill Downs on this fine Saturday, leaving us to answer one obvious question. Who’s the fastest horse? Who gets the lead? Who gets taken out around that dreaded first turn? Who will get the distance? Ok, well that’s more than one question, but when it comes right down to it, it’s the fastest horse that will wear the roses.

Oh, almost forgot the second question. Who will relish the off going? My first prediction is the unforgiving weather we have seen a lot of in this race of late, so that is a huge consideration in this analysis.

As I have done many times over the years, I’ll break it down from four categories. Pretenders. Contenders. The Sixth Man, and, The Top 5. Sorry in advance if your pony ends up in the wrong category. But as I have always said, “stick to your guns” is always advised, as I have stuck to mine since about mid-March this Derby season.

So here we go….

The Pretenders

TAX (2) is a very consistent sort, having never been off the board in his five career starts. He made a big move in the Wood Memorial, but couldn’t sustain that run late. He has done that in three straight mile and an eighth race which is a bit concerning with the added real estate the Derby brings. Breaking from the 3 gate now may prove tricky with speed all around him, so he made need to be used early more than he would like.

GRAY MAGICIAN (4) really had no excuse after running right on by the eventual winner in the UAE Derby, but settling for second. Wishy washy connections were uncertain for quite some time as to whether he would run in the Derby, and I’m not one to endorse wishy washy. Speed figures also do not come close to many in this race.

PLUS QUE PARFAIT (9) ran a bang up race in the UAE Derby to stamp his ticket into this event. That was the first good run in a while after getting smoked by War of Will in two straight. Jockey Jose Ortiz had several other choices and rightfully so doesn’t end up on this guy, and neither do I.

CUTTING HUMOR (10) is another who loses his rider via the jockey-go-round, as John Velazquez sticks with a horse that is not trained by Todd Pletcher. He has been working great down in Florida, following a track record setting effort in the Sunland Derby. Big jump in his Beyer speed figure in that fray might have bounce written all over it, and only one ho-hum effort on the off-going has me looking elsewhere.

MASTER FENCER (15) is a great addition to this historic race, coming from a land with little experience in this event. Interesting to note his best race was on a good track, taking his maiden by over three lengths, in a time considerably faster than the races that got him here today. This will be his third career start at the classic distance, but all things considered, I will have to take a let’s see one first stance before using him with my money.

BODEXPRESS (21) slipped into the starting gate after the very unfortunate defection of Omaha Beach. He qualified by grabbing the place dough in the Florida Derby in his first two turn and graded stakes race. His only race on the off going is forgettable, and many others would be preferred to use on Saturday.

SPINOFF (19) has improved with each and every race and looked like he was home free in the Louisiana Derby until he got tired late and got nailed at the wire. He looked the part of a mighty tired pony in the final parts of the race, and I’m thinking Velazquez agrees as he ends up on Code of Honor. Never crazy about a horse that doesn’t train for this big race at CD, and the 18 gate may having him sitting back in an unfamiliar place for this longer dance -- either that, or he gets used too much early.

COUNTRY HOUSE (20) has been banging around the scoring races long enough to get enough points to join the dance. Speed figures are a bit low, and he was no match for the top two in the Arkansas Derby despite grabbing the show dough. He’s another who needs a ton of help weaving through the traffic, and no speed as he exits that outside gate means he’ll need a dream trip as well as needing to run a whole lot faster.

LONG RANGE TODDY (18) had an impressive run of good outings, starting with his win last year in the Springboard Mile. He was on top of the world after his come-from-behind win in the Rebel, but then he ran into a sloppy track and threw in a dud in the Arkansas Derby. Has been training well for this at CD, but he will need to run a lot faster late to catch up to some of these.

The Contenders

WAR OF WILL (1) was one charge I just couldn’t list above despite drawing the dreaded inside post position. But it is noted that as a result of Haikal being scratched, he will slide over and break from post position 2 now. Not much better, but most definitely better. He recently produced one the most impressive works over the Churchill Down strip, a 47.60 best of 78 four-furlong move on April 27. Add to this the fact that he has the only monster win at Churchill Downs in the slop, and he was many handicappers Number One horse on the Derby trail after that impressive Risen Star romp. If he can get away from the inside without getting slammed around and a lot of slop kicked in his face, don’t be surprised if he makes a good go of it.

CODE OF HONOR (13) has been sending mixed signals all year. It started with a flop in his three-year-old debut, then an impressive return to form by taking the Fountain of Youth. He then ran kind of even behind that speedball in the Florida Derby, creating distance questions for me, but ultimately gets the confidence building services of John Velazquez. He has an impressive work since that race at CD, so there’s certainly lots to like about him

WIN WIN WIN (14) will need to be more forwardly placed in this event, and there is no reason to think that can’t happen based on some fast times he has produced at shorter distances. He has the look of a dangerous closer when the going gets going, if the speed begins to melt down up front. Not sure how quickly Irad Ortiz, Jr. took the generous gift his brother assisted with in getting the mount on Improbable, but any way you squeeze it, he isn’t on this guy. Needs everything to go perfect and the Derby Gods help for those holes to open near the top of the stretch to make a dent.

BY MY STANDARDS (3) may just get the blue ribbon for the horse that is training the best at Churchill Downs for his run to immortality. While good horses can come from anywhere, this guy is certainly on the improve after taking the Louisiana Derby. A few folks he beat didn’t come back and run so great against a few of these, and some didn’t make this dance. I have great respect for a certain Churchill Downs clocker and this guy has said many a favorable thing about the eventual Derby winner, and that speaks volumes. Live longshot says the backstretch buzzers, how about you?

The Sixth Man

Then there’s this guy. Otherwise referred to as the one that got away. Or I can’t believe I didn’t use him. By definition, the guy who comes off the bench and rallies to victory, or into those exotics that has you kicking yourself probably because you just might have the others, but not him.
Enter ROADSTER. Ah Commish’…not the Santa Anita Derby winner!
Help me now.

My right on top in that great race, Roadster, lost Mike Smith. You know, the guy that rode Justify for Bob Baffert. And maybe Omaha Beach was the only horse that could beat him. So where does that leave him now?
Ouch. My stomach is gurgling.

The lightly raced son of Quality Road was all out to win, with a monster catching him. He looked a little pooped after that, and I sure wish he would have spent more time training at CD. At the very top of the “You can’t-bet-them-all” list, and if he’s your guy, stick to your guns.

The Top 5

Here’s my top five countdown to my right on top.

5. MAXIMUM SECURITY comes into this race with the slowest workouts of any contender in the history of this great race. Four straight workouts are the slowest of the bunch for that distance on that day. So slow, they are not just pedestrian, they are slow motion. I’ve seen fair ponies pulling the kiddies faster.

Ok, well thanks for letting me get that off my chest, but seriously folks, this is one fast pony (did I just say that?). The only horse with two Beyer Speed Figures over 100. He has a big win on the off going, and I believe horses with quality speed have ran favorable in the past on the front end, at least enough to hit the exotics or better. He’s the speed of the speed, but I believe the next four, who he has not faced, will be breathing down his neck when the going gets going, and will be plenty ready to pounce.

4. VEKOMA (6) gets a good post position, and with his tactical speed, he can tuck in behind the speediest ones around him and get a good spot down the backstretch. After a brilliant showing of two fast wins as a two-year-old, he found his best stride in the Blue Grass Stakes, not only winning by multiple lengths, but he looked much the best with much to spare. He looks as good as anyone with the three- race approach to immortality, and with some good tune up works since raced, this guy could be right there ready to rumble when the going gets going. Note also that he has one of the highest Tomlinson off track rating I have ever seen (469).

Side note: My wife has been dominating our Kentucky Derby Fantasy Challenge all year. Vekoma is the one and only horse where someone could catch her at the finish with what would be an epic Silky Sullivan move. Wish her luck, or think of her fondly as your walking to the windows to cash this right on topper.

3. GAME WINNER may be this year’s “stick to your guns” charge, and at a better price then we would have thought at the end of his two-year-old champion season. He ran great in both the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby, and here we are, race three, and right on schedule. His name fits him but good, and I can’t say enough about the champ but his best could very well be the best.

2. IMPROBABLE had been my number one clear back to the Los Alamitos Futurity romp, and the fastest mile and a sixteen of any three-year-old to date. Just missed in the Rebel after a ridiculously wide trip, then his second place finish in the Arkansas Derby, in the slop, while being almost six lengths clear of the rest of the field. He’s working fabulously at CD and sports one of the best lines of the year from his five-time Kentucky Derby winning training Bob Baffert. “Don’t toss him”. Done.

That being said shortly after one of the best jockeys around, Jose Ortiz, decided to get off Improbable for another, and what a nice brother, as he might have had a little to do with Irad picking up the mount.

But that’s because Jose doesn’t think you can beat me, mi hermano.

1. TACITUS caught my attention right after his stablemate, Hidden Scroll, won that incredibly fast mile maiden race by 14 widening lengths at Gulfstream Park, putting him instantly near the top of everyone’s list. I’m listening to an interview with his trainer, Bill Mott, and he basically says that everyone will get very excited about this effort, BUT WE HAVE ANOTHER IN OUR STABLE NAMED TACITUS THAT WE ARE VERY HIGH ON.
Wait, what?

Was he just popping off about ANOTHER horse after that monster HIDDEN SCROLL WIN? This is a very well respected, modest hall of famer trainer we’re talking about. I was blown away. When is he running next?

That would be the track record-setting win in the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start of the year. Yea, this guy is fast.

The regally bred son of Tapit, by six-time Grade I winner Close Hatches, was then on to the Wood Memorial, and if you want to see a tough as nails horse, watch him get slammed around into the first turn, stalk, and pull away late for all the marbles. He is truly Looking Good.

And what an epic race call it will make.

“The Ortiz Brothers are heads apart and set down for the drive to Derby glory!”

Can’t wait.

Picks from the Commish:

• TACITUS
• IMPROBABLE
• GAME WINNER
• VEKOMA
• MAXIMUM SECURITY

Will use those top three with Jaywalk in his return to form in the Oaks/Derby double. What a great weekend we have in store. Here’s wishing you all a prosperous Oak/Derby weekend, and may the horse be with you!
 

SEGMENT 18 NOTES

California Clocker Sees Most Upside in One Horse

By Dick Downey
Posted April 28, 2019

Andy Harrington has been clocking horses at Santa Anita since the meet began on Dec. 26. At age 55, he's been clocking for almost 30 years. The track's public relations department put out some notes about his observations.

“Game Winner’s last couple drills have been terrific since he’s come out of the Santa Anita Derby,” said Harrington.

“Improbable has always been my personal favorite, particularly because he’s a flashy work horse, a pretty chestnut. He’s always done everything rather easily. I think there’s still a mental upside. Baffert tried blinkers in the Arkansas Derby, but he’ll take them off Saturday. I think Bob’s probably got him where he wants him. He’s got more upside than some of the others.

“Omaha Beach has been the flashiest workhorse you’ve ever seen, and that’s since last summer at Del Mar. He caught all our stopwatches every time. The switch to dirt obviously woke him up, or maybe he’s matured, too.

“Roadster surprised me a bit; he just keeps coming at you. I liked his last gate drill (1:13.60 on April 20). He seems like he’s held his weight well since the Santa Anita Derby when he ran down Game Winner. I could see Roadster winning, but he needs the right trip, although he’s exceeded my expectations along the way, and maybe that will continue.

“If I had to pick one horse now before the draw for post positions Tuesday, it would be Improbable. He’s always been my favorite."

Conceding his bias, Harriington concluded, "But I hope a horse from California wins. We sure could use it.”
 

SEGMENT 17 NOTES

Sunday Workouts at Churchill Downs

By Dick Downey
Posted April 27, 2019

The track was probably playing little fast today, and horses were getting over it well.

-- Code of Honor was the first of six Kentucky Derby prospects to get down to business this morning, putting in four furlongs solo under exercise rider Brian Duggan. Everything about the main body of the work looked fine, and he was flying through the turn as his rider pushed him along a bit. Code of Honor, who hasn't shown early speed in his races, was timed in a blazing 46.80 with initial splits of 11.80, 23.20 and 35.20. He galloped out six furlongs in 59.40 and six in 1:13.20. The final furlong of the gallop-out thus went in an unexciting 13.80, but who knows if we should make much of it. The gallop-out up the backstretch wasn't as energetic as we've seen from some others. This horse is bred to go a distance of ground. Before the Kentucky Derby, I am going to view the head-on of his Florida Derby to see if he ran a straight line in the stretch. I am told he didn't. Video

-- Improbable was up after Code of Honor. He is a good work horse on his own, which is usually the case, but today he had company from whom he drew off in the stretch.. He was timed for five furlongs in 1:00.60, and workmate Emboldened, a 4-year-old filly, was timed in 1:01.20. Improbable's initial splits were 11.80, 23.60 and 36.40. He galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.00 and seven in 1:25.60, a great time for a seven furlong work if that had been the intention. Doing the math, we can see that after the five-furlong work was finished, Improbable galloped out a furlong in 12.40 and then another furlong in 12.60. Very nice. Improbable was again without the blinkers used in the Arkansas Derby, and he won't have them in the Derby.

Jockey Geroux, who will ride Roadster in the Derby, said he was impressed, that Improbable was push button, that he could have gone faster or slower if desired. All this said, Geroux found himself on a horse that was trying to get out a little in the first turn -- Baffert termed him "anxious" during this part of the move. It's not the first time Improbable has cocked his head to the right during a workout. On the plus side, Improbable obeyed Geroux's cues, straigjhted up in the turn and didn't run off as Geroux kept a snug hold on him entering the stretch. Approaching the finish line, Geroux dropped his hands, and Improbable took off. He looked impressive through the gallop-out, just as his times indicate.

DRF's Mike Welsch, who has a good eye and is experienced at clocking horses, gave Improbable the "work of the day" nod both on the fourth floor at the clockers' station and in a Tweet later this morning. We should not forget that Improbable demonstrated a liking for the surface at Churchill Downs last fall. Trainer Baffert said something about Improbable much like trainer Pletcher said about Super Saver in 2010, which is that, coming into the Derby, his horse likes this track. Video

-- Tacitius was teamed up with stable mate Country House for a five-furlong breeze in company when, unxpectedly, they were joined near the half-mile pole by Win Win Win and his workmate Souper Courage, a maiden. Country House was on the inside, Tacitus in the middle and Win Win Win outside his mate four or five wide in the turn. Tacitus and Country House went five furlongs timed in 1:00.00. Perhaps lost in all the excitement caused by the mini-Derby stretch run that we saw, which was won by Win Win Win, initial fractions for Tacitus and Country House were solid: 12.20, 24.20, 35.80 and 48.00 -- remember, Tacitus worked four furlongs in 50.00 last time out. Further, both Tacitus and Country House galloped out six furlongs in 1:12.80, seven in 1:26.00 and a mile in 1:39.80, and beyond that they finally stopped at the track kitchen. All that all adds up to a notable morning on the track for a pair of Kentucky Derby contenders.

It's worth remembering that Tacitus and Country House are not particularly good work horses and that Improbable is a good work horse -- yet on the clock Tacitus completed seven furlongs just two lengths slower than Improbable. Food for thought.

I am also constrained to say that Twitter buzz in some circles erroneously concluded that Win Win Win won the gallop-out. That did not exactly happen, but Win Win Win was very competitive until he was pulled up. More about that below. Video

--The clockers at Churchill Downs, led by John Nichols, are professionals whom I have seen at work during Derby week for a long time. I was impressed by their ability to get it right when Win Win Win and his mate became part of another set's work. Win Win Win was timed in 47.60 for four furlongs, with Souper Courage clocked in 48.20. Win Win Win's early fractions were 24.20 and 36.00; under Julian Pimentel he edged by Tacitus and Country House as they approached the wire; and he was out five furlongs in 1:00.20 while still a bit ahead of those two. Impressive was the fact that past the wire, Julian Pimentel stood up on Win Win Win, yet the competitive fire in him was stoked, and he came after Tacitus and Country House. In the backstretch, Win Win Win was pulled up before Country House and Tacitus stopped galloping. I think it's also worth mentioning a couple more things. While Win Win Win did go by Country House and Tacitus nearing the wire, the main body of his work was a furlong shorter. To Win Win Win's credit, though, he was four or five wide in the turn, costing him distance. Same video

-- By My Standards was the last to work for the Derby today. He went four furlongs in 48.40, breezing solo, with initial fractions of 12.40, 24.00 and 36.00. By My Standards galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.60, six in 1:12.80 and seven in 1:26.60 -- and he kept on beyond that, all the way to the track kitchen. He was given many kudos for this move, and it was impressive. Perhaps lost in some of the discussion is the fact that Tacitus and Country House, not the greatest of work horses, were three lengths faster at seven furlongs than was By My Standards -- but the main body of work of Tacitus and Country House was a furlong longer than that of By My Standards. Give credit where it is due, though. I would love to own a horse like By My Standards, and he is certainly full of energy. Not the prettiest mover you ever saw, but he's ready and willing. Video

--On April 27 at San Luis Rey, Gray Magician put in his final pre-Derby workout; however, I cannot find video of the work. Drayden Van Dyke was aboard. He was timed for five furlongs in 1:00.40. According to trainer Miller, Gray Magician finished the work in 23.20. According to the owers' website, he galloped out six in 1:12.00; Miller said it was 1:12.40. Today, Gray Magician was declared good to go for the Derby, and Van Dyke is official to ride him.  

SEGMENT 16 NOTES

Saturday Workouts at Churchill Downs

By Dick Downey
Posted April 27, 2019

It's getting real at Churchill Downs, and Saturday was a beautiful morning for it.

--Under Julien Leparoux, Omaha Beac h went five furlongs in 59.00, breezing, in company with Kowboy Karma, who was timed in 1:00.80. The work was well-received and probably solidified the status of Omaha Beach as the unofficial early favorite. He rattled off initial fractions of 12.00, 23.60 and 35.40; and he galloped out six furlongs in 1:12.80, which took him to the midpoint of the first turn. Omaha Beach continued to gallop well beyond that point, all on his own, and was pulled up short of the easternmost gap on the backstretch, sometimes called the Romans gap, which is the last one before you hit the far turn by the track kitchen. Omaha Beach was four lengths behind his workmate at the start of the move and five in front at the finish line -- but it's interesting to note that the workmate, Kowboy Karma, caught up to Omaha Beach while under restraint near the end of the gallop-out. Kowboy Karma is a 4-year-old trained by Larry Jones, and you might want to keep an eye on him. While I have seen flashier pre-Derby works, such as the one put in by Always Dreaming in 2017, and while this work was just a little below that mark, it was still impressive. Lest we forget, it was the first work at Churchill Downs for Omaha Beach, and he liked the track. Video

-- Plus Que Parfait wasn't as sharp as Omaha Beach. He breezed five furlongs in 1:02.00 in company with Al Taweel, a 6-year-old gelding claiming race horse with consistenly slow workout times. Al Taweel was timed in 1:02.20. The gallop-out by Plus Que Parfait was extended and much better than that of his workmate, but this is not saying much. On the plus side, his rider wasn't asking for anything, and he galloped out all the way up the backstretch past the Romans gap mentioned above. Fractional times for Plus Que Parfait were were 12.00, 23.60, 36.20 and 49.40, and he was out six furlongs in 1:15.60, so he got a furlong beyond the main body of the work in 13.60. Video

--Under Tyler Gaffalione, War of Will went a bullet-of-78 four furlongs in 47.60, breezing in company with Starinthemaking, a 5-year old gelding that's been running in the claiming ranks for two years. Starinthemaking was timed in 48.60. War of Will is getting some good review for this work. Splits for War of Will were 12.00, 24.00 and 36.20, and he galloped out five furlongs in 1:00, which is very good, and six in 1:13.60. As you can see, his time for sixth furlong, which went from midway on the far turn to early in the backstretch, was 13.60. It looks faster than that when I watch the video. He galloped out with his ears pricked, a good sign, and he also galloped all the way to the Romans gap. Video

-- Signalman breezed five furlongs in 1:00, out six in 1:13.40, with initial fractions of 35.20 and 47.60. He is a good work horse. Brian Hernandez, Jr. was aboard. Signalman continues to need two defections to make the Derby field. He was lost in the shuffle this morning and his video is abbreviated. Video

-- Bodexpress, second in the Florida Derby, reportedly worked at Gulfstream Park this morngin, but as of this post no works have been reported today from Gulfstream. At San Luis Rey in California, Gray Magician was expected to put in his final work for the Derby this morning, but a review of today's worktab doesn't show Gray Magician as of this post. We'll catch up with these works later.

SEGMENT 15 NOTES

Catching Up on Workouts from Three Corners of the Nation

By Dick Downey
Posted April 26, 2019

Workouts from Keeneland, New York, South Florida and Southern California

--On April 21, Code of Honor breezed at Keeneland. Going solo, he seemed to handle the off track well while in hand. There were three very light taps from the stick into the turn. His gallop-out was good but not particularly eye-catching. Video

--On April 25, Tax breezed on the training track at Belmont Park, breaking off about four lengths behind his unidentified workmate. Tax was being pushed along a bit at the get-go, as well as in the turn when he got closer to his workmate. Tax was about three lengths in front at the end of the main body of the breeze. A little tap of the whip midway through the turn; he opened up more distance on an umimpressive workmate. The gallop-out is all right. DRF's David Grening had Tax out five furlongs in 1:01.11 and six in 1:14.03. Video .

--On April 25, Haikal, breezed on the main track at Belmont Park in company with the unraced 3-year-old Taamer. The pair started on even terms, and, even though identical times were posted, Haikal was about a length ahead of Taamer when the work ended a furlong beyond the finish line. The hands of Haikal's rider were pretty much motionless. Taamer was left behind in the gallop-out, during which the video ends. It's a little difficult for me to gauge this gallop-out because the turns are Belmont are so extensive, so I'd say it's probably better than it looks. Trainer McLaughlin said after the work that he liked this work better than last week's because Haikal was more in hand and galloped out strongly, whereas last week he was a little fast over a track playing a little fast. Video .

--On April 26, Vekoma breezed at Palm Beach Downs with Javier Castellano aboard in company with Majestic Dunhill who is grade III-placed once from 13 career starts. Per Mike Welsch, after the 59.80 breeze, he set initial splits of 24.01 and 35.93, meaning he finished in just under 24 seconds, and he galloped out six furlongs in 1:12.96, approximately another 13 seconds. Clockers gave both horses an identical time. After pushing Vekoma along a little bit, Castellano was practically motionless in stretch while the other rider was much the same as the two hit the wire together. A nice move for both horses. Video

--On April 26 at Palm Beach Downs, Cutting Humor went four furlongs alone in 48.00 with an initial fraction of 24.95, so he went the second quarter-mile in about 23.00. Per a message trainer Pletcher gave Welcsh, he was out five furlongs in 1:00.97 and six in 1:14.22. As Cutting Humor passed the finish line, neck sweat was visible on his right, but none could be seen on his left as he galloped with energy through the turn and up the backstretch. He didn't stop running on his own; it was a nice gallop-out. Video

--On April 26 at Palm Beach Downs, Spinoff was in company with Last Judgment again. He and the 3-year-old allowance winner were timed in 1:00.77. Per Pletcher via Welsch, initial splits were 25.17 and 37.01, so he finished in about 23.60. He was out out six in 1:13.74 and seven in 1:27.14. Spinoff didn't shake off Last Judgment. Video

--On April 26 at Santa Anita, Roadster's six furlongs were officially timed in 1:13.80 with Martin Garcia up beside Once on Whiskey, who won the Los Alamitos Derby last July, followed by a fifth-place finish in the West Virginia Derby and no races since. Garcia pushed Roadster along a bit. Early splits were 36.40 and 100.80, per Camilla Yakteen, who said he galloped out seven furlongs in 128.20. Trainer Baffert said he timed it as a five-furlong work in 1:01.00. So either the final the work proper was finished in 13.00, or the first furlong of the gallop-out was timed in 13.00 -- and he galloped out another furlong in 15.00. Meanwhile, the workmate basically stopped just after the finish line as Roadster continued to move past it with Garcia continuing to nudge Roadster a bit. Baffert said afterward he thinks the Santa Anita Derby got him fit, a comment a bit different in tone than the one he made after the gate work last time. See below. Video

--On April 26 at Santa Anita, Game Winner worked seven furlongs timed in 1:27.00 with Show Me Da Lute, a 5-year-old allowance horse with one win from 10 starts. Camilla Yakteen tweeted that his early splits were 36.40 (same number as the clockers), 48.20, 100.80 and 1:13.00, meaning he finished the final furlong in 14.00. His rider nudged him along pretty good in the stretch and past the finish line as the workmate slowed considerably. The video ended before the gallop-out did. Trainer Baffert said later that Game Winner is coming around, and that it was Game Winner's best work of the year. Video

SEGMENT 14 NOTES

Catching up on Workouts at Churchill Downs

By Dick Downey
Posted April 23, 2019

Monday morning at Churchill Downs was bright and sunny, and the track was fast. Here's a rundown of the four Kentucky Derby workouts that morning.

-- Improbable went four furlongs solo in 48.00, breezing, under Jose Contreras. His workout was methodical as always. He's a good work horse; he executes the main body of his works pretty much flawlessly almost every time, and he doesn't need company to keep his mind on his business. I recall that, over on the Derby Trail subscription page, we thought his gallop-out before the Arkansas Derby was okay but not spectacular. It wasn't that great on this occasion either, but we should keep in mind this workout came just nine days after the Arkansas Derby. Let's see how things go in Improbable's final pre-Derby workout. We also note that there were no blinkers this time, and we won't be seeing those in the Derby. Blinkers were used in the Arkansas Derby and in his last work before the Arkansas Derby, but trainer Baffert believes they might have caused him to be restless in the gate at Oaklawn and said that he has decided Improbable doesn't need them. Improbable's initial fractions were 11.80, 23.40 and 35.60, and he galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.40. Mike Welsch at DRF had him out five in 1:01.87 and easing up three-quarters in 1:16.94. Video

Trainer Baffert was on hand for the move before leaving town to spend a couple of days at the Ocala sales. He said he liked the move. You have to be wary of trainer-speak in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Not always, though. Last year, we paid a lot of attention to Chad Brown's public comments because he's usually not very talkative with the press. His horse, Good Magic, finished second in the Derby, which is where I picked him, luckily. And Baffert also will often send signals if he has a horse he thinks can win. This year will be tricky to read, though, since he has three horses set for the race.

-- By My Standards went six furlongs and then engaged in a long gallop-out that was impressive in its scope.Gabriel Saez was up. I sense By My Standards is becoming the wise-guy horse, but it's too early to say for sure. Wise-guy horses, that is, horses that generate a lot of talk on the backside, almost never win the Kentucky Derby. By My Standards showed a lot of energy, but he is not the prettiest mover you'll ever see, which is something I said about Mucho Gusto over on the Derby Trail page a few weeks ago before he failed to pan out in the Sunland Derby. The question in my mind is whether, with that kind of gait, By My Standards can be effective at 10 furlongs. By My Standards breezed alone in 1:12.80 starting out with fractions of 12.40, 24.40, 36.40, 48.60 and 1:00.20. He galloped out seven furlongs in 1:26.00. This is trainer Calhoun's first Kentucky Derby horse. Video

--As I'm sure you know, trainer Asmussen often has his horses work in moderate times. Four furlongs in 50.00 is pretty much par for the course. On this occasion, Long Range Toddy worked five furlongs solo. It was a slow move, but he finished the main body of the workout very well. Long Range Toddy's five furlongs was timed in 1:02.60. His early splits were 12.40, 25.00, 37.60 and 50.20, so he finished the final furlong in a nice 12.40. He galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.20, so that part of his exercise was just okay. Assistant trainer Scott Blasi, on a pony, led him off the track and gave a thumbs up to Marty McGee of DRF. Video

-- Tacitus was the last Derby worker of the session. Welsch reported he galloped a mile before breaking off into his workout. We have noted before, over on Derby Trail, that Tacitus is not a very good work horse. Despite the slowish time of the work proper, I thought the work was visually impressive. This is a good-sized horse with a very smooth way of going, and his gallop-out was impressive. Tacitus went four furlongs in 50.00 after opening fractions of 13.40, 25.80 and 38.40, meaning he went the final eighth mile in 11.60. Not bad. He galloped out five furlongs in 1:02.80 and six in 1:15.80. Welsch got him out six in 1:16.25. Tacitus worked in company and distanced his workmate during the gallop-out. According to Welsch, this was "much improved over previous breezes witnessed prior to his final two Derby prep races." Video

SEGMENT 13 NOTES

By Dick Downey
Posted April 21, 2019

Catching Up on Workouts

--On April 13, Maximum Security put in a very slow breeze at Palm Meadows. He clearly wasn't asked for anything, and he didn't show much while under light restraint. The rider looked at his wrist to check his time at the finish line, and that was followed by a good gallop-out with the rider checking the time again at the half-mile pole, only to continue galloping past the quarter-pole. It was a deceptively good morning at the track for Maximum Security, and that is consistent with his race history before the Florida Derby, isn't it? Video . Maximum Security followed up on that move with a three-furlong breeze today in a very slow time. Ordinarily I don't even want to see a three-furlong workout at this level at this time of year. However, once again Maximum Security galloped out well into the far turn. The video ended before he stopped. Interesting stuff for sure. These two workouts, on paper, make Maximum Security look bad, but the videos add another dimension to what is being done with him. I have not ruled out using him. Video

--After Haikal breezed a bullet-of-48 at Belmont Park on April 19, trainer McLaughlin said, "We called an audible because a lot of rain is coming tonight, and things are closed on Easter. I didn't want him tearing the barn down, so we worked him today. We'll probably work back next week. We were only scheduled to work once, but we changed our mind. He worked very well this morning." Video is unavailable.

--On April 19 at Keeneland, War of Will clocked splits of :24.40 and :48.60 before finishing five furlongs in 1.00:20, a bullet-of-9 breezing, on a muddy-sealed track. He galloped out strongly, with his rider pushing him a bit, six furlongs in 1:13.60 and the continued the gallop-out well into the backstretch. He worked solo. Very nice, nothing to criticize about this work. Video

--On April 19 at Palm Beach Downs, Cutting Humor breezed five furlongs in company with Last Judgment, the latter one a maiden and allowance winner in his last two starts, listed at Worth Watching. They posted identical times. Initial fractions were 24.41 and 36.38, per Mike Welsch. When Last Judgment ran by Cutting Humor in the gallop-out, Cutting Humor responded competitively by getting back in front. The gallop-out was excellent up to the point the video ended. These videos should not terminate before the end of the gallop-outs. I am told the entire gallop-out was very strong, and per Welsch it was timed in 1:26.51 for seven furlongs.. Video

--Also at Palm Beach Downs on April 19, Spinoff worked in company with Wooderson, a 4-year-old son of Awesome Again that was last seen finishing seventh in the Oklahoma Derby in September. They posted identical times, but Spinoff was the clear winner of the gallop-out. Initial fractions were 24.46 and 36.47 per Mike Welsch. His gallop-out was very good, only a bit less energetic than that of Cutting Humor, seven furlongs in 1:27.83. Jockey Franco was aboard Spinoff for this workout after flying down from New York the evening before and then flying right back. He said before he left on Thursday, "I'm trying to know the horse. You have to do what you have to do. If you want to ride these types of horses and these types of races, you have to do whatever they ask. They called me to work the horse, so I have to go." Video

--On April 20 at Santa Anita, Roadster worked from the gate in company with an unidentified workmate at Santa Anita. Other coverage of the work also doesn't identify the workmate. Per Jay Privman at DRF Live, clockers timed six furlongs in 1:13.60 and trainer Baffert had him going out the next furlong in 13.20 seconds, and then Roadster continued to gallop out. Roadster was easily better than his workmate, whoever it was. He broke on top and was in front by several lengths right away. Workmate evened things up, and Roadster responded by going well ahead in the stretch. It should be noted the workmate had nothing left in the stretch. Roadster gallloped a quarter-mile past the finish line before the video ends. Video

-- Game Winner also worked on April 20 at Santa Anita with an unidentified workmate, and he, too, drilled the other horse after breaking off a couple of lengths behind. We're used to seeing Game Winner work with Dr. Dorr, but that one ran in the Kona Gold on Saturday, finishing third. Game Winner was pushed along by his rider the last furlong of the work and in the gallop-out, but there was nothing not to like, really. Video

--On April 20 at Churchill Down, Signalman's five furlong breeze in :59.60 on a sloppy-sealed track included opening fractions of 12.20, 23.80, 35.60 and 47.60 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:13.00 and seven in 1:26.20, according to clocker John Nichols. He worked in company with Restless Rider. I haven't found video of the workout, but on paper this is an impressive workout. Signalman still needs defections to make the Derby field.

SEGMENT 12 NOTES

By Dick Downey
Posted April 21, 2019

Frederico Tesio Stakes

Alwaysmining punched his ticket to the Preakness with this 11 1/2-length win, finishing in under 38 seconds but not earning "12's."

The initial stage of the Tesio was kind of odd. The plan was for Alwaysmining to get the early lead, but somehow he wasn't in front after a slow first quarter-mile. After a more honest half-mile, and after taking some dirt, he was four lengths behind. Then jockey Centeno put him in the clear, and it was off to the races with a third quarter-mile timed in 23.30.  After the race, Centeno said Alwaysmining was always comfortable and that he could do whatever he wanted with the horse.

One to watch for the Preakness for sure. His Beyer Speed Figure was only a 92, but Alwaysmining and Centeno coasted home in the stretch. Assuming he thrives in the coming four weeks, Alwaysmining should have plenty of gas left in the tank on May 18.

On a personal note, Greg picked this horse in the fourth round of the draft in our 14-team Triple Crown Fantasy League. In non-restricted stakes like the Tesio, only the winner gets points, and Alwaysmining has come through for us three times. Thanks partly to Alwaysmining, Greg and I are still in contention.

Happy Easter everyone.

Alwaysmining

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.40 (third)
1/2 mile -- :49.67 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.97 (first)
1  mile -- 1:37.65 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.12 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.40
second 1/4 mile -- :24.27
third 1/4 mile -- :23.30
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.68
final 1/8 mile -- :12.47
final 3/8 mile -- :37.15
 

SEGMENT 11 NOTES

Arkansas Derby, Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

By Dick Downey
Posted April 14, 2019

Arkansas Derby

Omaha Beach and Improbable each get credit for running "12's", that is, each of them was within one second of averaging 12 seconds per furlong during at least three calls. For more about 12-second furlongs, see Section 7 below.

Omaha Beach, Improbable, Country House and Laughing Fox all finished the final three furlongs in under 38 seconds. It is more impressive that Omaha Beach and Improbable did that, because they ran faster than the other two horses during the first six furlongs.

The diagram of Omaha Beach's win looked a lot like the winning pattern that has emerged in the Kentucky Derby since 2014: using speed to sit close to the early pace, pouncing to a relatively early lead, and engaging in a high cruising speed to hit the finish line first. See Section 7 below for more info.

Improbable drew post 1 and of course was the first to load. As the gate crew moved the horses into their stalls one at a time, sometimes very slowly, Improbable grew impatient with the process. He reared up once, backed himself out of the gate once and then either backed out or was backed out again. The gate crew managed the situation well, the delay was brief, and Improbable broke well.

When Improbable came to Omaha Beach in the far turn, the latter one just kept hitting gears from there to the finish line and would not allow Improbable to pass him.

Let's note that Omaha Beach ran this race over a sloppy track and came home without much mud discernible from a camera shot. He made that trip and was clear most the way, but he took some dirt early. Improbable took dirt for a longer period of time before going four wide into the far turn. From there, he also had a clear trip.

Long Range Toddy was in great position rounding the far turn, but for whatever reason, he just didn't have it. Jon Court was really working on him before they hit the stretch, and Long Range Toddy couldn't keep up.

In the stretch, both the top finishers ran fairly straight but drifted out just a bit late, no big deal. Omaha Beach won the gallop-out, extending his lead to about two lengths.

Country House and Laughing Fox also drifted out a bit in the stretch, not enough to worry about. Country House outran Laughing Fox by a length from the furlong marker to the finish line, and he stayed ahead of that one in the gallop-out.

Beyer Speed Figures: 101 to Omaha Beach, 100 to Improbable.

Omaha Beach

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.53 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :47.50 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.46 (first)
1  mile -- 1:37.53 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.91 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.53
second 1/4 mile -- :23.97
third 1/4 mile -- :24.96
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.07
final 1/8 mile -- :12.38
final 3/8 mile -- :37.45

Improbable

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.93 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :47.90 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.66 (second)
1  mile -- 1:37.73 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.11 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.93
second 1/4 mile -- :23.97
third 1/4 mile -- :24.76
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.07
final 1/8 mile -- :12.38
final 3/8 mile -- :37.45

Country House

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.73 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :48.85 (tenth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.66 (eighth)
1  mile -- 1:38.53 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.26 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.73
second 1/4 mile -- :24.12
third 1/4 mile -- :24.81
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.87
final 1/8 mile -- :12.73
final 3/8 mile -- :37.60

Laughing Fox

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.13 (eleventh)
1/2 mile -- :49.15 (eleventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.76 (ninth)
1  mile -- 1:38.53 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.46 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.13
second 1/4 mile -- :24.02
third 1/4 mile -- :24.61
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.77
final 1/8 mile -- :12.93
final 3/8 mile -- :37.70



Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

Owendale's fractions are included although there is almost no chance he'll be in the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness hasn't been ruled out, though.

He finished very well. After the race, his assistant trainer seemed at a loss to explain the win, saying the reason he ran so poorly in the Risen Star was that he didn't like eating dirt, but that he won the Lexington after eating dirt. The start of the race didn't go to plan; connections wanted Owendale in the clear.  You just never know, not even when you're in the barn with the horse every day.

Anothertwistafate's race was better than it looked because he was boxed in before and on the far turn for, according to the chart, a quarter-mile as the three horses in front of him were about to spit the bit -- Knicks Go faded from first to finish fourth, Hawaiian Noises from second to ninth, and Zenden from third to eighth. While that was happening, Owendale got the jump on Anothertwistafate from the outside. Bottom line to me is that Anothertwistafate once again showed that he can run well on dirt. However, trainer Wright has pretty much decided Anothertwistafate doesn't like being inside of horses.

Sueno, who looked great before the race, had to fan five wide on the turn to avoid the traffic and finished all right to get third.

Both Anothertwistafate and Sueno need defections to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Owendale received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, and Anothertwistafate got a 95.

Owendale

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.33 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :49.68 (ninth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.53 (eighth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.14 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.33
second 1/4 mile -- :24.35
third 1/4 mile -- :23.85
final 5/16 mile -- :30.61

Anothertwistafate

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.63 (third)
1/2 mile -- :48.63 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.18 (fourth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.49 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.63
second 1/4 mile -- :24.00
third 1/4 mile -- :24.55
final 5/16 mile -- :31.31

Sueno

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.94 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :49.03 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.48 (seventh)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.74 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.94
second 1/4 mile -- :24.09
third 1/4 mile -- :24.45
final 5/16 mile -- :31.26
 

SEGMENT 10 NOTES

Santa Anita Derby, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial

By Dick Downey
Posted April 8, 2019

Santa Anita Derby

Game Winner and Instagrand get credit for running "12's". In other words, each of them was within one second of averaging 12 seconds per furlong during at least three of the five calls of the race. See Section 7 below for more information.

However, none of the top three finishers ran the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less. The fact that Game Winner was unable to do so is a reason he didn't win this race.

Roadster was awarded a 98 Beyer Speed Figure from a time of 1:51.28. As Randy Moss observed on NBCSN before the race, times on dirt had been slow all day at the track due to a deep surface. A review of the charts on this card confirms that.

Roadster polished off the field in a professional manner after sitting behind a moderate pace. Jockey Smith didn't use the whip/crop much, and Roadster was the best horse after a decent trip from off the pace that Smith mapped out. Looks like that throat surgery really did work.

Joel Rosario went to work with his whip/crop on Game Winner before they left the far turn. After Game Winner put away the pace-setting Instagrand inside the furlong marker, he couldn't finish strongly enough to win.

Instagrand maintained his lead into the stretch after being under heavy early pressure from Nolo Contesto. However, once he shook that one off, he was unable to take it on to the wire. He may have distance limitations, but he ran a good race. If he runs in the Pat Day Mile, it would be his third race off the layoff.

All three horses ran a fairly straight line down the stretch.

Roadster didn't gallop out very far. Instagrand and Game Winner were in front during the gallop-out.

The Santa Anita Derby became the 13th Kentucky Derby points race this year to be won by a length or less. I prefer a horse than wins by more than that, but we'll see how the next three weeks and five days go.

Roadster

Fractions

1/4 mile -- :23.74 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :48.24 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.15 (third)
1  mile -- 1:38.54 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.28 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.74
second 1/4 mile -- :24.50
third 1/4 mile -- :24.91
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.39
final 1/8 mile -- :12.74
final 3/8 mile -- :38.13

Game Winner

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.74 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :48.04 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.30 (third)
1  mile -- 1:38.44 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.38 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.74
second 1/4 mile -- :24.30
third 1/4 mile -- :24.26
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.14
final 1/8 mile -- :12.94
final 3/8 mile -- :39.08

Instagrand

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.34 (first)
1/2 mile -- :47.84 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.20 (first)
1  mile -- 1:38.34 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.73 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.34
second 1/4 mile -- :24.50
third 1/4 mile -- :24.36
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.14
final 1/8 mile -- :13.39
final 3/8 mile -- :39.53



Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Vekoma, Win Win Win, Signalman and Somelikeithotbrown all get credit for running "12's".

None of them finished the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less.

Vekoma was awarded a 94 Beyer Speed Figure with a time of 1:50.93.

In the second race, Honest Mischief, a quality Juddmonte 3-year-old maiden, was timed in 1:22.43 for seven furlongs, winning by eight lengths. In race 6, the seven-furlong Commonwealth Stakes, the improving Bobby's Wicked One was timed in 1:22.80 beating a quality field of older horses. The Madison for fillies and mares four and up was race 8, and it was tmed in 1:23.49. Compared to early in the day, maybe the track had slowed down a bit by the Blue Grass, which was race 10.

I took a stand against Vekoma, reasoning that, breaking from post 2, he wouldn't be able to handle being stuck down on the inside. My reasoning fell apart after Javier Castellano hustled him away from the gate and got him to the outside of pacesetter Somelikeithotbrown, who broke from post 1. Instead of being stuck down on the rail and/or between/behind horses, Vekoma got just the kind of trip he needed -- a trip in the clear.

After he entered the stretch, Vekoma didn't promptly change leads. His paddling left foreleg swung around prominently, he drifted out, and he lost momentum. Still, nothing challenged him. He finally switched leads inside the eighth pole and took off again to win by 3 1/2 lengths. Vekoma may very well win the Kentucky Derby, but he'll need to switch leads at the right time.

Castellano said after the race he's crazy about this horse, that after he worked him he had confidence Vekoma would win the Blue Grass with his speed and multiple gears.

Win Win Win, ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., was steadied briefly just past the mid-point of the far turn, but it didn't cost him the win. I agree with the NBC commentators who said he would have been second more easily but for being steadied. I would add that, to his credit, Win Win Win regained his momentum fairly quickly. As he approached the wire, Win Win Win came in a bit.

Signalman saved all the ground and just could not get the job done.  He was given every chance by Brian Hernandez, Jr. Signalman, a large horse, is kind of a plodder -- but he does keep running.

Once again, Signalman won the gallop-out with his ears pricked while passing Vekoma. Into the first turn, Win Win Win and Somelikeithotbrown passed Vekoma, too, but Vekoma galloped out well.

Somelikeithotbrown handled the dirt at Keeneland, but he drifted out in the stretch. He impresses me as a pretty good one-turn horse. If he makes the Kentucky Derby, I expect him to be part of the early pace.

Vekoma

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.46 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.05 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.57 (second)
1  mile -- 1:37.48 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.93 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.46
second 1/4 mile -- :23.59
third 1/4 mile -- :24.52
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.91
final 1/8 mile -- :13.45
final 3/8 mile -- :39.36

Win Win Win

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.91 (thirteenth)
1/2 mile -- :48.48 (eleventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.90 (eighth)
1  mile -- 1:39.08 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.63 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.91
second 1/4 mile -- :23.57
third 1/4 mile -- :24.42
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.18
final 1/8 mile -- :12.55
final 3/8 mile -- :38.73

Signalman

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.66 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.38 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.85 (third)
1  mile -- 1:38.38 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.64 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.66
second 1/4 mile -- :23.72
third 1/4 mile -- :24.47
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.53
final 1/8 mile -- :13.26
final 3/8 mile -- :39.79

Somelikeithotbrown

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.26 (first)
1/2 mile -- :47.03 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.55 (first)
1  mile -- 1:38.18 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.78 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.26
second 1/4 mile -- :23.77
third 1/4 mile -- :24.52
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.63
final 1/8 mile -- :13.60
final 3/8 mile -- :40.23



Wood Memorial

Tacitus and Tax get credit for running "12's".

Only Haikal ran the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less, and he should have after running slowly the first six furlongs.

Tacitus was awarded a 97 Beyer Speed Figure after being timed in 1:51.23.

Joevia broke from post 11, veeried left and sawed off almost all of the inside of the field. It was nearly a disaster. Tacitus, who broke from post 2, was bumped soundly and was checked. Soon after that, I'm not quite sure what happened on the first turn, when Overdeliver was squeezed between Tacitus and Not That Brady, but this was another incident that would bother a lesser horse.

All that said, my point is that Tacitus impressed me favorably because rough stuff doesn't bother him. it's a good trait to possess when you think about all the bumping and crazy things that can happen in the Kentucky Derby. Being a larger horse, Tacitus can dish it out, and he can take it. As Mike "Cheap Speed" Pearson used to say about Smarty Jones, he don't care.

I was wrong about Tax. The top runners from the Withers Stakes had accomplished nothing until Tax came along in this race, and he was very game.  In deep stretch, he was pushed over toward the rail a bit by Tacitus, but watching the head-on, I can't say it changed the outcome of the race.

When I wrote that Joevia sawed off almost all of the inside of the field, it's because Tax, who broke from post 1, was spared. He was just beyond the chaos Joevia caused. In my mind, this makes the win by Tacitus even more impressive.

Last week, trainer McLaughlin said Haikal wouldn't be 14 lengths behind this time, but after a half-mile he was 14 1/2 lengths off the pace. He wasn't totally caught up in the melee caused by Joevia, but he was away from the gate a step slow and wound up behind that bunch of bumped horses.  To Haikal's credit, on the backstretch he responded when asked, and he made an extended run to get up for third, beaten four lengths. All in all, I guess it was a pretty good effort for his first two-turn race, and he makes you think of a horse that could fill out the bottom of some exotic tickets in the Derby.

Tax and Tacitus won the gallop-out together.

Tacitus

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.82 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :48.51 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.96 (fourth)
1  mile -- 1:37.81 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.23 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.82
second 1/4 mile -- :23.69
third 1/4 mile -- :24.45
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.85
final 1/8 mile -- :13.42
final 3/8 mile -- :38.27

Tax

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.52 (third)
1/2 mile -- :48.31 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.46 (third)
1  mile -- 1:37.83 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.48 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.52
second 1/4 mile -- :23.79
third 1/4 mile -- :24.15
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.37
final 1/8 mile -- :13.65
final 3/8 mile -- :39.02

Haikal

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.72 (eighth)
1/2 mile -- :49.81 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:14.26 (eighth)
1  mile -- 1:39.01 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:52.03 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.72
second 1/4 mile -- :24.09
third 1/4 mile -- :24.45
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.75
final 1/8 mile -- :13.02
final 3/8 mile -- :37.77
 

SEGMENT 9 NOTES

Florida Derby, UAE Derby

By Dick Downey
Posted March 31, 2019

Florida Derby

The top four finishers in the Florida Derby all finished the final 3/8 mile in under 38 seconds. Code of Honor and Bourbon War certainly should have done that, as slow as they ran the first six furlongs. Maximum Security and Bodexpress didn't exactly set fast early fractions, but they were on the lead and still managed to come home fast. Can anyone remember a 3-year-old that finished a nine-furlong race in under 36 seconds? That's what Maximum Security did.

Maximum Security and Bodexpress both get credit for running 12-second furlongs (see Section 7 for more about that) in the Florida Derby. I am giving credit to Bodexpress for hitting mark at three of the five calls, as he was only 8/100 of a second from running the first half-mile in 49.00, which is within one second of averaging 12 seconds per furlong at that point.

Maximum Security is one of the few 3-year-olds I can remember to average within one second of 12 seconds per furlong at every call of a nine furlong race, and I've been looking closely at this since 2003. In this respect, he ran a perfect race. Thinking back, maybe Smarty Jones did that in the Arkansas Derby. I don't have time today to dig into the subject in a meaningful way.

As well as Maximum Security ran, I have to admit I'm flummoxed at the outcome of the Florida Derby in more than one way, and I suspect many of you  are as well.

It's not that I didn't give Maximum Security a chance to win, because I did even though he'd never been two turns. The thing I cannot figure out, and may never figure out, is why his path to the Florida Derby consisted of a $16,000 maiden claiming race and two starter allowance races. Who does that?

According to Equibase, trainer Servis is winning at a 38 percent clip at all tracks this year, and at Gulfstream Park his win rate was 45 percent when the Florida Derby PPs were released. How is he doing that?

Gary and Mary West own Maximum Security. Gary West is a player at the windows. Maybe he wanted to keep Maximum Security under the radar for as long as possible and then make a killing in the Florida Derby. That's the only thing I can come up with, but I don't have any idea if this is true. If it is, then why did West risk the horse being claimed? It's a total head-scratcher.

By the way, since the Wests also own Game Winner, in the coming weeks I'll be thinking about which one of them I'd take one-on-one in the Kentucky Derby.

This horse Bodexpress is another complete puzzle. He did not attain his reserve at two different sales. He RNA'd for $45,000 at Keeneland September 2017 and for $37,000 at Fasig-Tipton Midatlantic 2018. He is a maiden that had never gone two turns before yesterday. How does a horse like that finish a clear second in the Florida Derby? It's crazy, but I suppose the only answer is that, somehow, he ran a career-best race while the rest of the field, other than Maximum Security, sat back and watched a moderate-to-slow pace unfold in front of them and did nothing about it. I'm talking to you, Code of Honor/John Velazquez and Bourbon War/Irad Ortiz, Jr. If Maximum Security hadn't run such a strong race, I'd say the Florida Derby was handed to him on a silver platter.

If any of you have thoughts about this, I'd be happy to hear from you.

Oh, and a 101 Beyer Speed Figure was awarded to Maximum Security. Bodexpress got a 96.

Maximum Security

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.42 (first)
1/2 mile -- :48.98 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.90 (first)
1  mile -- 1:36.34 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.86 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.42
second 1/4 mile -- :24.56
third 1/4 mile -- :23.92
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.44
final 1/8 mile -- :12.52
final 3/8 mile -- :35.96

Bodexpress

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.62 (second)
1/2 mile -- :49.08 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.10 (second)
1  mile -- 1:36.94 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.56 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.62
second 1/4 mile -- :24.46
third 1/4 mile -- :24.02
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.84
final 1/8 mile -- :12.62
final 3/8 mile -- :36.46

Code of Honor

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.32 (eighth)
1/2 mile -- :49.73 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.50 (fifth)
1  mile -- 1:37.64 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.21 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.32
second 1/4 mile -- :24.41
third 1/4 mile -- :23.77
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.14
final 1/8 mile -- :12.57
final 3/8 mile -- :36.71

Bourbon War

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.42 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :50.03 (ninth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.80 (seventh)
1  mile -- 1:38.04 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.36 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.42
second 1/4 mile -- :24.61
third 1/4 mile -- :23.77
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.24
final 1/8 mile -- :12.32
final 3/8 mile -- :36.56

UAE Derby

At one time, Emirates Racing Authority posted the fractional times of every horse in every race on Dubai World Cup day, but if they still do that, I can't find the information. I've looked around for it three times.

The time of the race, 1:58.41 for a tad over 1 3/16 mile, is not a good harbinger for Plus Que Parfait if he is sent to the Kentucky Derby. Furthermoer, the ship to Dubai and back normally takes a lot out of U. S.-based horses, so you'd think Plus Que Parfait wouldn't have much of a shot in the Derby, but who knows what will happen in this crazy year?

Ownership of Gray Magician said yesterday he's highly unlikely for the Kentucky Derby -- that yesterday was his Kentucky Derby.

For your perusal, here are relevant excerpts from the Stewards Report that followed the UAE Derby.

"Jockey J Ortiz (PLUS QUE PARFAIT (USA)) was fined AED 2000 under the provisions of ERA Rule 69B(c)(vii) for hitting his mount continuously without giving it a chance to respond. In assessing the penalty Stewards noted that today’s event was a Group 2 race and that he won the race."

"Jockey J Ortiz (PLUS QUE PARFAIT (USA)) pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding under the provisions of ERA Rule 69(i), the particulars of the charge being that near the 500 metres he permitted his mount to shift out when insufficiently clear of DIVINE IMAGE (USA)(W Buick), which had to be checked to avoid the heels of PLUS QUE PARFAIT (USA). J Ortiz had his license to ride in races suspended for two race meetings (Al Ain 11.4.2019 and Meydan 12.4.2019). In assessing penalty Stewards took into account J Ortiz’s good careless riding record."

"GRAY MAGICIAN (USA) - (J Rosario): Near the 1700 metres became unbalanced when racing in restricted room between other runners."
 

SEGMENT 8 NOTES

By Dick Downey
Posted March 25, 2019

Sunland Derby

None of these horses ran 12-second furlongs, but it's because their early fractions were too fast to qualify. Cutting Humor and Anothertwistafate did, however, employ a running style that has won the Kentucky Derby for several years running. See Section 7 below for more details about that.

Cutting Humor and Anothertwistafate both finished the final three furlongs in less than 38 seconds. Let's face it, the track at Sunland Park always seems to play fast on Sunland Derby day, so I don't know how much stock we can put into the way these horses finished.

Anothertwistafate ran on dirt for the second time. The first time, a sprint, was a disaster, but this time he didn't have to take any dirt in his face. Since Anothertwistafate possesses excellent early speed, perhaps he can use that to his advantage going forward.

Cutting Humor set a track record and was awarded a 95 Beyer Speed Rating, so that alone tells us something about how fast the strip was playing.

Cutting Humor and Anothertwistafate galloped out together.

Mucho Gusto did not look like a serious Kentucky Derby contender.

We are not getting much clarity from most of this year's preps. These 2019 Kentucky Derby points races were won by one length or less: Sham Stakes, Smarty Jones Stakes, Holy Bull Stakes, Withers Stakes, Southwest Stakes, Fountain of Youth Stakes, Gotham Stakes, Rebel Stakes I, Rebel Stakes II, Louisiana Derby and the Sunland Derby.

These 2019 point  races were won by more than a length:
--Jerome Stakes, Mind Control 1 1/2 (may revert to one-turn races)
--LeComte Stakes, War of Will 4 (off the board in the Louisiana Derby)
--Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Mucho Gusto 4 3/4 (poor third in the Sunland Derby)
--Sam F. Davis Stakes, Well Defined 2 3/4 (unlikely to make the Kentucky Derby)
--El Camino Real Derby, Anothertwistafate 7
--Risen Star Stakes, War of Will 2 1/4 (off the board in the Louisiana Derby)
--Jeff Ruby Steaks, Somelikeithotbrown 3 1/4
--Tampa Bay Derby, Tacitus 1 1/4

Cutting Humor

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.36 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :45.98 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.93  (third)
1  mile -- 1:34.76 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:46.94 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.36
second 1/4 mile -- :22.62
third 1/4 mile -- :23.95
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.83
final 1/8 mile -- :12.18
final 3/8 mile -- :37.01

Anothertwistafate

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.86 (second)
1/2 mile -- :45.93 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.95 (fourth)
1  mile -- 1:35.06 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:46.99 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.86
second 1/4 mile -- :23.07
third 1/4 mile -- :24.02
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.11
final 1/8 mile -- :11.93
final 3/8 mile -- :37.04

Mucho Gusto

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.76 (first)
1/2 mile -- :45.63 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.63 (first)
1  mile -- 1:34.86 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.14 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.76
second 1/4 mile -- :22.87
third 1/4 mile -- :24.00
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.23
final 1/8 mile -- :13.28
final 3/8 mile -- :38.51
 

SEGMENT 7 NOTES

By Dick Downey
Posted March 24, 2019

Louisiana Derby

So that we can find this easily on later review, I'll go ahead and note that three horses ran 12-second furlongs. That is, they were within one second of averaging 12 seconds per furlongs at three or more points of call during the race. Those horses are By My Standards, Spinoff and Sueno. If we give By My Standards credit for getting the mile in 1:37.06, which I do because 6/100 of a second is a mere blink of an eye, he hit the mark at four calls. Spinoff hit the mark at four calls, and Sueno gets credit for four calls for the same reason By My Standards does.

By My Standards and Spinoff get credit for finishing the last three furlongs in 38 seconds or less.

A lot of thought goes into these races, from management to connections  to most of the jockeys to handicappers, and a lot of people in between. So it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that a horse with a last-race, maiden-breaking 77 Beyer Speed Figure, which was upgraded to an 86, will win the Louisiana Derby next time out, right?

The best I can tell, By My Standards was 45-1 with not much time left to post, and he went off at 22-1. His owner is Chester Thomas from Madisonville, Ky. I've met Mr. Thomas, and he is a very likeable, free-wheeling type of person. I have no doubt he loaded up on his horse, and good for him.

As for the rest of us, I don't know a rational way to predict By My Standards could jump from a 86 Beyer to a 97 Beyer in the span of one race regardless of how well his trainer says he was doing in the mornings. When I made selections for the race, I knew that By My Standards got a 90 Brisnet figure in his maiden-breaker, and that was close to the 93 Spinoff got in his Tampa allowance race. With those figures in mind, I still figured By My Standards beat nothing in that maiden race, and he pretty much didn't, yet here we are. Oh well, such is life.

I made the mistake of listening to track announcer John G. Dooley say, during a podcast last week, that the backside locals told him Spinoff wasn't a good play. Either they were wrong or they were playing Dooley. I would certainly hope Dooley was not playing us. I should have ignored the comment and relied on my own judgment. Mistake learned. Spinoff ran a formful race. However, he coudn't finish it off. He led by a length at the furlong marker, but he lost by 3/4 length.

During the first six furlongs, Sueno was in second place, which is the position I thought I would see from War of Will. As things turned out, Sueno was in a perfect stalking position behind a suspect pacesetter, Lemniscate, but he couldn't get the job done.

The Louisiana Derby was close to being a carousel race, with the top three finishers being part of the top four at each call. Only two horses got off the carousel. Lemniscate was one of them. He went from first to last in the stretch. On the other end of the spectrum, only Country House made a forward move from well off the pace. Yet, despite his soft early fractions, he finished the final three furlongs in an unexciting 39 seconds and settled for fourth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths.

As we all know, War of Will finished ninth. Last evening, trainer Casse said War of Will was "significantly off" after the race. Quite frankly, I am skeptical. During the infamous podcast referenced above, Casse said Our Braintrust was "significantly off" after he finished last in division two of the Rebel Stakes. The good news, Casse said, is that Our Braintrust was fine the next morning. And that's what we're hearing from Casse today about War of Will.

War of Will got off to a slow start after he lost his footing in his hindquarters, and then, for the first time in his career, he had to start taking dirt. It is perfectly plausible that this was his undoing.

War of Will's debut race on dirt, which he won, was on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. He came home clean as a whistle. In the LeComte Stakes, he was behind Manny Wah for one stride in the first turn,  when jockey Gaffalione quickly guided him to the outside, and that's where he stayed until he got the lead. In the Risen Star, he broke from post 13 and avoided kickback once again except for a very brief moment when Gun It ran in front of him before going to the lead, at which time Gaffalione kept War of Will a path outside of the leader.

As we all know, War of Will began his career as a turf horse. Sometimes turf horses are turf horses for no reason other than that they can't handle kickback.

In the Louisiana Derby, I thought War of Will would establish his typical stalking trip behind one or two horses and take command on the second turn. When his back feet came out from under him after he left the gate, he found himself between horses with no escape path. He ran a prolonged period taking dirt for the first time in his racing life, and I think it was his undoing.

By My Standards

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.13 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :48.38 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.74 (fourth)
1  mile -- 1:37.06 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.53 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.13
second 1/4 mile -- :24.25
third 1/4 mile -- :23.36
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.32
final 1/8 mile -- :12.47
final 3/8 mile -- :37.79

Spinoff

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.23 (third)
1/2 mile -- :48.18 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.74 (third)
1  mile -- 1:36.84 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.68 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.23
second 1/4 mile -- :23.95
third 1/4 mile -- :23.56
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.10
final 1/8 mile -- :12.84
final 3/8 mile -- :37.94

Sueno

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.93 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.78 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.64 (second)
1  mile -- 1:37.04 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.68 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.93
second 1/4 mile -- :23.85
third 1/4 mile -- :23.86
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.40
final 1/8 mile -- :13.64
final 3/8 mile -- :39.04

Country House

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.23 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :49.08 (ninth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.19 (seventh)
1  mile -- 1:37.14 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.83 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.23
second 1/4 mile -- :23.85
third 1/4 mile -- :23.11
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.95
final 1/8 mile -- :13.69
final 3/8 mile -- :38.64
 

  SEGMENT 6 NOTES

Rebel Stakes, Divisions One and Two; Private Terms Stakes

By Dick Downey
Posted March 17, 2019

Rebel Stakes, Division One

The final 5/16 mile of this race was run in barely over 30 seconds by the winner, and I find that to be impressive. Jon Court gave him a great ride, too. It'll be good to see Court, a good guy, in the Kentucky Derby if all goes well for Long Range Toddy.

Long Range Toddy is one of those horses that is thriving as he matures during his sophomore year of racing. I'm not saying he'll win the Kentucky Derby, but if he continues to flourish, he could be one of the ones when the day arrives.

This was a team effort. Court told trainer Asmussen several days ago that Long Range Toddy is push-button. Court, riding Long Range Toddy in a race for the first time, helped Long Range Toddy settle in the backstretch, and that was key in pulling off the win.

Improbable did very well considering the three-month layoff, being shipped a long distance for the first time and his wide trip on both turns. He's an impressive horse. But is he the kind of horse that has won two Triple Crowns for trainer Baffert? The jury is still out, but I'm leaning against for the moment.

Galilean ran a very good race. I'm sure his connections always count their blessings, but when all is said and done, I have to think they are a tad disappointed. When he ran into the stretch, Galilean surged to the lead -- but in a couple of beats Improbable had run by him. To his credit, Galilean stayed on to finish an unchallenged third. Was Galilean a bit too aggressive early in the race?

Extra Hope did what I thought he would do, which was to run prominently early but not sustain his speed to the finish line. If Extra Hope were to make the Kentucky Derby field, I would be surprised if he didn't supply some early speed, but I'd be shocked if he were able to carry it a mile and a quarter.

The gallop-out belonged to Long Range Toddy and Improbable, with the latter one extending it a little bit further.

Long Range Toddy earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure for the win.

Long Range Toddy

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.79 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.95 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.32 (fifth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.49 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.79
second 1/4 mile -- :24.16
third 1/4 mile -- :24.37
final 5/16 mile -- :30.17

Improbable

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.37 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :47.93 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.02 (fourth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.54 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.37
second 1/4 mile -- :23.56
third 1/4 mile -- :24.09
final 5/16 mile -- :30.52

Galilean

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.97 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.60 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.99 (third)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.99 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.97
second 1/4 mile -- :23.63
third 1/4 mile -- :24.39
final 5/16 mile -- :31.00

Extra Hope

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.17 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.58 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.97 (first)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:43.19 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.17
second 1/4 mile -- :23.41
third 1/4 mile -- :24.39
final 5/16 mile -- :31.22


Rebel Stakes, Division Two

Going into Saturday, some observers believed this was the more competitive of the two Rebel divisions, but as things turned out, it was a two-horse race.

Omaha Beach carried his speed a long way and fended off a come-and-get-em Game Winnner. Game Winner bumped Omaha Beach nearing the wire, and he probably saved the stewards some serious delibations by winning anyway, so I would say Omaha Beach is one tough horse.

Game Winner was only two wide around the first turn, but he was four wide around the second one. He almost overcame that disadvantage, but it wasn't without Joel Rosario pushing on him very hard around the far turn while Mike Smith was sitting chilly on Omaha Beach.  Despite these disparities, Omaha Beach outran Game Winner to the furlong marker. From there to the wire, Omaha Beach surrendered two lengths to Game Winner, but he tenaciously turned back the challenge and then galloped out several lengths ahead of Game Winner.

Like Improbable, there is no doubt that Game Winner was impressive, but did we see the kind of horse that has won two Triple Crowns for trainer Baffert?

Market King isn't the kind of horse that moves me to think about the Kentucky Derby. Gunmetal Gray, on the other hand, may not be the fastest horse in the world, but he never stops trying. He keeps building his Kentuky Derby points total, too. This was his fifth consecutive graded stakes race, and he's picked up Derby points in four of them. He has 21.75 points now and may need a few more to make the cut.

I want to say that in my opinion, these two divisions of the Rebel are not a defining moment on this year's Kentucky Derby Trail. We have to see the nine-furlong races, and they are about to begin.

Omaha Beach earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the Rebel, and so I assume Game Winner did as well.

Here's a big Thank You to Oaklawn Park, too. The management of that track is a breath of fresh air during a difficult time in our sport.

Omaha Beach

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.94 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.29 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.82 (first)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.42 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.94
second 1/4 mile -- :23.35
third 1/4 mile -- :24.53
final 5/16 mile -- :30.60

Game Winner

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.54 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :47.94 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.02 (second)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.43 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.54
second 1/4 mile -- :23.40
third 1/4 mile -- :24.08
final 5/16 mile -- :30.41


Private Terms Stakes

The Commish and I have Alwaysmining in our Triple Crown Fantasy League stable. In that contest, points are awarded only to the winner of races like the Private Terms Stakes, and he sure has come through for us, taking both the Miracle Wood and the Private Terms, and so easily too. Next on that progression of stakes at Laurel Park is the Frederico Tesio.

By winning the Private Terms, Alwaysmining has shown two turns are not an issue, so there are some obvious considerations outside of Maryland.

Three weeks from now are the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby. No way will Alwaysmining be shipped to Santa Anita; nominations for the Wood aren't closed yet; and he is nominated to the Toyota Blue Grass. The Arkansas Derby on April 13 is four weeks away, and nominations aren't closed yet. If making the Kentucky Derby is a goal, there's still time to try to get in. If it's unlikely he'll be run back in three weeks, then the Arkansas Derby is the viable route to the Kentucky Derby for Alwaysmining.

If connections want to keep a winning formula intact, they have the option to stay at Laurel for the Tesio on April 20. If Alwaysmining wins, he'll get a free pass to the Preakness.

If you're an owner, this is a good problem to have.

A mile and a sixteenth is a mile and 330 feet. This distance of the Private Terms is called "about" a mile and a sixteenth. The oval at Laureal is a mile and 600 feet. I can't find a resource that says whether "about" means more or less than a mile and a sixteenth at Laurel Park. Regardless, Alwaysmining clicked off 12-second furlongs easy as can be, he finished very strongly, and I would say he could've run around the track again.

The winning Beyer Speed Figure wasn't available as of this post.

Alwaysmining

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.38 ()
1/2 mile -- :48.44 ()
3/4 mile -- 1:12.66 ()
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.65 ()

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.38
second 1/4 mile -- :24.06
third 1/4 mile -- :24.22
final 5/16 mile -- :29.99
 

  SEGMENT 5 NOTES

Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham Stakes, Jeff Ruby Steaks

By Dick Downey
Posted March 10, 2019

Tampa Bay Derby

Two things got my attention right away: Even thoughTacitus set a stakes record and was only .15 second off the track record, the first seven finishers of the Tampa Bay Derby were separated by only 4 1/4 lengths. If time were the only factor, wow, what a strong group of horses. Let's take a look at other main-track races on the card. There were several turf races, which of course is irrelevant to this analysis.

The second race on the card was for 3-year-old maidens going a mile and 40 yards, and the winning time of 1:40.03 was less than a second off the track record. However, the margins between the top finishers were much larger than they were in the Tampa Bay Derby.

In the fourth race, an allowance optional claimer for older horses at the same distance as the maiden race, the time was .12 second off the track record. The margins between the top finishers wasn't as great as the margins in race 2, but nine lengths separated the top five finishers.

The 1 1/16-mile Challenger Stakes was won by Flameaway in 1:41.89, which is .14 second off the track record. The top three finishers were separated by 4 1/4 lengths, and the field of six was separated by 7 3/4 lengths.

This just proves once again it's best to keep an open mind before all the evidence is in. Before looking into this, I thought that a very firm dirt track resulted in the fast time of the Tampa Bay Derby and that the close finish diminished the win by Tacitus. I do conclude that a very firm surface contributed to the fast winning time, but, based on the margins in the other races, and as hard as it is for me to believe, maybe the depth of this field is better than I thought.  

Only time will tell. It probably depends on how good Tacitus is. Amazing to me, none of the top four finishers had ever been two turns before, and perhaps this fact alone diminishes the race.

For two reasons, it would be best to put the top seven finishers on your watch list if they're not already there (1) to see how they perform in the future and (2) to see if they stay sound after running on that surface.

Quite frankly, the win by Tacitus surprised me. That's what I get for paying attention to workouts, I suppose. Here is a video of his Feb. 22 workout in company with Hidden Scroll. You have to wait for them to come out of the fog, but note how his rider had to work on him with the whip, first leaving the turn and repeatedly in the stretch. I couldn't find video of his March 3 workout, so I don't know how that one went. Note in the internal fractions below, Tacitus sped up as the quarter-miles progressed. That, by itself, is a good sign.

Outshine is bred to like longer distances than this, but he was outgamed to the wire by Tacitus, who had a bit shorter trip. I look for better things ahead.

Win Win Win and Tacitus were close to each other during the first six furlongs, and Tacitus was better after that.  I think he showed he can run two turns. But whether nine furlongs is within his scope is yet to be determined.

Zenden tried to steal this race, making me think THIS was his Kentucky Derby. He looks like he could turn into a darn good sprinter.

Dream Maker, the second betting choice, appears to be unable to deal with adversity. He had trouble at the start of this race like he did in the Breeders Futurity, and the result each time was awful. Trainer Casse said today he'll add blinkers for the Toyota Blue Grass, the track where Dream Maker was so bad as the favorite in his last start of 2018.

Tacitus

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.09 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :47.95 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.17 (seventh)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:41.90 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.09
second 1/4 mile -- :23.86
third 1/4 mile -- :23.22
final 5/16 mile -- :30.73

Outshine

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.89 (third)
1/2 mile -- :46.75 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.27 (third)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.15 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.89
second 1/4 mile -- :22.86
third 1/4 mile -- :23.52
final 5/16 mile -- :31.88

Win Win Win

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.79 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :48.05 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.07 (sixth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.40 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.79
second 1/4 mile -- :23.26
third 1/4 mile -- :23.02
final 5/16 mile -- :31.33

Zenden

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.79 (first)
1/2 mile -- :45.85 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.57 (first)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:42.50 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.79
second 1/4 mile -- :23.06
third 1/4 mile -- :23.72
final 5/16 mile -- :32.93


Gotham Stakes

As much as I liked Haikal's effort in the Gotham, and as thrilling as it was to watch, this race gives us no clue about the Kentucky Derby. When all is said and done, it's still a one-turn mile, a race that is, as one trainer said a few weeks ago, "for sprinters". The fractional times certainly bear that out.

Haikal is bred to run a strong mile, so the question is whether he can go longer. I'll tell you what, he is a run-em-down horse, and I love that attitude. He folows instruction, too. A really neat horse.

Mind Control, who might be best at one turn, at least showed he can rate off the pace. I don't see him winning the Kentucky Derby unless he improves a lot, but that's what this time of year is all about. My only criticism of him is that once he came to Much Better, he hung. He doesn't have the go-get-em instinct of Haikal.

You know I don't always go with the grain in these commentaries, but in the case of Instagrand, I have to agree with others who said he never looked totally comfortable. Yes, it was his first race in seven months. But when he didn't get the lead, he seemed like a different horse than we saw last year, and he had to be asked a lot. And, like Mind Control, once he came to Much Better, he hung.

Much Better may be a world-class sprinter when the day is done. This is one fast horse. I guess you have to wonder if he's able to rate his speed after seeing those early fractions. But to his credit, he showed guts holding on in the stretch after burning up the track to that point.

Haikal

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.81 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :47.22 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.93 (fifth)
1  mile -- 1:35.63 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.81
second 1/4 mile -- :22.41
third 1/4 mile -- :23.71
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.70

Mind Control

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.71 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :46.02 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.93 (third)
1 mile -- 1:35.83 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.71
second 1/4 mile -- :22.31
third 1/4 mile -- :23.91
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.90

Instagrand

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.06 (third)
1/2 mile -- :45.32 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.93 (second)
1  mile -- 1:35.93 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.06
second 1/4 mile -- :22.26
third 1/4 mile -- :24.61
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.00

Much Better

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.36 (first)
1/2 mile -- :44.42 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.23 (first)
1 mile -- 1:35.95 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.36
second 1/4 mile -- :22.06
third 1/4 mile -- :24.81
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.72


Jeff Ruby Steaks

Somelikeithotbrown has one dirt race, and it didn't go well, but he sure likes synthetic track. He will have to finish faster than he did in this race to be effective against tougher competition. It's possible he could do that if he doesn't run the first six furlongs in 1:10 and change.

Somelikeithotbrown

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.65 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.03 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.78 (first)
1  mile -- 1:37.84 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:52.05 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.65
second 1/4 mile -- :23.38
third 1/4 mile -- :23.75
fourth 1/4 mile -- :27.06
final 1/8 mile -- :14.21
final 3/8 mile -- :41.26
 

SEGMENT 4 NOTES

Fountain of Youth Stakes, Santa Anita allowance

By Dick Downey
Posted March 3, 2019

Fountain of Youth Stakes

Code of Honor was awarded a 95 Beyer Speed Figure in the Fountain of Youth.

You have to give credit to trainer McGaughey for figuring out that, even though Code of Honor is on the small side, he needed more rigorous training than he was getting before he flubbed the Mucho Macho Man stakes. The plan worked.

Bourbon War ran best of all through the lane, gaining 3 3/4 lengths on Code of Honor during the final furlong. As trainer Hennig said, more distance shouldn't be a problem for Bourbon War.

Both Code of Honor and Bourbon War, the latter last into the first turn, saved ground through that turn. Code of Honor stayed on the rail to save more ground through the second turn, while Bourbon War split through Epic Dreamer and Signalman while never far from the rail.

Code of Honor's time for the final 5/16 mile is well over 30 seconds, and for that matter so are all the other finishing times. Once he got the lead, Code of Honor waited on other horses, so that slowed him down a bit. Although it's not mentioned in the chart, Bourbon War lacked room around the quarter-pole while behind Epic Dreamer and Signalman -- trainer Hennig said he "waited and waited" -- so that delayed his finishing time and perhaps cost him the race. Regardless of their finishing times, it was a very good effort by both horses.

Vekoma acquitted himself nicely with three things going against him: long layoff, only his third career start, and his first start around two turns. I mentioned in my selections piece on the Derby Trail subscription that although Vekoma paddles his left foreleg, this distance shouldn't be a problem, and it wasn't. Longer distances, we'll have to see.

As for Hidden Scroll, my thesis in making him the top selection in the Fountain of Youth could be boiled down to this: "Who am I to second-guess Bill Mott?" I am sure trainer Mott is doing just that today, and I won't dwell on it.

I will say that I made the observation in the selections piece that "the first major test for the top choice could be whether he can sit off the early pace in a race situation." Instead of doing that, early in the race Hidden Scroll engaged, then got in front of 132-1 longshot Gladiator King, which of course wasn't necessary at all. Was it Joel Rosario's fault this happened? It's hard to say, but I'm thinking it wasn't. After the race Rosario said, "The trip was fine, but in the beginning he showed too much speed. He did that last time and he stayed on, but going two turns today for the first time, he got a little tired in the end."

Bill Mott has won almost 5,000 races for a reason. Time will tell if Mott takes Hidden Scroll off the Derby Trail. Assuming he came out of the race in good condition, it could depend on whether the colt can be taught to rate effectively.

Two more observations.

I read a post on Twitter that led me to take a second look at Code of Honor. At the end of the race, he was stepping high like a turf runner, as the tweet suggested.

And now, the gallop-out. It belonged to two horses. As you might expect, Bourbon War was one of them. But the other one was not Code of Honor, and it wasn't Vekoma or Hidden Scroll or even Global Campaign, who finished fifth despite grabbing a quarter pretty badly during the race. And it was wasn't Union's Destiny, who finished sixth at 94-1. It was Signalman, seventh by seven lengths, who galloped out on even terms with Bourbon War. He disappointed me in the Fountain of Youth, but it might not be a good idea to abandon him next time out.

Code of Honor

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.30 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :47.39 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.22 (third)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:43.85 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.30
second 1/4 mile -- :23.09
third 1/4 mile -- :23.83
final 5/16 mile -- :32.63

Bourbon War

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.00 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :47.69 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:1 1.87 (eighth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.00 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.00
second 1/4 mile -- :22.69
third 1/4 mile -- :24.18
final 5/16 mile -- :32.13

Vekoma

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.20 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.09 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.22 (fourth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.40 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.20
second 1/4 mile -- :22.89
third 1/4 mile -- :24.13
final 5/16 mile -- :33.18

Hidden Scroll

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.80 (first)
1/2 mile -- :45.69 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.42 (first)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.45 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.80
second 1/4 mile -- :22.89
third 1/4 mile -- :24.73
final 5/16 mile -- :34.03


Santa Anita Allowance

Roadster had exactly the same things going against him in this race that challenged Vekoma in the Fountain of Youth, and more -- long layoff, only his third career start, and his first start around two turns. On top of of all that, he won on a sloppy surface, something he was encountering for the first time. The final time of 1:37.53 isn't all that stimulating, but Roadster earned a respectable 91 Beyer figure, and, again, he overcame a lot to win, albeit against competition that was, for the most, part suspect.

If Roadster makes it to the Kentucky Derby, it would be after following a chronological path similar to that of 2012 Derby winner I'll Have Another, whose last race as a juvenile was in early September. He was away from the races until he won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes five months later. He won the Santa Anita Derby en route to Louisville.

I thought Nolo Contesto looked a bit uncomfortable. Based on his pre-race workouts, he needed a faster early pace to set up a late run, but in this small field he didn't get it. It may also be that Nolo Contesto would prefer being outside of horses, which he wasn't most of the race. He showed good courage in the stretch to get second place after it looked like Manhattan Up had his number, so I'm not writing off Nolo Contesto yet.

Nolo Contesto's camp has to be wondering about their luck. The reason he was scratched from the Robert B. Lewis was the track came up sloppy. This allowance race with no Derby points became available, and he needed to race, so he was entered, and the track came up sloppy again.

Roadster

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.07 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.95 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.26 (second)
1  mile -- 1:37.53 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.07
second 1/4 mile -- :23.88
third 1/4 mile -- :25.31
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.27

Nolo Contesto

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.05 (second)
1/2 mile -- :48.15 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.46 (fourth)
1  mile -- 1:38.03 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.05
second 1/4 mile -- :24.10
third 1/4 mile -- :25.31
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.57

Manhattan Up, who finished a half-length behind Nolo Contesto, isn't nominated to the Triple Crown.
 

SEGMENT 3 NOTES

California Cup Derby; Southwest Stakes

By Dick Downey
Posted Feb. 19, 2019

California Cup Derby

Galilean ran the second quarter-mile of this race faster than the first quarter-mile, and he ran the third quarter-mile faster than the second one. The finishing time was slow, but Galilean won by 4 1/2 lengths "under a moderate hand ride," per the Equibase chart, leading me to think more was there if it had been needed.

It's acknowledged only four other horses ran and that they weren't top horses by any means. We'll have to see another race to know if Galilean is the real deal. But I saw nothing to dissuade me from that thought in the California Cup Derby.

That was the whole point of this race for his connections, I think. He needed to pass this test, and if he did, it's on to deeper waters. In my opinion, he passed the test with flying colors.

Galilean

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.15 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.95 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.62 (third)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:43.43 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.15
second 1/4 mile -- :23.80
third 1/4 mile -- :23.67
final 5/16 mile -- :31.81


Southwest Stakes

I don't think we saw the Kentucky Derby winner in the Southwest Stakes.  Any given 3-year-old Thoroughbred can improve rapidly at this time of year, though, so I'm not making any predictions yet. It's way too early on the Derby Trail to be brash.

I didn't care for the race. It looked like a jumble while it was being run into and through the second turn, and the chart looks like a jumble, too. After six furlongs, only 3 1/4 lengths separated the entire field as horses were bobbing back and forth in relation to the pace.

The race fell apart twice, maybe three times.  First, when the early leaders went by the wayside. That looked awful. Second, when the field left the far turn. It was not a pretty sight for most of them.

Then, arguably, the race almost fell apart a third time. Super Steed emerged in the stretch a clear leader, led by three lengths at the furlong marker and then saw almost all his margin evaporate to Sueno, who finished the last 5 1/6 mile in a fraction over 31 seconds, i. e., not all that fast. To be fair, Super Steed's jockey, Terry Thompson, lost his whip at the eighth pole, so maybe the loss of margin can be attributed to that.

The winner earned an 87 Beyer. Earlier on the card, Steve Asmussen trainee Laughing Fox earned an 87 Beyer winning an allowance race at the same distance, arguably good enough to win the Southwest Stakes and better than any of Asmussen's five starters in the Southwest. Sometimes it's a mixed-up world.

By way, I checked the TCFL draft chart in Segment 1 NOTES below, and if anyone drafted Super Steed, I can't find it. We drafted 112 horses in all.

Super Steed

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.48 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :48.33 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.83 (fifth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.05 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.48
second 1/4 mile -- :23.85
third 1/4 mile -- :24.50
final 5/16 mile -- :31.22

Sueno

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.93 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :47.93 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.13 (eighth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.20 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.93
second 1/4 mile -- :24.00
third 1/4 mile -- :25.20
final 5/16 mile -- :31.07

Long Range Toddy

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.83 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.93 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.03 (sixth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.45 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.83
second 1/4 mile -- :24.10
third 1/4 mile -- :25.10
final 5/16 mile -- :31.42

Six Shooter

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.68 (tenth)
1/2 mile -- :48.53 (eleventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:1 3.13(ninth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.70 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.68
second 1/4 mile -- :23.85
third 1/4 mile -- :24.60
final 5/16 mile -- :31.57

SEGMENT 2 NOTES

El Camino Real Derby, Risen Star Stakes

By Dick Downey
Posted Feb. 17, 2019

El Camino Real Derby

We'll kick off our Segmnet NOTES with an easy one, the El Camino Real Derby. I didn't anticipate including this race, but we need the info on Anothertwistafate after his impressive front-running performance on synthetic. The effort earned him a 94 Beyer, something we don't exactly expect to see out of a 3-year-old based at Golden Gate.

Anothertwistafate ran the final three furlongs in under 38 seconds, which is something we look for in these races. However, he didn't click off 12-second furlongs. See Section 7 below for more about the latter subject.

As hard as it is for me to believe, Kingly also finished in under 38 seconds, although not nearly as impressively as the winnner. Like Anothertwistafate, he didn't run "12's".

While there wasn't much competition for Anothertwistafate in this race, the same can oftne be said about other Derby prep races, so let's give credit where credit is due. Besides, it's a 1 1/8-mile race, and we like to focus on that distance.

The fractions show that a key to the win was the fact that Anothertwistafate and Juan Hernandez took the lead in a quick 23.38, then slowed down the second quarter-mile considerably, getting that part of the race in 25.71, thus leaving some gas in the tank.

While Anothertwistafate might not ever get such a good setup again, keep reading. After the second quarter-mile, Anothertwistafate ran each part of the race faster than the preceding part. We don't see that very often. This was an outstanding performance.

Anothertwistafate

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.38 (first)
1/2 mile -- :49.09 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.78 (first)
1  mile -- 1:38.30 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.38 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.38
second 1/4 mile -- :25.71
third 1/4 mile -- :24.69
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.52
final 1/8 mile -- :12.08
final 3/8 mile -- :36.60


Kingly

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.40 (second)
1/2 mile -- :49.29 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.88 (second)
1  mile -- 1:39.50 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.78 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.40
second 1/4 mile -- :25.89
third 1/4 mile -- :24.59
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.62
final 1/8 mile -- :12.28
final 3/8 mile -- :37.90


Risen Star Stakes

Revised to delete statement that waiting on horses is a War of Will habit.

I was pretty excited when War of Will won the Risen Star. The Commish and I participate in a Triple Crown Fantasy League with some pretty sharp handicappers every year, and War of Will was our first-round pick. We scored some good points with his win, and we had already picked up points earlier in the day with Alwaysmining (selected for us by The Commish) in the Miracle Wood Stakes.

War of Will's fractions in the Risen Star are not quite as exciting. I don't put nearly as much stock in the 1 1/16-mile prep races as I do the 1 1/8-mile races, but one thing I check is whether the horse finished the final 5/16 mile in 30 seconds or less. War of Will, and Country House too, for that matter, didn't come close.  War of Will's Beyer Speed Figure, 92, was a decline from the 94 he earned in the LeComte.

We shouldn't leave this topic without acknowledging that War of Will waited on horses when he got the lead, per Tyler Gaffalione. This causes a slower finishing time, but more importantly, eventually it could cost him a race.

On the plus side, I am really impressed with the way War of Will can get right into a race. Gaffalione knows he has to be careful with that, because War of Will has a propensity to get too amped up if he's pushed early. With that said, War of Will's position at each call of the Risen Star is consistent with a running style that has won the Kentucky Derby every year for the last five years. See more about that subject in Section 7 below.

Country House lugged in in the latter stage of this race. His jockey, Luis Saez, claimed that it cost him the race. I don't buy that, but it's definitely a drawback.The fact that Country House finished second despite lugging in says something for his ability. The late running style he displayed isn't the type of style that's been winning the Kentucky Derby lately. The last time it worked was in 2013 when Orb came from far off the pace.

War of Will

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.11 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.86 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.20 (first)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:44.59 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.11
second 1/4 mile -- :23.75
third 1/4 mile -- :24.34
final 5/16 mile -- :32.39

Country House

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.61 (twelfth)
1/2 mile -- :49.31 (eleventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.05 (ninth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:45.04 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.61
second 1/4 mile -- :23.70
third 1/4 mile -- :23.74
final 5 /16 mile -- :31.99
 

SEGMENT 1 NOTES

2019 Triple Crown Fantasy League

By Dick Downey
Posted Feb. 14, 2019

Our Triple Crown Fantasy League format: Eight horses and one jockey per team, and the horse must be nominated to the Triple Crown to be eligible for points. A jockey can be picked in any round. A total of 14 riders and 112 horses are selected to the 14 teams. The draft is conducted on an up-and-down system so that the team that has the first pick in the first round has the last pick in the second round, and so on.

I was invited to play in this league about 15 years ago when John Asher told the guys about The Downey Profile. I've played in it every year since, and Greg "The Commish" Johnson has partnered with me many times now. It's a real honor to be part of it. I wish I could tell you the names of the players, because you'd recognize a lot of them, but their identities must remain private.

Without further ado, here is the order of selection, with footnotes showing that in a few cases the guys didn't do all their homework, or maybe they know something I don't.

*10 Cairo Cat was declared off the Derby Trail a few weeks ago.  82 King for a Day hasn't raced or put in a workout this year.  89 Coliseum was taken off the Derby Trail this week.  94 Kentucky Wildcat was hurt in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and was scheduled for surgery.  120 Call Paul wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown.

**33 Roadster has a sketchy-looking workout pattern and may or may not be close to a race. A risky pick, but one with upside potential. 103 Jaywalk is a filly, but the selector noted she is nominated to the Triple Crown.  104 Estihdaaf isn't nominated to the Triple Crown, but the selector said he hopes the horse will be a late nominee. However, the UAE Derby is set to run two days before the late nomination deadline.

Team Downey/Johhson drew the 4th first round pick pick in a hat shake. Unlike the process we use for race selections, Greg and I consult before and during  the draft. However, we make alternating, independent horse picks.

1 War of Will (D)
2 Gray Attempt (J)
3 Jose Ortiz (J/D)
4 Alwaysmining (J)
5 Boldor (D)
6 Olympic Runner (J)
7 King of Speed (D)
8 The Right Path (J)
9 Wicked Indeed (D)

 

SECTION 5. DOWNEY PROFILE RANKING POINTS EXPLANATION

The higher the number assigned to a horse, the better it is ranked.

We actually offer two Profiles for your consideration: (1) the Total Points Category, which is our base profile; and (2) the Performance Points Only Category.

The Total Points Category contains factors relevant to both Performance and Dosage, but performance factors account for 95% of the Total Points Profile weight, and the one Dosage-related factor we use only accounts for 5%.

For those who don’t like Dosage theory, our Performance Points Only Category eliminates the one Dosage factor that we use and contains only the factors relevant to Performance.

SECTION 6. PROFILE BUSTERS

In 15* of the last 46 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the Profile has gone bust--that is to say, none of our top four horses made it to the winner’s circle. We've identified some themes tying some of these winners together.

>In 2007, Hard Spun, Street Sense * and Curlin were our Profile Busters, and they made up the Kentucky Derby trifecta.

>In 2008, Big Brown was tied with three others for the leading number of Profile-busting factors. The other three were Adriano, Gayego and Recapturetheglory.

>In 2009, Mine That Bird was nowhere to be found as a Profile Buster. Dunkirk and Friesan Fire were the Profile Busters horses, but they did little and nothing in the Kentucky Derby.

>In 2010, Super Saver was one of two horses identified as Profile Busters. Downey used him in selections, and he won. The other one was Conveyance, whom we did not use in our selections for the Kentucky Derby.

>In 2011, Nehro was one of two horses identified as Profile Busters. He finished second. The other one was Midnight Interlude, whom we did not use in our selections for the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom, the winner, was in The Downey Profile Top 4.

>In 2012, one-two finishers I'll Have Another and Bodemeister were both Profile Buster horses. Dullahan, who ran third, was a Downey Profile Top 4 horse. I'll Have Another ranked sixth in The Downey Profile; Bodemeister was pretty far down the Downey Profile rankings but was the only horse with back-to-back triple-digit Beyers going into the Derby.

>In 2013, Profiile Buster Orb won the Kentucky Derby, but he was part of a crowded field -- four Profile Busters were identified that year.

>In 2014, California Chrome was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and won. He also was tied for the most Profile Buster points.

>In 2015, American Pharoah was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and won. He also had the most Profile Buster points.

>In 2016, Nyquist was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and he won. He didn't fit the Profile Buster Profile as well as two others.

>In 2017, Always Dreaming was our Profile Buster, and he was the pick to win the Kentucky Derby. The Downey Profile Top 4 horses hadn't been all that consistent, and Always Dreaming put in a super-impressive final workout before the Kentucky Derby.

>In 2018, Justify was in The Downey Profile Top 4 and won. He also had the most Profile Buster points along with Mendelssohn, who finished last.


* Street Sense, a Profile Buster, was ranked sixth in the 2007 Downey Profile and would have been in the Top Four but for a nose loss in the Blue Grass Stakes, a fact which we noted going into the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

2019 PROFILE BUSTERS HORSES, Profile Busters points
 

May 1 NOTE: Revised after defection of Omaha Beach, and inclusion of Bodexpress.

April 27 NOTE: We try to find the winner of the Kentucky Derby in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile, but sometimes a horse with the most factors in the Profile Buster Profile wins the race, such as Always Dreaming in 2017. Last year, Justify had more Profile Buster factors than any other contender, but he couldn't be our Profile Buster because he was part of the Top 4 of The Downey Profile. As of this post in 2019, the top horse in our Profile Buster Profile is not in The Downey Profile Top 4.

IMPROBABLE - 6
GAME WINNER - 5
MAXIMUM SECURITY - 5
OMAHA BEACH - 5
BODEXPRESS - 5
SPINOFF - 4
TAX - 4
CUTTING HUMOR - 3
ROADSTER - 3
TACITUS - 3
VEKOMA - 3
WIN WIN WIN - 3
BY MY STANDARDS - 2
GRAY MAGICIAN - 2
HAIKAL - 2
MASTER FENCER - 2
CODE OF HONOR - 1
COUNTRY HOUSE - 1
PLUS QUE PARFAIT - 1
WAR OF WILL - 1
LONG RANGE TODDY - 0


 

DETAILED FINDINGS

............................................

SECTION 13. DUAL QUALIFIERS

Because we are no longer using Dual Qualifier status as a factor, recent classes of Dual Qualifiers aren't included here.

More Information

To qualify, a 3-year-old must be ranked within 10 pounds of the highweight in the EFH and have a dosage index of 4.00 or less.

CLASS OF 2014 DUAL QUALIFIERS

Posted Jan. 29, 2015

Three male horses with the requisite weight (within 10 pounds of the high weight) in the EFH this year are not dual qualifiers due to having a dosage index over 4.00. American Pharoah has a dosage index of 4.33, just over the limit; Calculator has a dosage index of 5.57; and Faithful Creek has a dosage index of 7.00.. There are no fillies known by the public to be on the Derby Trail at this time.

The class of 2013 had 18 horses rated at 116 pounds or more. This year's crop has 23.

Here are this year's male Dual Qualifiers.

Complete listings below:

Experimental Free Handicap -- Males
Experimental Free Handicap -- Male Past Performances as of release date
Experimental Free Handicap -- Females
Experimental Free Handicap -- Female Past Performances as of release date

2013 Listings

Experimental Free Handicap -- Males
Experimental Free Handicap -- Male Past Performances as of release date
Experimental Free Handicap -- Fillies
Experimental Free Handicap -- Filly Past Performances as of release date