Kentucky Derby by the Speed Numbers

OR Who'll Reach the Eighth Pole First?

By Dick Downey

Posted April 27, 2024

In 64 of the last 69 (93 percent) runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader. Of those 69 winners, 50 of them (72 percent) were on the lead at the eighth pole. *Running positions at the eighth pole since the 2005 Kentucky Derby are shown below.

The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds only. It's the first time any of the horses have ever run that far in a race. In this industry, speed figures are calculated to identify how fast horses run, not by time, but by analysis. From six categories of speed figures published at Daily Racing Form, Brisnet and Equibase for 3-year-old races at 1 1/8 or 1 3/16 miles, we identified the horses with the best four figures in each category, then we added up how many times each of the horses were among the best.  **A chart showing all the horses' speed figures in all the categories is below.  ***A brief description of each the speed figure methods is below the chart.

There are six categories. The study finds horses with the four fastest numbers in each of those six categories. The four horses found the most are:

FIERCENESS - among the four fastest numbers in 5 categories

SIERRA LEONE - among the four fastest numbers in 5 categories

CATCHING FREEDOM - among the four fastest numbers in 3 categories

RESILIENCE - among the four fastest numbers in 3 categories

DETAILS

Top 4 Beyer Speed Figures: Fierceness 110 (Florida Derby); Sierra Leone 98 (Blue Grass Stakes); Catching Freedom 97 (Louisiana Derby); Honor Marie 96 (Louisiana Derby); Just a Touch 96 (Blue Grass Stakes)

Top 4 DRF combined speed/track variant figures: Endlessly 113 (El Camino Real Derby); Just Steel 107 (Arkansas Derby); Fierceness 105 (Florida Derby); Catching Freedom 103 (Louisiana Derby); Mystik Dan 103 (Arkansas Derby); Sierra Leone (Blue Grass Stakes)

Top 4 Brisnet Speed Figures: Fierceness 106 (Florida Derby); Resilience 104 (Wood Memorial); Society Man 102 (Wood Memorial); Sierra Leone 101 (Blue Grass Stakes)

Top 4 combined Brisnet E1-E2 figures: Just a Touch 215 (Blue Grass Stakes); Dornoch 200 (Blue Grass Stakes); Resilience 205 (Wood Memorial); Track Phantom 200 (Louisiana Derby)

Top 4 Brisnet late pace figures: Fierceness 113 (Florida Derby); Catching Freedom 101 (Louisiana Derby); Sierra Leone 99 (Risen Star); Resilience 98 (Wood Memorial)

Top 4 Equibase Speed Figures: Just Steel 112 (Arkansas Derby); Fierceness 110 (Florida Derby); Sierra Leone 107 (Blue Grass Stakes); Mystik Dan 106 (Arkansas Derby)

*DETAILS SINCE 2005

In 2023, Mage was second, two lengths off the pace, at the eighth pole. In 2022, Rich Strike was third, four lengths off the pace, at the eighth-pole. In 2021, Medina Spirit (since disqualified) and Mandaloun (who was second across the wire) were one-two at the marker, separated by a neck. In 2020, Authentic was ahead by a length. In 2019, Maximum Security also led by a length with a furlong left - but was disqualified. In 2018, Justify led by 2 1/2 lengths at the all-important eighth pole. In 2017, Always Dreaming led by three lengths at the eighth-pole. In 2016, Nyquist led by 2 1/2 lengths at the eighth pole. In 2015, American Pharoah had poked his head in front at that point of the race. In 2014, California Chrome led by five lengths at the furlong marker. In 2013, Orb was second, 2 1/2 lengths off the lead at the eighth pole. In 2012, I'll Have Another was second, three lengths off the lead with a furlong left. In 2011, Animal Kingdom didn't qualify for this stat, but he was about as close as you can get -- third by by 1 1/2 length at the eighth pole. In 2010, Super Saver was two lengths the best at the furlong marker. Mine That Bird was one length ahead at the eighth pole in 2009. Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, was 2 1/2 lengths ahead. In 2007, Street Sense was up by a length, and in 2006, Barbaro was four lengths in front at the eighth pole. The 2005 winner, Giacomo, was an exception to the rule. He was in sixth place at the eighth pole, almost three lengths off the lead held by Closing Argument at that moment.