Kentucky Derby by the Speed Numbers
OR Who'll Reach the Eighth Pole First?
By Dick Downey
Posted May 1, 2023
REVISED THE AFTEROON OF MAY 4, 2023 REMOVING PRACTICAL MOVE AND ADDING TAPIT TRICE
REVISED A SECOND TIME THE EVENING OF MAY 4, 2023 REMOVING TAPIT TRICE AND ADDING MANDARIN HERO
REVISED A THIRD TIME MAY 5, 2023 REMOVING SKINNER AFTER HIS SCRATCH AND ADDING BACK TAPIT TRICE
REVISED A FOURTH TIME THE MORNING OF MAY 6, 2023 FOLLOWING THE SCRATCH OF FORTE AND ADDING VERIFYING
In 63 of the last 68 (93 percent) runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader. Of those 68 winners, 50 of them (74 percent) were on the lead at the eighth pole. *Running positions at the eighth pole since the 2005 Kentucky Derby are shown below.
The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles for 3-year-olds only. It's the first time any of the horses have ever run that far in a race. In this industry, speed figures are calculated to identify how fast horses run, not by time, but by analysis. From six categories of speed figures published at Daily Racing Form, Brisnet and Equibase for 3-year-old races at 1 1/8 or 1 3/16 miles, we identified the horses with the best four figures in each category, then we added up how many times the horses were among the best. **A chart showing all the horses' speed figures in all the categories is below. The horses in the main body of the Derby field that rate the best using this method are:
ANGEL OF EMPIRE - among the four best figures in 5 of 6 categories
TWO PHIL'S - among the best in 4 of 6 categories
MANDARIN HERO - among the best in 3 of 6 categories
TAPIT TRICE - among the best in 3 of 6 categories
VERIFYING - among the best in 3 of 6 categories
DETAILS
(See below for how each set of speed figures works)
****REVISED May 4, 2023. With the scratch of Practical Move, the only category with a new Top 4 horse is the Equibase speed figure category: Tapit Trice and that moved him into the Top 4. But Mandarin Hero supplanted Tapit Trice later in the day when he drew in.
****Revised May 5, 2023. Skinner was scratched, and he was removed from the Top 4. Tapt Trice is now back in the Top 4.
Top 4 Beyer Speed Figures: Two Phil's 101 (Jeff Ruby Steaks); Mandarin Hero 100 (Santa Anita Derby); Tapit Trice 99 (Blue Grass Stakes); Verifying 99 (Blue Grass Stakes)
Top 4 DRF combined speed/track variant figures: Two Phi's 111 (Jeff Ruby Steaks); Angel of Empire 104 (Arkansas Derby); Mandarin Hero 103 (Santa Anita Derby); Mage101 (Florida Derby)
Top 4 Brisnet Figures: Two Phil's 107 (Jeff Ruby Steaks); Tapit Trice 102 (Blue Grass Stakes); Verifying 102 (Blue Grass Stakes); Angel of Empire 101 (Arkansas Derby)
Top 4 Combined Brisnet E1-E2 figures: Two Phil's 218 (Risen Star Stakes); Angel of Empire 208 (Risen Star Stakes); Sun Thunder 202 (Risen Star Stakes); Cyclone Mischief 196 (Florida Derby)
Top 4 Brisnet Late Pace figures: Disarm 110 (Louisiana Derby); Kingsbarns 109 (Louisiana Derby); Angel of Empire 108 (Arkansas Derby); Skinner 107 (Santa Anita Derby)
Top 4 Equibase Figures: Angel of Empire 106 (Arkansas Derby); Mandarin Hero 105 (Santa Anita Derby); Tapit Trice 103 (Blue Grass Stakes); Mage 102 (Florida Derby); Verifying 102 (Blue Grass Stakes)
*DETAILS SINCE 2005
In 2022, Rich Strike was third, four lengths off the pace, at the eighth-pole. In 2021, Medina Spirit (since disqualified) and Mandaloun (who was second across the wire) were one-two at the marker, separated by a neck. In 2020, Authentic was ahead by a length. In 2019, Maximum Security also led by a length with a furlong left - but was disqualified. In 2018, Justify led by 2 1/2 lengths at the all-important eighth pole. In 2017, Always Dreaming led by three lengths at the eighth-pole. In 2016, Nyquist led by 2 1/2 lengths at the eighth pole. In 2015, American Pharoah had poked his head in front at that point of the race. In 2014, California Chrome led by five lengths at the furlong marker. In 2013, Orb was second, 2 1/2 lengths off the lead at the eighth pole. In 2012, I'll Have Another was second, three lengths off the lead with a furlong left. In 2011, Animal Kingdom didn't qualify for this stat, but he was about as close as you can get -- third by by 1 1/2 length at the eighth pole. In 2010, Super Saver was two lengths the best at the furlong marker. Mine That Bird was one length ahead at the eighth pole in 2009. Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, was 2 1/2 lengths ahead. In 2007, Street Sense was up by a length, and in 2006, Barbaro was four lengths in front at the eighth pole. The 2005 winner, Giacomo, was an exception to the rule. He was in sixth place at the eighth pole, almost three lengths off the lead held by Closing Argument at that moment.
**2023 Kentucky Derby Chart
| Horse | 9F/9.5F age 3 | Finish | Winning Time | DRF Beyer | DRF Speed-Track Variant | Brisnet Fig | Brisnet E1-E2 | Brisnet LP | Equibase Fig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angel of Empire | Arkansas Derby | 1st by 4 1/4 | 1:49.68 | 94 | 91-13 | 101 | 88-89 | 108 | 106 |
| Angel of Empire | Risen Star | 1st by 1 | 1:51.47 | 89 | 81-16 | 97 | 100-108 | 82 | 96 |
| Confidence Game | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Continuar | UAE Derby | 3d by 10 | 1:55.81 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Cyclone Mischief | Florida Derby | 3d by 3 | 1:49.37 | 91 | 90-09 | 97 | 94-102 | 88 | 99 |
| Derma Sotogake | UAE Derby | 1st by 5 1/2 | 1:55.81 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Disarm | Louisiana Derby | 2d by 3 1/2 | 1:57.33 | 90 | 81-13 | 94 | 71-74 | 110 | 95 |
| Forte | Florida Derby | 1st by 1 | 1:49.37 | 95 | 93-09 | 100 | 90-99 | 96 | 104 |
| Hit Show | Wood Memorial | 2d by nose | 1:51.17 | 93 | 84-17 | 99 | 85-99 | 95 | 99 |
| Hit Show | Withers | 1st by 5 12 | 1:54.71 | 91 | 66-30 | 96 | 91-98 | 90 | 93 |
| Jace's Road | Louisiana Derby | 3d by 6 1/2 | 1:57.33 | 85 | 79-13 | 91 | 76-80 | 98 | 91 |
| Kingsbarns | Louisiana Derby | 1st by 3 1/2 | 1:57.33 | 95 | 85-13 | 98 | 78-82 | 109 | 100 |
| Lord Miles | Wood Memorial | 1st by nose | 1:51.17 | 93 | 84-17 | 99 | 88-99 | 95 | 100 |
| Mage | Florida Derby | 2d by 1 | 1:49.37 | 94 | 92-09 | 99 | 88-97 | 96 | 102 |
| Major Dude | Jeff Ruby | 2d by 5 1/2 | 1:49.03 | 91 | 93-13 | 101 | 91-103 | 95 | 89 |
| Mandarin Hero | Santa Anita Derby | 2d by nose | 1:48.69 | 100 | 97-06 | 100 | 92-89 | 106 | 105 |
| Practical Move | Santa Anita Derby | 1st by nose | 1:48.69 | 100 | 97-06 | 100 | 95-93 | 103 | 105 |
| Raise Cain | Blue Grass | 5th by 6 3/4 | 1:50.00 | 89 | 82-11 | 94 | 78-91 | 95 | 93 |
| Reincarnate | Arkansas Derby | 3d by 4 3/4 | 1:49.68 | 86 | 86-13 | 96 | 96-93 | 95 | 99 |
| Rocket Can | Arkansas Derby | 4th by 4 3/4 | 1:49.68 | 86 | 86-13 | 96 | 93-91 | 97 | 98 |
| Skinner | Santa Anita Derby | 3d by 1/2 | 1:48.69 | 99 | 96-06 | 99 | 91-87 | 107 | 104 |
| Sun Thunder | Blue Grass | 4th by 6 1/2 | 1:50.00 | 89 | 82-11 | 95 | 80-92 | 94 | 93 |
| Sun Thunder | Louisiana Derby | 5th by 8 1/2 | 1:57.33 | 82 | 76-13 | 89 | 68-70 | 104 | 88 |
| Sun Thunder | Risen Star | 2d by 1 | 1:51.47 | 89 | 80-16 | 96 | 97-105 | 83 | 94 |
| Tapit Trice | Blue Grass | 1st by neck | 1:50.00 | 99 | 89-11 | 102 | 87-97 | 102 | 103 |
| Two Phil's | Jeff Ruby | 1st by 5 1/4 | 1:49.03 | 101 | 98-13 | 107 | 91-102 | 106 | 97 |
| Two Phil's | Risen Star | 3d by 2 3/4 | 1:51.47 | 86 | 78-16 | 94 | 105-113 | 71 | 92 |
| Verifying | Blue Grass | 2d by neck | 1:50.00 | 99 | 89-11 | 102 | 90-99 | 99 | 102 |
Beyer Speed Figures; Speed Rating and Track Variant
Beyer Speed Figures are a well-known handicapping staple at Daily Racing Form. A single number is designed to express how fast a horse ran in a race.
These figures are complemented by the publication's pure speed rating and track variant figures, explained succinctly as follows.
The speed rating is a comparison of a horse's final time with the best time at the distance at that track in the last three years. The best time is given a rating of 100. One point is deducted for each fifth of a second by which a horse fails to equal that time.
To compute the track variant, the speed ratings of all winners in each type of race on a card are added together and an average is computed, which is deducted from 100. The lower the track variant, the faster the track, or the better the overall quality of competition that day, according to Daily Racing Form. Conversely, a higher track variant almost always means a slower track.
Brisnet Speed Figures
Brisnet has its own formula for calculating speed and like Beyer figures, a single number is designed to express how fast a horse ran in a race.
Brisnet speed figures are complemented by pace figures to evaluate horses' speed in the early and late stages of races, called E1, E2 and LP. E1 is the pace rating of the horse from the start to the first call of the race, usually a half-mile in longer races, and E2 is the pace rating of the horse from the start to the second call, usually three-quarters of a mile. LP is the pace rating of the horse from the second call to the finish of the race.
Equibase Speed Figures
Since 1991 Equibase has been the official repository for statistics in Thoroughbred racing in North America. This company also has its own formula for assessing speed expressed in a single number.
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