12-SECOND FURLONGS IN DERBY PREP RACES GOING NINE FURLONGS OR LONGER

We examine whether horses ran within one second of averaging 12 seconds per furlong at calls of races going nine furlongs or longer. History teaches us that such horses can run well in the Kentucky Derby.

APRIL 16 NOTE:  Added Owen Almighty to the "YES" list.

YES

Feb. 15 Risen Star

Winner Magnitude is off the Derby Trail. Second finisher Chunk of Gold hit the mark first three calls. Third finisher Built hit the mark first four calls.

March 22 Louisiana Derby (9 1/2 furlongs)

Winner Tiztastic hit the first four marks in 24.79, 47.74, 1:11.83, 1:36.47. His final time was 1:56.20.

Second finisher Chunk of Gold also hit the first four marks with splits of 23.59, 47.34, 1:11.43, 1:36.57. His final time was 1:56.65.

Fifth finisher Built hit the mark at the first four calls but had nothing the final eighth mile.

Not applicable: After the race, trainer Cox said third and fourth finishers John Hancock won't make the Derby and will regroup.

March 22 Jeff Ruby Steaks (synthetic)

Also-ran California Burrito hit the first three marks, then finished slowly. 23.07, 48.13, 1:12.87, 1:37.99, final time 1:51.79.

March 29 Florida Derby

Winner Tappan Street hit the mark four times: 24.14, 47.96, 1:12.21, 1:36.60 with a final time of 1:49.27.

Runner-up Sovereignty gets credit for hitting the mark four times even though the fourth split was off, but it was off only 1/100 of a second: 24.37, 47.97, 1:12.36, 1:37.01  with a final time of 1:49.48.

Third finisher Neoequos hit the mark four times: 23.68, 47.35, 1:11.76, 1:36.60  with a final time of 1:49.93

Fourth finisher Madaket Road hit the mark four times but faded badly: 23.37, 47.22, 1:11.61, 1:36.59 with a final time of 1:50.17.

Fifth finisher Disruptor got off to a bad start, ceding ground. Still, he hit the mark three times; however, the early trouble probably sapped his energy a bit judging from his slow finish. 24.83, 48.22, 1:12.12, 1:37.74. Final time 1:51.02.

March 29 Arkansas Derby

Winner Sandman hit the mark three times. Knowing that he doesn't display early speed, I thought his initial splits would be a few lengths slower than this: 23.84, 47.16, 1:11.28. He got the mile in 1:37.11 and the final time was 1:50.08

Second finisher Publisher hit the mark three times despite the fact he was last in the early going: 24.25, 47.61, 1:11.57. His mile was timed in 1:37.44 and is final time was 1:50.50.

April 5 Wood Memorial

From the perspective of 12-second furlongs, this was the strongest Wood Memorial in a good while.

Rodriguez, on the lead with Captain Cook attending his pace, hit the mark at all five calls, the first horse to do so this year: 23.31, 47.44, 1:11.25, 1:35.68, 1:48.15. It detracts a bit from his performance that front speed was holding this day Aqueduct, but it was still an outstanding performance.

Grande became the second horse to hit the mark at all five calls: 23.88, 47.73, 1:11.52, 1:36.25, 1:48.76. With not much hype about him after the race, Grande's race has the earmarks of an underrated performance. Grande was shuffled back early, had to go wide up the backstretch while making a big middle move to gain contention, was wide around the far turn, was unnecessarily wide leaving the turn, and with all that he still overcame the track's speed bias to finish second in only his third career start. Let's see how much it took out of him, if anything.

At this juncture it appears Passion Rules doesn't have enough Derby points, but he also ran a strong race using the 12-second-per-furlong metric: 23.85, 47.70, 1:11.68, 1:36.44, 1:49.07.

Captain Cook also has good marks in this category, but he couldn't keep up in the final furlong: 23.45, 47.49, 1:11.37, 1:36.22, 1:49.31

April 5 Santa Anita Derby

I am giving Baeza credit for hitting the mark at three calls because he was only 7/100 of a second off at the fourth call: 22.75, 47.30, 1:11.55, 1:37.07, 1:49.70. Whether he has enough points to make the Derby is anyone's guess at this point.

See below for comments on Journalism.

April 8 Toyota Blue Grass

Burnham Square hit three of the marks but like everything else in the Toyota Blue Grass he noticeably slowed down after entering the final turn: 24.59, 48.32, 1:12.56, 1:38.25, 1:51.33.

River Thames hit the mark at the first three calls but was unable to hold off Burnham Square: 23.60, 47.54, 1:12.36, 1:38.08, 1:51.49.

Owen Almighty hit the mark at the first three calls but faded badly in the stretch to finish in a dead heat for sixth and last: 23.48, 47.58, 1:12.21, 1:38.06, 1:52.11.

YES WITH AN ASTERISK

We heard pre-race hype from interests vested in promoting the Santa Anita Derby as the best Kentucky Derby prep of the year even with only five starters. The hype collapsed when both Baffert entries performed like 20-1 shots. To his credit, Journalism overcame difficulty and met expectations to win his fourth straight race. He is a legit horse and a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite. However, in my opinion the Santa Anita Derby clearly was not the top Derby prep of 2025 even if Journalism is the best horse. It was a five horse race in which two of the top three favorites ran poorly.

We hear this every year. What did he beat? When I ask myself this question I try to always remind myself the purpose of the preps is to separate the wheat from the chaff, and that was achieved in this Santa Anita Derby.

And now to the 12-second furlongs. This goes against the grain of his anticipated Kentucky Derby favoritism, but Journalism hit the mark only twice. He was under the mark at the first call and over the mark the last two calls: 22.57, 47.35, 1:11.97, 1:37.24, 1:49.56. However, in my opinion Journalism would have hit the mark at least one of the two final calls, if not both, had he not run into trouble. I feel very confident his time at one mile would have been 1:37 or better in the absence of trouble.

This doesn't mean Journalism or other closers won't run into trouble in the Kentucky Derby. I'm "just sayin" Journalism gets a YES in my book.


NO

Feb. 1 Withers

Neither the winner Captain Cook nor any of the other starters qualified for a yes. Capatain Cook hit the mark only at the first call: 24.35, 49.34, 1:13.83, 1:39.22, 1:51.83.

March 15 Virginia Derby (one turn)

 A strange race. American Promise hit the mark the first call --23.27 -- but he ran SUB-12 seconds per furlong the remaining calls in this one-turn race -- 45.27, 1:08.39, 1:33.01, 1:46.41. 

We have a similar reading on second finisher Render Judgment: 23.14, 45.41, 1:08.88, 1:33.93 with a final time of 1:47.70.

And the same with third finisher Omaha Omaha: 24.16, 46.09, 1:09.52, 1:34.52 with a final time of 1:47.80.

March 22 Louisiana Derby (9 1/2 furlongs)

Not applicable:  After the race, trainer Cox said third finisher Instant Replay and fourrh finisher John Hancock won't make the Derby and will regroup.

March 22 Jeff Ruby Steaks

Flying Gambit hit only the first two marks: 24.69, 48.90, 1:13.89, 1:38.19. Final time 1:50.10.

Second finisher Flying Mohawk also hit only the first two marks: 24.22, 48.63, 1:13.48, 1:38.16, 1:50.70.

Third finisher Maximum Promise also hit only the first two marks: 23.81, 48.47, 1:13.33, 1:38.17, 1:50.82. He is out of consideration for the Derby.

Poster trained at Turfway all winter but also only hit the first two marks: 23.72, 48.34, 1:13.20, 1:38.35, 1:51.05.

March 29 Fukuryu Stakes

We don't have complete splits for this race but Luxor Cafe could not have hit the mark at three calls. His time after six furlongs was 1:15.80, we interpolate his one-mile time at 1:37.90, and his final time was 1:52.10. The track was rated good.

March 29 Arkansas Derby

Coal Battle hit the mark only twice. Before the race he was too much on the muscle, and he went too fast early. He could improve off this in the Kentucky Derby if he is able to settle down before the race: 23.28, 46.76, 1:11.07, 1:37.56, 1:51.26.

April 5 Santa Anita Derby

See above for comments on Journalism.

Citizen Bull hit the mark only twice: 22.41, 47.14, 1:11.42, 1:37.26, 1:51.33. He reportedly came out of the race in good shape but he looks more and more like a "needs-the-lead" type off this race.

Westwood doesn't have the points to make the Derby.

Barnes will not make the Kentucky Derby. I doubt we will see him race again any time soon.

April 5 UAE Derby

The splits in the UAE Derby are difficult to gauge because there is no runup to the timer. The timer starts when the gate opens. A typical runup is 34 feet, which is used in the Kentucky Derby.

There are no official fractional times at Emirates Racing's website. Byron King provided me sectional times for Admire Daytona supplied to atheraces.com by Total Performance Data: 8.84, 10.58, 11.22, 12.13, 12.35, 12.89, 12.63, 12.28, 12.52 and 13.70. The absence of a runup to the start at Meydan accounts for the slow 8.84 seconds for the first 100 meters, which is 328.08 feet compared to 330 feet in 1/16 of a mile.

Ignoring the slight differential in distance, the fractional times are: 3/16 mile in 19.42 (12 seconds per furlong for 3/16 mile would be 18 seconds), the first 7/16 in 42.77 (12 seconds per furlong would be 42), the first 11/16 in 1:08.01 (12 seconds per furlong would be 1:06), the first 15/16 in 1:32.92 (12 seconds per furlong would be 1:30), and the full 19/16 in 1:59.14 (12 seconds per furlong would be 1:54).

I stop-actioned the race video in order to get quarter-mile times from the inception of the race. While not exact I'm within a hundredths of a second in getting Admire Daytona in 25.00, 49.00, 1:14.40, 1:39.00, 1:59.14.

But how do we deal with the lack of a runup. Should we deduct about two seconds from each split?

A stat posted on-screen just after the race shows the final quarter-mile was run in 26.22. Using my stop-action timing, the last 3/16 was run in about 20.14.

April 8 Blue Grass Stakes

Pacesetter East Avenue set the pace and hit the mark at one call and one close enough to get credit for two: 22.95, 46.95, 1:11.96, 1:37.89, 1:51.34. He was beaten a nose by Burnham Square.