Kentucky Derby and Horse Racing at The Downey Profile®
The Downey Profile
A Seasonal Website
About the Kentucky Derby

Order the 2025 Kentucky Derby Subscription Page here.
View the 2025 Kentucky Derby Subscription Page here.
SUBSCRIBER NOTES/UPDATES
April 25: Likely workouts Saturday at CD: American Promise, Burnham Square, East Avenue, Final Gambit, Journalism, Rodriguez, Sovereignty, Tappan Street
April 25: Updated Section 5 (Derby by the Speed Numbers) and Section 6 (Downey Profile Rankings) after the defection of Built.
April 25: Built will not be entered in the Kentucky Derby. Pat Day Mile instead. Next in line are Render Judgment, Baeza and California Burrito.
April 25: Flying Mohawk finished his major Derby work at Churchill Downs. Chunk of Gold breezed at Turfway Park, and Grande breezed at Keeneland. All were in company. Baeza has arrived at CD.
April 24: Workouts at CD today by Built, Owen Almighty. Neoequos breezed at Gulfstream Park. Citizen Bull scheduled to arrive. Workout videos up to date.
April 23: Sandman put in his final Derby breeze this morning at CD. AT SA Citizen Bull worked seven furlongs. Schedule updates, etc.
April 22: Section 5, Derby by the Speed Numbers, is posted. My findings using comparative speed figures are detailed but preliminary and will be updated.
April 22: Coal Battle and Admire Daytona breezed this morning at Churchill Downs. Notes about other horses. Rodriguez arrived very late this afternoon, two days early. Section 2.
April 18: Please review my April 18 NOTE about Journalism on the main Subscription Page between Sections 3 and 4. -DD
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Kentucky Derby Works Shows
April 25 April 24 April 23 April 22 April 21 April 20 April 19
April 18
Kentucky Derby and Oaks Post Position Draw
The post position draws for both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks will be held during opening night of the Churchill Downs meet on Saturday, April 26 from 7:15-7:45 pm ET between Races 5 and 6.
Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard through April 25
Videos from Kentucky HBPA/Jennie Rees
Bob Baffert arrives at Churchill Downs for the first time since 2021. Says he expects a totally different race from Citizen Bull.
Aron Wellman after Built's defection from the Derby; discusses Journalism. The best interest of the horse is "our primary motive."
Michael McCarthy after Journalism's first gallop at CD "No fake news here."
Casse happy after April 23 workout Wasn't sure if Sandman knew he was working at first and he still looked great.
April 23 Steve Asmussen talks about Tiztastic and Publisher He is cool, but laid-back attitude has cost Publisher...
Lonnie Briley after Coal Battle's April 22 workout "He just kept climbing the ladder, so we thought we'd give him a chance."
D. Wayne Lukas after American Promise galloped on April 22 "He looks just like Justify."
Ian Wilkes just after Burnham Square's April 19 breeze "It's a damn good field."
Brian Hernandez, Jr. happy with Burnham Square He's "on the upswing."
Brendan Walsh after East Avenue's April 19 workout "He's where he should be right now."
Bill Mott on April 18, the day before Sovereign breezed at Churchill Downs Derby horses change a lot this time of year.
Steve Asmussen after Tiztastic and Publisher workouts April 12: "That's the best he's ever looked at Churchill Downs."
Whit Beckman on Jeff Ruby runner-up Flying Mohawk. Longshots can win the Derby."
Ian Wilkes, Brian Hernandez, Jr. after winning the Toyota Blue Grass with Burnham Square
Brendan Walsh on Blue Grass runner-up East Avenue; Godolphin director of bloodstock Michael Banahan
Five Late Triple Crown Nominations
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6
April 12 Stakes Summary
The Road to the Kentucky Derby is once again at an end with the running of the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes. Going two turns for the first time Gosger got the win....
April 8 Stakes Summary
Burnham Square sat off fairly quick early fractions, came wide into the stretch and overtook East Avenue in the shadow of the wire to win the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes....
Journalism stamped his credentials as the probable Kentucky Derby favorite with a troubled come-from-behind victory as the even-money favorite. It was his fourth straight win.... West coast invader Rodriguez led all the way to win the 100th running of the G2 Wood Memorial by 3 1/2 lengths under Mike Smith in a swift 1:48.15.... Admire Daytona edged Heart of Honor by a nose in a head bob to win the 1 3/16-mile G2 UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse.... Comprehensive post-race quotes....
March 29 Stakes Summaries
Sandman got a good setup for his late kick, and he took full advantage to win the G1 Arkansas Derby at 7-2 odds after odds-on favorite Cornucopian (4-5) and two-time stakes winner Speed King (15-1) rumbled through taxing opening fractions.... Tappan Street (2-1 second choice) broke alertly, got into good early and intermediate position, and continued a good trip to win the G1 Curln Florida Derby over favored Sovereignty.... Luxor Cafe, favored at 3-10 (1.3 as expressed on the board in Japan), flew down the lane to dominate an 11-horse field in the nine-furlong Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse in Japan. He has been invited to the Kentucky Derby, and a response is expected mid-week.....
March 22 Stakes Summaries
Tiztastic, ridden by Joel Rosario for trainer Steve Asmussen, came on strong in the stretch to win the G2 Louisiana Derby by 2 1/4 lengths at 7-1 odds.... Juddmonte Farm's homebred, the aptly named Final Gambit, closed from 12th and last in the early going and flew past foes down the lane to win the G2 Jeff Ruby Steaks going away by 3 1/2 lengths....
March 15 Stake Summary
D. Wayne Lukas is back in the Kentucky Derby picture after American Promise upset the Virginia Derby as favored Getaway Car faded to fourth....
Owen Almighty (5-2) would not be denied as he led at all calls to win the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby by open lengths in 1:42.30 under Irad Ortiz, Jr., who's ridden him in five of six career starts....
March 1 Stakes Summaries
Sovereignty (3-1) came from back of the pack to nail River Thames (2-1) on the wire in the G2 Fountain of Youth, timed in 1:43.12 for 1 1/16 mile.... At 3-1 odds Journalism pulled a mild upset defeating 2-5 favorite Barnes and two other Bob Baffert trainees in the DK Horse San Felipe Stakes going 1 1/16 mile at Santa Anita.... At 17-1 odds, Flood Zone upset the one-mile G3 Gotham in his first start for trainer Brad Cox under Reylu Gutierrez....
Feb. 26 Stake Summary
The winner of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes at Kempton Park, Godolphin's Opera Ballo, isn't nominated to the Triple Crown, and neither were the other five entries, but he proved to be in a class by himself....
Coal Battle upended the Rebel at 11-1 odds after a patient ride by Juan Vargas. Madaket Road (5-1) broke on top of the 13-horse field under Irad Ortiz, Jr. and motored through splits of 22.47, 45.72 and 1:10.94.... Overcoming a slow start in the Hyacinth Stakes, odds-on favorite Luxor Cafe circled the field en route to a half-length victory over Promised Gene at Tokyo Racecourse....
Feb. 22 Stakes Summaries
Golden Vekoma ran down pacesetter Shin Forever to win the $1.5 million G3 Saudi Derby in 1:38.19 despite not timely changing leads in the stretch.... California Burrito led most of the way to win the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park in a languid 1:45.98 on the synthetic.... Barbadian Runner ran down early leaders Crab Daddy and Pay Billy in the stretch to win the one-turn, one-mile Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel by a head....
A head bob decided the $400,000 Sunland Derby as Getaway Car edged Caldera for the win while the pair hit the wire almost inseparable....
Feb. 15 Stake Summary
From the far outside post in a field of 12 Magnitude shot to the lead under Ben Curtis and romped by 9 3/4 lengths in the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at 43-1 odds. The second finisher was also 43-1....
Feb. 8 Stake Summary -- Feb. 10 NOTE: Winning Equibase figure revised.
In only his second start and first at two turns, John Hancock won the Sam F. Davis Stakes with a sparkling time of 1:42.27, a new stakes record. Favored at 5-2 under Flavien Prat, the winner broke well....
Feb. 1 Stakes Summaries
Favored Citizen Bull won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in a hand ride, a paid workout.... Burnham Square stalked the leaders and made a strong move into the stretch, as did Tappan Street, to finish one-two in the Holy Bull Stakes.... Captain Cook bided his time behind moderate fractions before bounding to the lead and winning as the 7-5 favorite in the Withers.... Gate to Wire went off at 13-1 for trainer Todd Pletcher and was much the best in the Swale....
Southwest Stakes: At 2-1 Gaming broke from post 1 a step slow, was checked twice early, and never got involved finishing 8th of 9 while winner Speed King and Rafael Bejarano led throughout after breaking from the outside post. Favored Patch Adams fourth.... Speed King will remain on the Derby Trail at Oaklawn....
January 18 Stakes Summaries
His time wasn't very fast, but Disco Time was just in time to win the LeComte Stakes.... In the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway, Baby Max got an outstanding trip and took advantage of it.
The seven furlong local prep for the Sam F. Davis Stakes was ruined for one-length winner Owen Almighty after stewards declared an inquiry in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
The Springboard Mile winner Coal Battle easily prevailed in the Smarty Jones Stakes on a contested early pace under Juan Vargas.... Cyclone State made the front early and stayed there to win the one-mile Jerome Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths.... Not a Kentucky Derby points race but an important one nevertheless as highly-touted Barnes won the San Vicente Stakes for the Baffert stable at even money.... Kicking off the Florida Derby series, Guns Loaded got up late for the win at 6-5 under Luis Saez in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.... Click headline for details and post-race quotes.
2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby
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April 1, 2025 Announcement
Friends and Colleagues: This year marks my 24th Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile. To TDP subscribers, I cannot thank you enough for your friendly, supportive relationship with me over the years.
I will offer a Subscription Page in a new format this year. My Downey Profile model helped me pick the winner of six consecutive runnings of the Kentucky Derby from 2014 through 2019. Since then my model has not performed well.* Seems like my top pick likes to run third.
My new presentation will continue to include reference to The Downey Profile, but I won't be tied to it. I will analyze information about 12-second furlongs, how fast horses finish the longer preps, the all-important gallop-outs, comparative top four speed figures, arrival times at Churchill Downs with barn numbers, workouts, buzz, physical presentation, and more.
The page will be ready to open sometime next week. Thank you again, and good luck!
--Dick Downey, April 1, 2025
PS: This is not an April Fool's message!
*First there was the covid year when the Derby was run in September (2020); followed by Medina Spirit being disqualified for having an illegal drug in his system (2021); the highly improbable Rich Strike, who never won again (2022); and Mage and Mystik Dan (2023, 2024), neither of whom fit the Profile and neither of whom has won again, although Mystik Dan still has a chance.
HOW WE'VE FARED IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY
In 2024, once again the winner, Mystik Dan, did not fit our Profile. I emailed subscribers and observed The Downey Profile was not meeting expectation and may have run its course. My selection, Fierceness, was well-positioned at the top of the stretch but he had nothing to give in the last quarter-mile.
In 2023, our top pick was a horse I had in a future wager at 112-1 that turned out to be the favorite, Angel of Empire. He finished a surging third. The winner was Mage. Although we encouraged using him in exotic wagers, he did not fit our Profile and was not a Profile Buster.
1. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (objective pick) (third)
2. KINGSBARNS (subjective pick) (fourteenth)
3. TWO PHIL'S (objective pick) (second)
4. TAPIT TRICE (objective pick) (seventh)
Longshots
DISARM (subjective pick) (fourth)
ROCKET CAN (subjective pick) (ninth)
In 2022, for the second consecutive year, the winner was not in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor was he a Profile Buster. Rich
Strike won at 80-1 odds. Dick's Picks were:
1 ZANDON (third at 6-1)
2 CROWN PRIDE
(contested fast pace, 13th at 17-1)
3 TAIBA (12th at 5-1)
4 EPICENTER (second at 4-1)
5 MESSIER (15th at 7-1)
6 WHITE ABARRIO (16th at 15-1)
In 2021, the Kentucky Derby winner was neither in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor a Profile Buster for the first time since 2009.
Downey had him in the fifth slot among six selections.
1. HOT ROD CHARLIE (third at 5-1)
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (fourth at 5-2)
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD (seventeenth at 9-2)
KING FURY -SCRATCHED
4. KNOWN AGENDA (ninth at 9-1))
5. MEDINA SPIRIT (first at 12-1)*
6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (tenth at 10-1)
*Disqualified later: medication infraction
HARD TO LEAVE OUT
MIDNIGHT BOURBON
(sixth at 13-1)
LONGSHOTS I LIKE MOST (in post position order)
MANDALOUN (second at 28-1)**
O BESOS (fifth at 41-1)
**Moved up to first after Medina Spirit DQ
In 2020, Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page failed to win for the first time in seven years. Three of Downey's four picks finished in the top four, including winner Authentic. The top two finishers were among The Downey
Profile's Top 4 rankings, as was fourth finisher Honor A. P.
1. TIZ THE LAW (second)
2. HONOR A. P. (fourth)
THOUSAND WORDS (SCR)
3. Ny TRAFFIC (eighth)
4. AUTHENTIC (first)
Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby in 2019. It was the sixth straight year his top pick won, and Maximum Security was among The Downey Profile's Top 4 horses, as was Tacitus. Four of Downey's top five picks finished in the top five.
1. MAXIMUM SECURITY (first - DQ'd by stewards to 17th)
2. TACITUS (fourth, moved up to third)
3. IMPROBABLE (fifth, moved up to fourth
4. VEKOMA (thirteenth, moved up to twelfth)
5. CODE OF HONOR (third, moved up to second)
Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby for the fifth straight year in 2018. Justify was among The Downey Profile Top 4 horses, as were second and third finishers Good Magic and Audible.
The final Kentucky Derby workout by Justify was impressive, and that helped lead Downey to pick him right on top. Good Magic was in Downey's second spot for the cold exacta.
1. JUSTIFY (first)
2. GOOD MAGIC (second)
3. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
4. HOFBURG (seventh)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
6. BOLT D'ORO (twelfth)
Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for his Kentucky Derby subscribers for the fourth straight year in 2017.
Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4. Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)
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