April 1, 2025 Announcement

Friends and Colleagues: This year marks my 24th Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile. To TDP subscribers, I cannot thank you enough for your friendly, supportive relationship with me over the years.

I will offer a Subscription Page in a new format this year. My Downey Profile model  helped me pick the winner of six consecutive runnings of the Kentucky Derby from 2014 through 2019. Since then my model has not performed well.* Seems like my top pick likes to run third.

My 2025 presentation will continue to include reference to The Downey Profile, but I won't be tied to it. I will analyze information about 12-second furlongs, how fast horses finish the longer preps, the all-important gallop-outs, comparative top four speed figures, arrival times at Churchill Downs with barn numbers, workouts, buzz, physical presentation, and more.

The page will be ready to open sometime next week. Thank you again, and good luck!

--Dick Downey, April 1, 2025

PS: This is not an April Fool's message!

*First there was the covid year when the Derby was run in September (2020); followed by Medina Spirit being disqualified for having an illegal drug in his system (2021); the highly improbable Rich Strike, who never won again (2022); and Mage and Mystik Dan (2023, 2024), neither of whom fit the Profile and neither of whom has won again, although Mystik Dan still has a chance.

HOW WE'VE FARED IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Dick's Picks for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

I selected SANDMAN in an attempt to upset JOURNALISM. I thought the son of American Pharoah, LUXOR CAFE, could very well get it done, but he got banged around during the race. I thought BAEZA might outlast Luxor Cafe, and he certainly did. COAL BATTLE looked live, and I was rooting for him and trainer Briley, but he was hit hard twice.
#17 SANDMAN - outrun
#8 JOURNALISM - second
#7 LUXOR CAFE - banged up during the race

#21 BAEZA - third
#16 COAL BATTLE - banged up during the race

PLAY ON THE BOTTOM
#18 SOVEREIGNTY (winner), #3 FINAL GAMBIT (fourth), #9 BURNHAM SQUARE, #1 CITIZEN BULL, #13 PUBLISHER, #14 TIZTASTIC

In 2024, once again the winner, Mystik Dan, did not fit our Profile. I emailed subscribers and observed The Downey Profile was not meeting expectation and may have run its course. My selection, Fierceness, was well-positioned at the top of the stretch but he had nothing to give in the last quarter-mile.

In 2023, our top pick was a horse I had in a future wager at 112-1 that turned out to be the favorite, Angel of Empire. He finished a surging third. The winner was Mage. Although we encouraged using him in exotic wagers, he did not fit our Profile and was not a Profile Buster.

1. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (objective pick) (third)
2. KINGSBARNS (subjective pick) (fourteenth)
3. TWO PHIL'S (objective pick) (second)
4. TAPIT TRICE (objective pick) (seventh)

Longshots
DISARM (subjective pick) (fourth)
ROCKET CAN (subjective pick) (ninth)

In 2022, for the second consecutive year, the winner was not in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor was he a Profile Buster. Rich

Strike won at 80-1 odds. Dick's Picks were:

1 ZANDON (third at 6-1)
2 CROWN PRIDE (contested fast pace, 13th at 17-1)
3 TAIBA (12th at 5-1)
4 EPICENTER (second at 4-1)
5 MESSIER (15th at 7-1)
6 WHITE ABARRIO (16th at 15-1)

In 2021, the Kentucky Derby winner was neither in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor a Profile Buster for the first time since 2009.   Downey had him in  the fifth slot among six selections.

1. HOT ROD CHARLIE (third at 5-1)
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (fourth at 5-2)
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD (seventeenth at 9-2)
KING FURY -SCRATCHED
4. KNOWN AGENDA (ninth at 9-1))
5. MEDINA SPIRIT (first at 12-1)*

6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (tenth at 10-1)

*Disqualified later: medication infraction

HARD TO LEAVE OUT

MIDNIGHT BOURBON (sixth at 13-1)
LONGSHOTS I LIKE MOST (in post position order)
MANDALOUN (second at 28-1)**
O BESOS (fifth at 41-1)

**Moved up to first after Medina Spirit DQ

In 2020, Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page failed to win for the first time in seven years. Three of Downey's four picks finished in the top four, including winner Authentic. The top two finishers were among The Downey

Profile's Top 4 rankings, as was fourth finisher Honor A. P.

1. TIZ THE LAW (second)
2. HONOR A. P. (fourth)
 THOUSAND WORDS (SCR)
3. Ny TRAFFIC (eighth)
4. AUTHENTIC (first)

Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won  the Kentucky Derby in 2019.  It was the sixth straight year his top pick won, and Maximum Security was among The Downey Profile's Top 4 horses, as was Tacitus. Four of Downey's top five picks finished in the top five.

1. MAXIMUM SECURITY (first - DQ'd by stewards to 17th)
2. TACITUS (fourth, moved up to third)
3. IMPROBABLE (fifth, moved up to fourth
4. VEKOMA (thirteenth, moved up to twelfth)
5. CODE OF HONOR (third, moved up to second)

Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby for the fifth straight year in 2018. Justify was among The Downey Profile Top 4 horses, as were second and third finishers Good Magic and Audible.

The final Kentucky Derby workout by Justify was impressive, and that helped lead Downey to pick him right on top. Good Magic was in Downey's second spot for the cold exacta.

1. JUSTIFY (first)
2. GOOD MAGIC (second)
3. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
4. HOFBURG (seventh)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
6. BOLT D'ORO (twelfth)

Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for his Kentucky Derby subscribers for the fourth straight year in 2017.

Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4. Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.

1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page  for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were

1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were

1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)

Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were

1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)

The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 primarily focused on the Kentucky Derby and the Derby Trail

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