Kentucky Derby 150 Is History
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Dick Downey is a frequent contributor to BloodHorse on legal issues affecting the Thoroughbred industry and is the founder, owner and operator of The Downey Profile, a boutique, seasonal website focused on the runup to the Kentucky Derby. Downey created The Downey Profile for the 2003 Kentucky Derby after conducting a 300-hour study of factors most likely to be present in Kentucky Derby winners versus non-winners based on data in Daily Racing Form past performance charts since 1973. He's been updating that work ever since and is now in his 22d consecutive year covering the Derby at The Downey Profile. Downey's top Kentucky Derby selections won six straight runnings from 2014 through 2019. For more details about his past Derby selections, please scroll down.

2025 Road to the Kentucky Derby
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Mystik Dan Slips Through on Rail to Win Kentucky Derby 150
Kentucky Derby PPs w/ PP & ML - Brisnet
Kentucky Oaks PPs w/ PP & ML - Brisnet
Kentucky Derby PPs w/ PP & ML - Equibase
Overview of The Downey Profile
2024 Early Triple Crown Nominations
2024 Late Triple Crown Nominations
Kentucky Derby Week Stakes List
Videos from Jennie Rees
Connections of Mystik Dan: Lance and Sharilyn Gasaway; Brian Hernandez, Jr.; Kenny McPeek
Keith Asmussen, rider of Just Steel and Lemon Muffin
Brian Hernandez, Jr. rider of Mystik Dan and Thorpedo Anna
Wayne Lukas reflects on what it will take for Just Steel
Bill Mott after back-to-back breezes by Just F Y I and Resilience
Phil D'Amato prior to Stronghold's April 28 breeze
Steve Asmussen after Track Phantom's final Derby workout
Chad Brown after April 27 workouts by Sierra Leone and Domestic Product
Tyler Gaffalione 'living the dream' with mount on Sierra Leone looming
Danny Gargan after fast April 27 works by Dornoch, Society Man
Brad Cox on the decision to run Encino
Todd Pletcher comments on the April 26 workout by Fierceness
Mike Repole after Fierceness' breeze on April 26
Saffie Joseph discusses Catalytic
Todd Pletcher after Fierceness' first gallop at CD
Ben Curtis talks about his upcoming ride on Honor Marie
Whit Beckman: why he has Curtis on Honor Marie
Bill Mott atop his pony talking Resilience, Just F Y I
Junior Alvarado after working Resilience on April 22
Steve Asmussen shortly after Track Phantom's April 21 Breeze
Chad Brown after April 20 workouts by Sierra Leone, Domestic Product
Ken McPeek assesses Mystik Dan's preparation
Wayne Lukas talks about his Derby and Oaks prospects, how the Derby has changed, and more
Whit Beckman breaks down Honor Marie workout
Florent Geroux, Brad Cox after Encino's first dirt win
Brad Cox on trainees Catching Freedom, Just a Touch
Bill Mott on Resilience's Wood Memorial win
Whit Beckman: Louisiana Derby runner-up Honor Marie
Chad Brown after Sierra Leone's Blue Grass win
Tyler Gaffalione after Sierra Leone's Blue Grass win
Brad Cox after Just a Touch/John Ennis after Epic Ride in Blue Grass
Videos from Jennie Rees
Todd Pletcher on Oaks candidates Leslie's Rose and Candied following April 25 breezes
Mott on Just F Y I's second in the Kentucky Oaks
Connections of Kentucky Oaks contenders Leslie's Rose, Just F Y I
April 13 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes
1 Encino 2 The Wine Steward 3 Dilger (IRE) 4 Secret Chat 5 Footprint
T: Brad Cox J: Florent Geroux O: Godolphin B: Godolpin (KY)
Encino took the lead shortly after breaking from the gate and led at every call to win the Lexington Stakes. At 3-1 odds he held at bay favored The Wine Steward in the short stretch to win by just under a length with the two of them well ahead of the remaining field. Encino earned 20 Kentucky Derby points to push his total to 40 and give him an outside chance to make the Derby field. Encino's fractions were 23.55, 47.28, 1:11.94, 1:37.22 and home in 1:43.93.
April 6 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
1 Sierra Leone 2 Just a Touch 3 Epic Ride 4 Dornoch 5 Mugatu
T: Chad Brown J: Tyler Gaffalione O: Peter M. Brant, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg. and Brook T. Smith B: Debby M. Oxley (KY)
Sierra Leone won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes in remarkable fashion, coming from dead last in a field of 10 to overtake Just a Touch in the stretch on a Keeneland dirt track favoring forward speed all day. After multiple attempts to load a stubborn Sierra Leone into the outside post, the gate finally opened and Top Conor led every step of the way into the top of the stretch while attended by Just a Touch after running sprightly fractions of 23.15, 46.45 and 1:10.83. Just a Touch took a few moments to seize the lead over Top Conor, but he didn't possess the advantage very long as Sierra Leone, who was in last place mid-backstretch and who came wide around the far turn, charged past to win by 1 1/2 lengths. Epic Ride and Dornoch were prominent throughout and finished third and fourth, respectively. It was the first two-turn race for Just a Touch. Dornoch was in a bit tight going into the first turn. Final time as 1:50.08.
April 6 Santa Anita Derby
1 Stronghold 2 Imagination 3 E J Won the Cup 4 Curlin's Kaos 5 Tapalo
T: Phil D'Amato J: Antonio Fresu O: Eric M. Waller and Sharon Waller B: Eric Waller and Sharon Waller (KY)
Stronghold edged favored Imagination in a two-horse finish as the Santa Anita Derby wrapped up the final nine-furlong prep race for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Tapalo was earliest through the first quarter-mile in 22.72 with Imagination in hot pursuit, followed most closely by E J Won the Cup and Stronghold. Those four ran in the same order through the half-mile in 46.73, and after six furlongs in 1:10.90 Tapalo still led. In upper stretch Imagination initially held the advantage but was quickly joined by the surging winner as those two separated from the field. Stronghold got the win in 1:49.98 under Antonio Fresu. Trainer Phil D'Amato is on the way to his first Kentucky Derby.
April 6 Wood Memorial
1 Resilience 2 Society Man 3 Protective 4 Lonesome Boy 5 Uncle Heavy
T: Bill Mott J: John Velazquez O: Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman B: Pam and Martin Wygod
Resilience, with blinkers added and always prominent after breaking from post 1, won the Wood Memorial in a time of 1:50.28 as the race was marred when Deposition went down in mid-stretch with Dexter Haddock aboard. Deposition walked into a van and was taken to the backside. Haddock reportedly sat up on the track following the spill. Both were being checked out medically after the race. Top betting choices Deterministic and Tuscan Sky never seriously contended before the superfecta was filled out by extreme longshots: the late-running Society Man (106-1) second, Protective (38-1) third and Lonesome Boy (80-1) fourth. The 10-cent superfecta paid $6,776.55. Early fractions set by Evening News with Resilience and/or Lonesome Boy attending were 23.45, 47.49 and 1:12.31. John Velazquez rode at Keeneland April 5 but was at Aqueduct April 6 on the winner trained by Bill Mott.
March 30 Arkansas Derby
1 Muth 2 Just Steel 3 Mystik Dan 4 Timberlake 5 Informed Patriot
T: Bob Baffert J: Juan Hernandez O: Zedan Racing Stables B: Don Alberto Corporation (KY)
Bob Baffert shipper Muth got by favored Timberlake in the far turn and under Juan Hernandez stayed well ahead of the remaining challengers to win the Arkansas Derby. Just Steel, dismissed at 32-1, finished a non-threatening second with Mystik Dan belatedly getting up for third over Timberlake. Informed Patriot was fifth. Muth's 100 Kentucky Derby points will go unused with Baffert and all horses in his care barred from running in the Derby. Just Steel now has 65 Derby points, Mystik Dan 46, Timberlake 81 and Informed Patriot 18. Timberlake, pushed along by Muth in the early going, set fractions of 23.43, 47.46 and 1:12.46. The winning time was 1:49.54.
March 30 Florida Derby
1 Fierceness 2 Catalytic 3 Grand Mo the First 4 Conquest Warrior 5 Hades
T: Todd Pletcher J: John Velazquez O: Repole Stable B: Repole Stable
It was favored Fierceness by a pole in the Florida Derby to go to the head of the class in the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 136 points. He led under John Velazaquez at each call with fractions of 24.06, 47.50, 1:11.31 and 1:35.63 and a final time of 1:48.22. Longshot Catalytic (50 Derby points) was second at each call and clear at the wire although far back of the winner. Fellow longshot Grand Mo the First (40 points) was third. The second and third betting choices, Conquest Warrior (15 points) and Hades 30 points) finished fourth and fifth.
March 30 UAE Derby
1 Forever Young 2 Auto Bahn 3 Pandagate 4 Mendelssohn Bay 5 Navy Seal
T: Yoshito Yahagi J: Ryusei Sakai O: Susumu Fujita Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)
After a stalking trip from the far outside post, Forever Young (JPN) took the lead about 100 yards from home to win the UAE Derby. Auto Bahn (ARG), one of two pacesetters, settled for second, beaten two lengths. Pandagate (NY) third another 4 3/4 lengths back. Mendelssohn Bay (KY) fourth and Navy Seal (IRE) fifth, beaten 7 3/4 and 8 1/4 lengths, respectively. The time: 1:57.89. Kentucky Derby points: 100-50-30-20-10. Auto Bahn, bred in South America, is not a 3yo under N. A. rules and is not eligible for the Derby.
March 23 Fukuryu Stakes
1 T O Password 2 Arare Tabashiru 3 Amber Doll 4 La Oracion 5 Sunrise Soleil
T: Daisuke Takayanagi J: Katsuma Sameshima O:Tomoya Ozasa B: Yanagawa Bokujo (JPN)
T O Password became the first winner of the Fukuryu Stakes to accept an invitation to the Kentucky Derby. He was hustled to the lead early from post 10 of 11 and saved ground from there. After jetting away from a closely-bunched group of contenders leaving the far right-handed turn, he barely hung on to win the 1800 meter race in 1:54 1/5, two seconds or more slower than the previous three winners. His trainer commented later that the front-running style was employed to make sure they emerged victorious and implied the strategy would not be used in the "true test," the Kentucky Derby. The Fukuryu purse was $265,000 American.
March 23 Jeff Ruby Steaks
1 Endlessly 2 West Saratoga 3 Seize the Grey 4 Triple Espresso 5 Lucky Jeremy
T: Mike McCarthy J: Umberto Rispoli O: Amerman Racing LLC B: Mrs. Jerry Amerman (KY)
Endlessly sat behind an early honest pace, gained momentum on the far turn and charged home to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks as the 7-5 favorite. He was timed in 1:50.15. West Saratoga, who acted up behind the starting gate, was second, followed by second betting choice Seize the Grey and also-eligible-draw-in Triple Espresso. Early pacesetter Lucky Jeremy finished fifth after setting fractions of 23.33, 48.57 and 1:13.00. Endlessly had two horses beat as the field entered the far turn. Kentucky Derby points 100-50-30-20-10.
March 23 Louisiana Derby
1 Catching Freedom 2 Honor Marie 3 Tuscan Gold 4 Track Phantom 5 Common Defense
T: Brad Cox J: Flavien Prat O: Albaugh Family Stables LLC B: WinStar Farm LLC (KY)
The Louisiana Derby was won by Catching Freedom under Flavien Prat in last-to-first fashion after catching the pacesetting favorite, Track Phantom, in the stretch. Honor Marie also came on late to get second, followed in third by Tuscan Gold and fourth by Track Phantom. Common Defense was fifth. Track Phantom's opening fractions were 23.49, 48.33 and 1:12.54. The official final time was 1:56.16 for 1 3/16 mile. Kentucky Derby points 100-50-30-20-10.
March 9 Tampa Bay Derby
1 Domestic Product 2 No More Time 3 Grand Mo the First 4 Good Money 5 Heartened
T: Chad Brown J: Tyler Gaffalione O: Klaravich Stables Inc. B: Klaravich Stables (KY)
Domestic Product and No More Time topped the Tampa Bay Derby in a blanket finish and in that order. The race was run with the tote inoperable in Tampa and other east coast tracks. Good Money led through crawling fractions of 25.25, 51.15 and 1:16.21, with No More Time attending and Domestic Product waiting in mid-pack for the other one to make his move. That happened as they rounded the far turn. No More Time and Javier Castellano grabbed the lead in upper stretch only to be run down in the final jump by Domestic Product under Tyler Gaffalione. Grand Mo the First, who was running early with Domestic Product, was right there at the wire for third. Good Money was fourth and Heartened made a late move up the rail to get fifth. The winning time was 1:45.47. The Tampa Bay Derby, race 11 on the card, went off at 5:51 ET after an announced post time of 5:18. Wagers placed only on this race were not honored; instead, refunds were issued. The final race 12 was canceled. Kentucky Derby points 50-25-15-10-5.
March 3 San Felipe Stakes
Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5
1 Imagination 2 Wine Me Up 3 Mc Vay 4 Scatify
T: Bob Baffert J: L Dettori O: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert E. Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan and Tom J. Ryan B: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC
Imagination bested Wine Me Up by a head to win the San Felipe Stakes and top a Bob Baffert $2 exacta worth $8.00 in a field left with four starters after the scratch of their highly-regarded stablemate Nysos. Wine Me Up, sent off at 8-5 odds, was fast out of the gate and led into the first quarter-mile timed in 23.51 with Imagination next, followed by Scatify and Mc Vay. Early in the backstretch Frankie Dettori let Imagination go in front. With a half-mile timed in 47.84, the 4-5 favorite led the field into and around the far turn only to be confronted to his inside with a resurgent Wine Me Up under Juan Hernandez as the other two runners were competing for third. The leaders turned for home with 1:11.51 on the clock. Wine Me Up got ahead mid-stretch but couldn't turn back Imagination as they hit the wire in 1:44.51 bobbing in tandem. Mc Vay was third, Scatify a very distant fourth.
A stewards inquiry looked into Scatify's run into the first turn in tight behind Wine Me Up without resulting in any changes to the order of finish. Imagination was purchased for $1,050,000 at Keeneland September 2022. Kentucky Derby points available: 50-25-15-10; however the top two finishers are not eligible to compete due to an ongoing ban of Baffert racing at Churchill Downs.
March 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5
1 Dornoch 2 Frankie's Empire 3 Le Dom Bro 4 Real Macho 5 Dancing Groom
T: Danny Gargan J: Luis Saez O: West Paces Racing LLC, R. A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC and Pine Racing Stables B: Grandview Equine (KY)
A scratch-laden Fountain of Youth Stakes was won by heavy favorite Dornoch after he finally shook off stubborn longshot Le Dom Bro in the stretch after that one pressed him from the inside for most of the race. After breaking second to Le Dom Bro, Dornoch led through each call in honest fractions of 24.35, 48.14 and 1:11.43 before hitting the finish line in 1:43.64 on a fast track. Le Dom Bro held on for second just in front of the late-running Frankie's Empire. Real Macho was fourth after stalking the pace down the backside. Dancing Groom was fifth and last.
Second betting choice Speak Easy was a late scratch after getting loose on the track minutes before the race. Locked and Victory Avenue were scratched this morning, and Merit raced in an allowance on Friday instead of the Fountain of Youth. Derby points were available to each runner 50-25-15-10-5; however, Frankie's Empire and Le Dom Bro were not early-nominated to the Triple Crown. They can be late-nominated for $6,000 and pick up the points.
March 2 Gotham Stakes
Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5
1 Deterministic 2 Just A Touch 3 El Grande O 4 Maximus Meridius 5 Capital Idea
T: Christophe Clement J: Joel Rosario O: St. Elias Stable, Ken Langone, C. Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable B: Hinkle Farms (KY)
Deterministic came on after a stalking trip on a sloppy track to take the lead late and prevail in a rainy Gotham Stakes under Joel Rosario for trainer Christophe Clement. The one-turn mile was timed in a respectable 1:36.73. Just A Touch was second after vying for third with Deterministic in the early going. El Grande O ran closest to the lead down the backside and joined pacesetter Maximus Meridius with a quarter-mile to go. He looked like a winner after taking the lead in upper stretch only to hang on for third. Pacesetter Maximus Meridius faded to fourth after clipping off splits of 23.42, 46.63 and 1:10.94. Capital Idea was a non-threatening fifth. The top four were ahead of the remaining field the entire trip. Kentucky Derby points 50-25-15-10-5.
March 2 John Battaglia Memorial
Kentucky Derby points: 20-10-6-4-2
1 Encino 2 Epic Ride 3 Blue Eyed George 4 Mugatu 5 Ode to Balius
T: Brad Cox J: Axel Concepcion O: Godolphin B: Godolphin (KY)
Encino broke well from post 12, settled in fifth early, rated up the backstretch, gained ground on the outside in the far turn, and outran his competion to the wire in 1:44.22 under Axel Concepcion for trainer Brad Cox. Bolt at Midnight led through early fractions of 24.84 and 48.31 on the Tapeta surface, initally followed most closely by longshot Fidget, short-priced Blue Eyed George and favored Epic Ride. The latter one made a bold move in the far turn with Encino charging up to his outside. Six furlongs were gone in 1:12.98. Epic Ride left the turn on the lead but yielded late to Encino. Blue Eyed George stayed on to finish third. Mugatu came on fourth at 68-1 odds, and Ode to Balius, another longshot, picked up pieces to finish fifth. 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby points were available. The fourth and fifth finishers weren't early-nominated to the Triple Crown but will be awarded points if late-nominated.
Feb. 24 Rebel Stakes
Kentucky Derby Points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 Timberlake 2 Common Defense 3 Northern Flame 4 Woodcourt 5 Dimatic
T: Brad Cox J: Cristian Torres O: WinStar Farm LLC B: St. Elias Stables LLC (KY)
It was the favorite Timberlake, easily, at 4-5 odds in the Rebel Stakes. He laid in fifth early as Carbone led through honest fractions of 23.20 and 47.67 with Northern Flame, Common Defense and Woodcourt in closest pursuit. Into the far turn and six furlongs in 1:12.93, the top three were unchanged as Timberlake eased wide into fourth place. Carbone spit the bit in upper stretch as Timberlake surged to the front, drifted out and won going away in 1:44.00. The other early runners, longshots all, stayed on with Common Defense second, Northern Flame third, Woodcourt fourth. Dimatic was fifth.
Feb. 24 Saudi Derby
No Kentucky Derby points
1 Forever Young 2 Book'em Danno 3 Bentornato
T: Yoshito Yahagi J: Ryusei Sakai O: Susumu Fujita B: Northern Racing (JPN)
Heavily favored Forever Young (JPN) came running very late and stuck his nose in front of U. S. invader Book'em Danno to win the 1600 meter (about one mile) race at King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Riyadh. The winning time going one turn was 1:36.17. The pacesetting Bentornato, also based in the U. S., faded to third. The win sets up Forever Young for his intended target, the UAE Derby, on the road to the Kentucky Derby. The second and third finishers were not among early nominees to the Triple Crown.
Feb. 23 Al Bastakiya
No Kentucky Derby points
1 Killer Collect 2 Auto Bahn 3 Tactical Bound 4 Destructive
T: Bhupat Seemar J: Tadhg O'Shea O: Burke, Michael Hilary and Burke, Negar B: Romar Farm LLC & BRS (KY)
Triple Crown-nominated Killer Collect was tenacious winning the 1 3/16-mile Al Bastakiya for 3yo's at Meydan a few minutes ago. Under Tadhg O'Shea for trainer Bhupat Seemar, once Killer Collect established the lead his only serious challenger became Auto Bahn (not TC-nominated) to his outside. Those two were about five lengths in front at the top of the stretch, and Killer Collect refused to yield in an exciting finish, hitting the wire in 1:59.01 and a head in front. Tactical Bound was third, 5 1/2 lengths back. Destructive fourth.
Feb. 18 Sunland Park Derby
Kentucky Derby Points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 Stronghold 2 Alotaluck 3 Lucky Jeremy 4 Curlin's Kaos 5 Informed Patriot
T: Phil D'Amato J: Antonio Fresu O: Eric M. Waller and Sharon Waller B: Eric Waller and Sharon Waller (KY)
Despite drifting out in the stretch, 6-5 favorite Stronghold held sway to win the 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Derby. Lucky Jeremy shot to the early lead but was initially pressured by both the eventual winner and Alotofluck as they ran through the first quarter-mile in 23.69. Lucky Jeremy battled with Stronghold through subsequent fractions of 47.45 and 1:11.32. Stronghold got clear in mid-stretch while out in the middle of the track, hitting the wire in 1:42.64. Alotaluck stayed on and narrowly edged Lucky Jeremy for the place. Curlin's Kaos and Informed Patriot finished fourth and fifth.
Feb. 17 Risen Star Stakes
Kentucky Derby Points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 Sierra Leone 2 Track Phantom 3 Catching Freedom 4 Resilience 5 Honor Marie
T: Chad Brown J: Tyler Gaffalione O: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor, Derrick Smith, Smith Westerberg, Brook T. and Peter M. Brant B: Debby M. Oxley (KY)
In a full field of 12, favored Sierra Leone came on late after trailing modest early fractions to win the Risen Star Stakes in 1:52.13 on a track that was sloppy all day. Track Phantom led through splits of 24.32, 49.67, 1:14.74 and 1:39.40 before yielding late to the winner by a half-length. As the field passed the finish line the first time, Sierra Leone had three horses beat. Catching Freedom, mid-pack early, made a solid bid to get a close third. Resilience, always prominent, hung on for fourth. Honor Marie fifth. Hall of Fame faded to seventh after a far turn move. Kentucky Derby points: 50-25-15-10-5.
Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes
Kentucky Derby Points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 No More Time 2 Agate Road 3 West Saratoga 4 Elysian Meadows 5 Fulmineo
T: Jose Francisco D'Angelo J: Paco Lopez O: Morplay Racing LLC B: MAMAS Thoroughbreds LLC (IA)
In the Sam F. Davis Stakes, No More Time stayed on well after leading through early splits of 23.52 and 46.61 while pressed by West Saratoga, eventually outran that one and easily held off a late move by Agate Road. West Saratoga third by several lengths, Elysian Meadows and Fulmineo fourth and fifth. Final time a respectable 1:43.26.
Feb. 3 Foursome
Kentucky Derby Points Races (20-10-6-4-2)
WITHERS STAKES
1 Uncle Heavy 2 El Grande O 3 Lightline 4 Deposition 5 Khanate
T: Robert Reid Jr; J: Mychel Sanchez; O: Michael Milam; B: Barbara Reid (PA)
El Grande O took took the wet surface again on or contending for the lead and shook off challengers, but it was the closing Uncle Heavy (9-1) who was best, nailing El Grande O (4-1) at the wire in the 1 1/8-mile Withers. Favored Lightline third, longshot Deposition fourth, a fading Khanate fifth. Nine ran. Fractions 24.14, 49.49, 1:14.44, 1:40.17 and the final in 1:53.79.
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES
1 Nysos 2 Wine Me Up 3 Scatify 4 Mc Vay 5 Moonlit Sonata
T: Bob Baffert J: Flavien Prat O: Bamo Corp. (Charles and Su Chu) B: Atkins Susie (KY)
Nysos the one by a pole in the Bob Lewis Stakes, bided his time behind Scatify, Wine Me Up, Mc Vay, then blew by coming out of the far turn. Early splits were quick 22.81 and 46.67, then 1:11.11 when Nysos wound up and fired the fast ball. Seven in 1:23.86, final in 1:36.65. Next four finishers were Wine Me Up, Scatify, Mc Vay and Moonlit Sonata.
SOUTHWEST STAKES
1 Mystik Dan 2 Just Steel 3 Liberal Arts 4 Awesome Road 5 Common Defense
T: Kenny McPeek J: Brian Hernandez, Jr. O: Lance Gasaway, 4G Racing LLC and Daniel Hamby III B: Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing (KY)
Wow, Mystik Dan won by a pole too with Brian Hernandez, Jr. sneaking up the rail to blow by early stretch leader Just Steel in the Southwest Stakes. Liberal Arts almost up for second but not quite. Awesome Road and Common Defense fourth and fifth. Early pacesetters Carbone and Otto the Conqueror not around late. Track muddy. Fractions 23.56, 47.95, 1:13.23, 1:37.74, 1:43.67.
HOLY BULL STAKES
1 Hades 2 Domestic Product 3 Fierceness 4 Inveigled 5 Dancing Groom
T: Joe Orseno J: Paco Lopez O: D J Stable and Robert Cotran B: Ocala Stud, Joseph M. O'Farrell III , David O'Farrell et al (FL)
The Holy Bull wraps up today's Derby points foursome with strong favorite Fierceness not up to the task. Hades led all but a few strides -- Fierceness stuck a head in front to the outside after about six furlongs -- but Hades went on with it and Fierceness gave way to the late-running second finisher Domestic Product. Early contender Inveigled hung on for fourth, Dancing Groom fifth. Fractions on the fast track were moderate-to-slow 25.03, 50.53, 1:14.25, 1:39.28 and 1:46.07.
Dec. 3, 2022 Announcement
Friends and Colleagues: Today I am announcing The Downey Profile is returning for the 2023 Kentucky Derby. We will continue coverage as we did in 2021 and 2022, a scaled-back version from years before.
As I keep my hand in this great race and Kentucky spectacle, this will be my 21st Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile.
To TDP subscribers, I cannot thank you enough for your friendly, supportive relationship with me over the years.
Hope everyone has a great holiday and 2023, and God bless.
--Dick Downey, Dec. 3, 2022
HOW WE'VE FARED IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY
In 2023, our top pick was a horse I had in a future wager at 112-1 that turned out to be the favorite, Angel of Empire. He finished a surging third. The winner was Mage. Although we encouraged using him in exotic wagers, he did not fit our Profile and was not a Profile Buster.
1. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (objective pick) (third)
2. KINGSBARNS (subjective pick) (fourteenth)
3. TWO PHIL'S (objective pick) (second)
4. TAPIT TRICE (objective pick) (seventh)
Longshots
DISARM (subjective pick) (fourth)
ROCKET CAN (subjective pick) (ninth)
In 2022, for the second consecutive year, the winner was not in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor was he a Profile Buster. Rich
Strike won at 80-1 odds. Dick's Picks were:
1 ZANDON (third at 6-1)
2 CROWN PRIDE
(contested fast pace, 13th at 17-1)
3 TAIBA (12th at 5-1)
4 EPICENTER (second at 4-1)
5 MESSIER (15th at 7-1)
6 WHITE ABARRIO (16th at 15-1)
In 2021, the Kentucky Derby winner was neither in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor a Profile Buster for the first time since 2009.
Downey had him in the fifth slot among six selections.
1. HOT ROD CHARLIE (third at 5-1)
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (fourth at 5-2)
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD (seventeenth at 9-2)
KING FURY -SCRATCHED
4. KNOWN AGENDA (ninth at 9-1))
5. MEDINA SPIRIT (first at 12-1)*
6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (tenth at 10-1)
*Disqualified later: medication infraction
HARD TO LEAVE OUT
MIDNIGHT BOURBON
(sixth at 13-1)
LONGSHOTS I LIKE MOST (in post position order)
MANDALOUN (second at 28-1)**
O BESOS (fifth at 41-1)
**Moved up to first after Medina Spirit DQ
In 2020, Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page failed to win for the first time in seven years. Three of Downey's four picks finished in the top four, including winner Authentic. The top two finishers were among The Downey
Profile's Top 4 rankings, as was fourth finisher Honor A. P.
1. TIZ THE LAW (second)
2. HONOR A. P. (fourth)
THOUSAND WORDS (SCR)
3. Ny TRAFFIC (eighth)
4. AUTHENTIC (first)
Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby in 2019. It was the sixth straight year his top pick won, and Maximum Security was among The Downey Profile's Top 4 horses, as was Tacitus. Four of Downey's top five picks finished in the top five.
1. MAXIMUM SECURITY (first - DQ'd by stewards to 17th)
2. TACITUS (fourth, moved up to third)
3. IMPROBABLE (fifth, moved up to fourth
4. VEKOMA (thirteenth, moved up to twelfth)
5. CODE OF HONOR (third, moved up to second)
Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby for the fifth straight year in 2018. Justify was among The Downey Profile Top 4 horses, as were second and third finishers Good Magic and Audible.
The final Kentucky Derby workout by Justify was impressive, and that helped lead Downey to pick him right on top. Good Magic was in Downey's second spot for the cold exacta.
1. JUSTIFY (first)
2. GOOD MAGIC (second)
3. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
4. HOFBURG (seventh)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
6. BOLT D'ORO (twelfth)
Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for his Kentucky Derby subscribers for the fourth straight year in 2017.
Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4. Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)
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