By Dick Downey

May 16, 2022

Epicenter lost his bid to become the first Kentucky Derby winner bred near my home in Bowling Green, Ky. Ironic, at least to me, is that the upset winner was bred by Brad Kelley's Calumet Farm --because Brad was born and raised 20 miles from Bowling Green in Simpson County where I was born and grew up. It's a small world, but it's an even smaller state.

Rich Strike's most recent dirt Beyer was a 64. He was given a 101 in the Derby. His pre-Derby last-race Beyer was a career-best 84 running on synthetic in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Brisnet gave Rich Strike a Derby figure of 102. He had earned a 95 Bris figure in the Ruby. His best pre-Derby dirt figure was an 85 when he won the $30k claiming race at Churchill Downs last year.

Equibase shows an interesting progression of figures lifetime for Rich Strike -- 27(T)-77(D)-74(D)-75(D)-88(S)-94(S)-96(S) capped by a 106 in the Derby -- but even if I handicapped using those figures he would not have been attractive to me.

"Time reveals all," was carved into the old clock tower at The Curragh. I told a friend soon after the Derby if Rich Strike goes on to the Preakness and runs well, his Derby win will be verified. That's not going to happen, though. But time will reveal all.

All that said, if you pressed the All button on top, I am more than happy for you for hitting some exotics. I benefitted from the upset by cashing future wagers on All Others in Pool 1 and Pool 4, but my exotic wagers did not include Rich Strike.

My top choice Zandon got a great trip according to trainer Brown and jockey Prat. What I saw was a horse that got shuffled back early and overcame a lot, while finding some good openings along the way, to almost win the race. Epicenter was totally game holding Zandon off by three parts of a length.

I can't get a grip on the performance of Crown Pride (JPN). His handlers spent weeks training him to be patient, and he had shown the ability to rate in past performances -- then he ran off in the Derby. Maybe he was overtrained, maybe connections should have used an American jockey, or maybe just he lost his mind in all the pageantry.

I don't know about you, but I couldn't shake the "Baffert" feeling with Messier and Taiba. I'm not saying Baffert was training them. He couldn't legally do that. Turns out they were not at all formidable and ruined many a ticket.

After picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby right on top for six straight years (2014-2019), which I never thought I could do, since then my top pick ran second once (Tiz the Law in 2020), and third twice (Hot Rod Charlie in 2021 and Zandon in 2022).

A Personal Note

This was the 20th Kentucky Derby for The Downey Profile, which I launched when I was 51. Now I'm 71 and beginning to wonder if it's time to call it a day. I've had so much fun and met so many people, and there are many loyal subscribers who have been nothing but kind to me all these years. It might be best to quit while I'm ahead. But it's hard to think about giving it up.

Influencing my thinking is a health scare from mid-2020 when I was diagnosed with stage 3 prostate cancer. There is nothing like being told you have cancer in the middle of a pandemic; but surgery, radiation therapy and hormone therapy have led to a happy ending. Today my doc told me I am cancer free, subject to having my blood tested once a year.

Thank you for your support, and good luck in the Preakness. I am leaning toward Early Voting and wondering whether Epicenter can get it done on short rest.