Kentucky Derby 147 Wrap

By Dick Downey
Posted May 3, 2021

Thank you again for your support of my work. This Derby was a real challenge, and I missed a winner.

One reason I found it difficult to ever deep-down believe in this horse was that he cost only $1,000 the first time he went to auction. How could so many knowledgeable people overlook him?

This year, the Kentucky Derby winner was neither in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor a Profile Buster for the first time since 2009, when Mine That Bird won the Derby at 50-1 odds. Full disclosure, Orb was a Profile Buster in 2013, but he was tied three others. So it's fair to say Medina Spirit was only the second Derby winner in the last 13 runnings that didn't totally fit one of our models. Medina Spirit was ranked 10th in The Downey Profile, and he had only three Profile Buster points while Known Agenda led with six.

The winner didn't fare well in speed figures, either. Among six different measures of speed in 3-year-old stakes races going nine furlongs or more, he ranked in the Top 4 in only one, and that was Brisnet's E1-E2 early pace figures (first four furlongs of Santa Anita Derby in 46.31).
   --He was not close to being among the best figures in late pace (finished Santa Anita Derby in a dawdling 38.98).
   --He was tied for the seventh-best Beyer figure (94) and was tied for the fifth-best Brisnet figure (98).
   --In the DRF combined speed-track variant category, he was 13th (96).
   --I didn't write down his Equibase rank, but it was definitely not Top 4. Equibase gave him a 97 for the Santa Anita Derby.

In the Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit ran a 102 Beyer and a 110 Equibase figure. I'm waiting to hear from Brisnet, and I don't have the other speed measures today.

I wrote of Medina Spirit on the subscription page,

"Whether or not you like Bob Baffert, give him credit for saying what he thinks Derby week. If he has a horse he thinks can win the Derby, he says it's great to be at Churchill Downs with a horse that has a good chance to win. If he doesn't, he says things like, 'this is a top 10 horse, not a top five horse' which is what he's saying now.

"Still, Medina Spirit is a fighter with good early speed. I am informed he was not 100 percent for the Santa Anita Derby, and that he is 100 percent now. If that assessment is accurate, he could take this field deep into the stretch. I'm not on the Win wagon with Medina Spirit, but plenty of tired horses will be unable to get by him in the stretch if he runs his race. He's a fighter that runs with his head low, and he tries hard every time.

"There is a question about the distance. Rock Your World was in his own zip code in the Santa Anita Derby gallop-out. Medina Spirit was not visible on TV during the gallop-out."

Mandaloun didn't rank well in the Profile or as a Profile Buster either, but he did rank well when gauging his speed figures from the Risen Star. There was a question whether Mandaloun would run to his training at Churchill Downs, which was phenomenal. He sure did, in spades, at 26-1 odds. Mandaloun was one of two horses I picked as "longshots I like best." Besos, who finished fifth at 41-1 odds, was the other one. I wrote that I would make a $20 saver win bet on Mandaloun, and I did, but.... Guess I should have bet him to place.

Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality were Downey Profile Top 4 horses, and I picked them first and second. They ran third and fourth, finishing only a length behind the winner. Rock Your World was in the Top 4, but he was done when he found himself behind several horses early in the race, which I wrote (a) could hurt him but (b) I didn't think would happen. Super Stock was in the Top 4, but I dismissed him as being too slow.

Jockey Prat waited longer than I expected to make his move with Hot Rod Charlie, but regardless of that, Hot Rod Charlie was only a half-length behind Medina Spirit at the top of the stretch and just couldn't get by the top two. Essential Quality bumped repeatedly with Rock Your World at the start and was five wide on both turns, seriously compromising his chances before finishing only a head behind Hot Rod Charlie.

In the final analysis, and not to take anything away from the brilliant John Velazquez, it appears the main thing Medina Spirit had going for him was that he was in Bob Baffert's barn. I don't know how he does it, but Baffert has turned into the Nick Saban of horse racing.

Hope to see you next year, and thank you again.

DICK'S PICKS were
1. HOT ROD CHARLIE (third at 5-1)
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (fourth at 5-2)
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD (seventeenth at 9-2)
KING FURY -SCRATCHED
4. KNOWN AGENDA (ninth at 9-1))
5. MEDINA SPIRIT (first at 12-1)
6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (tenth at 10-1)

HARD TO LEAVE OUT
MIDNIGHT BOURBON (sixth at 13-1)

LONGSHOTS I LIKE MOST (in post position order)
MANDALOUN (second at 26-1)
O BESOS (fifth at 41-1)


The Commish accurately predicted that early pace would make the race and wrote, "Medina Spirit is the last man standing for trainer Bob Baffert, and we know all too well he knows how to bring them in ready to rumble every time. Bob recently said in an interview that he likes to bring a top 5 horse to the dance, and this guy is more of a top 10. Not the confidence I like to see by any means. Nevertheless, he is a real trier and did run two good seconds to Rock Your World and Life is Good. It speaks volumes to his ability to run with these. Tough to dismiss underneath." He had Medina Spirit seventh in the order of his selections.

Selections by The Commish were
1. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (tenth at 10-1)
2. ROCK YOUR WORLD (seventeenth at 9-2)
3. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (fourth at 5-2)
4. HOT ROD CHARLIE (third at 5-1)
5. MIDNIGHT BOURBON (sixth at 13-1)
6. O BESOS (fifth at 41-1)