NINE-FURLONG PREP RACES

NOTES, FRACTIONS AND HOW THEY FINISHED; BEYERS

*Please note my April 14 postscript to the Blue Grass Stakes.

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UPDATES

March 27: Comments for the Fukuyru Stakes

March 25: Comments and fractions for the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks

April 1: Comments and fractions for the Florida Derby, UAE Derby, Arkansas Derby

April 7: Comments and fractions for the Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby

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A Bonus Section: 8.5 Furlong Races Since Feb. 3

Feb. 3

Hades won the Holy Bull with an always prominent trip. Hades led all but a few strides -- Fierceness stuck a head in front to the outside after about six furlongs -- but Hades went on with it and Fierceness gave way to the late-running second finisher Domestic Product. Early contender Inveigled hung on for fourth, Dancing Groom fifth. Fractions on the fast track were moderate-to-slow 25.03, 50.53, 1:14.25, 1:39.28 and 1:46.07. Final 5/16 in 31.82. He got a 90 Beyer, adjusted from the original 85.

Feb. 3

Robert B. Lewis Stakes. This race was run at one mile. Nysos was the one "by a pole." He bided his time behind Scatify, Wine Me Up, Mc Vay, then blew by coming out of the far turn. Early splits were quick 22.81 and 46.67, then 1:11.11 when Nysos wound up and fired the fast ball. Seven in 1:23.86, final in 1:36.65. Final quarter-mile in 25.54. Next four finishers were Wine Me Up, Scatify, Mc Vay and Moonlit Sonata. Nysos and Wine Me Up ineligilbe for the Kentucky Derby because they are trained by Bob Baffert. Nysos given a 105 Beyer.

Feb. 3

Southwest Stakes. Mystik Dan rode the rail through the far turn under Brian Hernandez and blew away opponents in the muddy stretch. Early stretch leader Just Steel hung on for second with Liberal Arts almost up for the place but not quite. Awesome Road and Common Defense fourth and fifth. Early pacesetters Carbone and Otto the Conqueror not around late. Pace fractions 23.56, 47.95, 1:13.23, 1:37.74, 1:43.67. Mystik Dan finished the final 5/16 in 30.04.

Feb. 10

Sam F. Davis Stakes. No More Time stayed on well after leading through early splits of 23.52 and 46.61 while pressed by West Saratoga, eventually outran that one and easily held off a late move by Agate Road. West Saratoga third by several lengths, Elysian Meadows and Fuilmineo fourth and fifth. Final time a respectable 1:43.26 after six furlongs in 1:10.81, leaving the final 5/16 at 32.45. Despite his solid overall time, maybe the slowish finish led to an 80 Beyer.

Feb. 18

Sunland Derby goes to Stronghold. Despite drifting out in the stretch, 6-5 favorite Stronghold held sway to win. Lucky Jeremy shot to the early lead but was initially pressured by both the eventual winner and Alotofluck as they ran through the first quarter-mile in 23.69. Lucky Jeremy battled with Stronghold through subsequent fractions of 47.45 and 1:11.32. Stronghold got clear in mid-stretch while out in the middle of the track, hitting the wire in 1:42.64. Alotaluck stayed on and narrowly edged Lucky Jeremy for the place. Curlin's Kaos fourth. Informed Patriot fifth. Stronghold's final 5/16 mile went in 31.32. Stronghold registered an 89 Beyer (and thanks to a loyal subscriber for the info).

Feb. 24

in the Rebel Stakes it was the favorite Timberlake, easily, at 4-5 odds. He laid in fifth early as Carbone led through honest fractions of 23.20 and 47.67 with Northern Flame, Common Defense and Woodcourt in closest pursuit. Into the far turn and six furlongs in 1:12.93, the top three were unchanged as Timberlake eased wide into fourth place, two lengths back. Carbone spit the bit in upper stretch as Timberlake surged to the front, drifted out and won going away in 1:44.00 with the final 5/16 timed in 30.67. The other early runners, longshots all, stayed on with Common Defense finishing second, Northern Flame third, Woodcourt fourth. Dimatic was fifth. Cristian Torres up on the winner. Timberlake was awarded a 93 Beyer.

March 2

Encino won the Battaglia Memorial on Tapeta synthetic. Encino broke well from post 12, settled in fifth early, rated up the backstretch, gained ground on the outside in the far turn, and outran his competion to the wire in 1:44.22 under Axel Concepcion. Bolt at Midnight led through early fractions of 24.84 and 48.3, initally followed most closely by longshot Fidget, short-priced Blue Eyed George and favored Epic Ride. The latter one made a bold move in the far turn with Encino charging up to his outside. Six furlongs were gone in 1:12.98. Epic Ride left the turn on the lead but yielded late to Encino. Blue Eyed George stayed on to finish third. Mugatu came on fourth at 68-1 odds, and Ode to Balius, another longshot, picked up pieces to finish fifth. Encino finished in 30.84. His Beyer figure was 89.

March 2

The scratch-laden Fountain of Youth was won by heavy favorite Dornoch after he finally shook off stubborn longshot Le Dom Bro in the stretch after that one pressed him from the inside for most of the race. Luis Saez was aboard. After breaking second to Le Dom Bro, Dornoch led through each call in honest fractions of 24.35, 48.14 and 1:11.43 before hitting the finish line in 1:43.64 on a fast track. Le Dom Bro clung to second just ahead of the late-running Frankie's Empire. Real Macho was fourth after stalking the pace down the backside. Dancing Groom was fifth and last. Second betting choice Speak Easy was a late scratch after getting loose on the track minutes before the race. Locked and Victory Avenue were scratched race morning, and Merit raced in an allowance on Friday instead of the Fountain of Youth. The final 5/16 was timed in 32.21. Dornoch didn't have to run too hard according to trainer Gargan. His Beyer was 88.

March 2

The winner of the San Felipe was Imagination, Wine Me Up second. Neither can qualify for the Kentucky Derby because they are in Bob Baffert's barn. Third- and fourth-finishers Mc Vay and Scatify were beaten 6 3/4 and 37 3/4 lengths, respectively, after the latter was eased.

March 9

Tampa Bay Derby. Domestic Product, No More Time and Grand Mo the First topped the Tampa Bay Derby in a blanket finish and in that order. The race was run with the tote inoperable in Tampa and other east coast tracks. Good Money led through crawling fractions of 25.25, 51.15 and 1:16.21, with No More Time attending and Domestic Product and Grand Mo the First waiting in mid-pack for the other one to make his move. That happened as they rounded the far turn. No More Time and Javier Castellano grabbed the lead in upper stretch only to be run down in the final jump by Domestic Product under Tyler Gaffalione. Grand Mo the First, who was running early alongside Domestic Product, was right there at the wire for third. Good Money was fourth and Heartened made a late move up the rail to get fifth. The winning time was 1:45.47. The Tampa Bay Derby, race 11 on the card, went off at 5:51 ET after an announced post time of 5:18.Domestic Product got the final 5/16 mile in a very quick 28.86 seconds which is understandable considering the glacial early pace. The Tampa Bay Derby unfolded much like the Risen Star and had the look of a turf race even though both were run on dirt. Domestic Product was given an 82 Beyer. Word came out that the fractional times were double-checked and are accurate.

April 13

Lexington Stakes. Encino, a personal favorite of mine, led at each call and finished the final 5/16 mile in 31.99, not bad after running the first quarter-mile in 23.55 and the half in 47.28. His six-furlong time was 1:11.94. Encino slowed down the pace in the fourth quarter-mile timed in 25.28 (the mile in 1:37.22). In the far turn, Encino and runner-up The Wine Steward had separated themselves from the remaining field. At that point Luis Saez started asking The Wine Steward hard while Florent Geroux was sitting chilly on Encino. In the stretch Geroux popped Encino with his crop twice but mainly waved the stick. The camera angle on the gallop out initially features Encino alone with The Wine Steward nowhere to be seen. Eventually Secret Chat galloped past Encino. Encino earned a 94 Beyer for this effort

Early Nine Furlong Races

The Withers, El Camino Real Derby and Risen Star Stakes are run relatively early compared to the heavyweight races with more Derby points typically starting in late March.

Feb. 3

Withers Stakes. Uncle Heavy won in a slow 1:53.79 on a muddy/sealed track. His Beyer figure was 84, a cut below his peers in the same time period.

Feb. 10

El Camino Real Derby. Endlessly was sent off at 7-10 odds in a field of eight and won going away in the final edition of this race at soon-to-be-shuttered Golden Gate Fields. Endlessly was 7 1/2 lengths off the pace after a quarter-mile and won by 1 1/4 length. His internal fractions were 24.55, 49.01, 1:13.99, 1:38.66 and the final time was 1:50.68. He did not run 12-second furlongs at at least three of the five calls, but he did finish the final 3/8 mile in under 38 seconds -- we have him at 36.69. Umberto Rispoli had the mount. Endlessly earned an 87 Beyer.

Feb. 17

Risen Star Stakes. Sierra Leone made his much-heralded return to the races, winning at 2-1 odds in a field of 12 with a late run well out on a sloppy-sealed track under Tyler Gaffalione. Sierra Leone trailed modest early fractions. Final time was 1:52.13 on a track that was very wet all day. Track Phantom led through splits of 24.32, 49.67, 1:14.74 and 1:39.40 before yielding late to the winner by a half-length. As the field passed the finish line the first time, Sierra Leone had three horses beat. Catching Freedom, mid-pack early, made a solid bid to get a close third. Resilience, always prominent, hung on for fourth. Honor Marie fifth. Sierra Leone finished the final 3/8 mile in a respectable 36.89, but his early fractions were very slow as he trailed the pace at the first three calls by 6 1/2 lengths, 6 1/4 lengths and 2 1/2 lengths. Sierra Leone acquired a Beyer figure of 90.  APRIL 21 POSTSCRIPT: Nothing ran in 12s, but the top five finishers all got the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less: Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Resilience and Honor Marie.

Major Nine Furlong+ Races

Every year we examine fractions in the 9 and 9.5 furlong Kentucky Derby prep races, with emphasis on (1) whether horses finished the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less; and (2) whether horses ran 12-second furlongs, or what we call "12s," at three of the five calls or better. See Section 7 for more information about "12's". Horses with these abilities do well in the Kentucky Derby. It's better if a horse can run "12's" AND finish in 38 seconds or less in the same race.

March 23

1 3/16 Mile Louisiana Derby Comments and Fractions

The fifth running of the Louisiana Derby at the current distance of 1 3/16 mile. In 2020 favored Wells Bayou won in 1:56.47 and earned an Equibase speed figure of 102. Hot Rod Charlie was best in 2021, timed in 1:55.06 (101 Equibase figure). In 2022 it was Epicenter in 1:54.38 (new track record, 102 Equibase). In 2023 Kingsbarns was timed in 1:57.33 (96 Equibase figure). In 2024 Catching Freedom's time was 1:56.16 (98 Equibase figure). 

This race continued a 2024 trend where the top finishers of Kentucky Derby points races run relatively slowly early and fast late, much like winners of turf races.

Catching Freedom, who earned a 97 Beyer, charged from last to first as he enjoyed the extra distance of the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. He'll get six weeks to prepare for the Kentucky Derby, and he may need it after that gigantic effort. Since trainer Cox is a Louisville resident, we expect Catching Freedom to be at Churchill Downs sooner rather than later. We will follow Catching Freedom's workouts and general appearances on the track as the big day draws nearer.

Although he gets credit for finishing the final three furlongs in under 38 seconds, Catching Freedom did not run 12-second furlongs (see Section 7 for more about that). However, note he ran each leg of the second, third and fourth quarter-miles faster than the leg before it, and he finished the final 3/16 mile in just over 18 seconds. If it's the finest effort of his career, who can fault that? Whether he can run back to it is another question. It's possible he could improve. Time reveals all.

Honor Marie also did not run 12s, but he finished strongly and gets credit for getting the final three furlongs in 38 seconds or less. This was a greatly improved effort from the Risen Star, when Honor Marie either didn't like the slop or just needed a race. The slop was probably not the culprit -- he finished second sprinting on a sloppy course last year at Churchill Downs. Third race off the layoff could bode well for him.

Tuscan Gold ran 12s in at least three of the five calls, so he gets credit for that. He also is credited with an interpolated final three furlongs in 38 seconds or less. Trainer Brown was high on Tuscan Gold coming into the Louisiana Derby, and he ran really well except for the fact that he switched back to his left lead as he was surpassed by the top two. Some might say he ran evenly, and that wouldn't be unfair. Caught in the stretch by a pair of freight trains going downhill, he passed another pair, early leaders Track Phantom and Common Defense. Tuscan Gold probably got a lot out of the race but showed he needed more seasoning.

Track Phantom may have run into distance limitations. I'm not totally convinced because he ran 12s and maybe (it depends on how you figure it) an interpolated final 3/8 in under 38 seconds. I'm inclined to veer away from the latter factor because he slowed considerably in the final 3/16 mile which, if interpolated to 3/8 mile, results in a finish of almost 38 3/5 seconds. Regardless, after setting an honest pace while pressured by Common Defense through the first mile, he was unable to out-finish the top three. Should Track Phantom continue to the Kentucky Derby, it's hard to see anyone trying to change his forward running style.

Common Defense slowed in the stretch considerably more than Track Phantom. Common Defense gets credit for 12s but not finishing in 38 seconds or less. Behind by 1/2 length after a mile, Common Defense was beaten four lengths after he switched back to his left lead about 200 yards from the finish line, per the Equibase chart.

The Louisiana Derby is not included in the portion of The Downey Profile that rewards horses for finishing first or second in one of five major prep races. Although its stature has been praised since the distance was upped from nine furlongs to 1 3/16 mile, it is nevertheless true that since then not one horse that finished first or second in the Louisiana Derby has won the Kentucky Derby. Could this year be the year?

The gallop-out had Tuscan Gold and Agate Road besting the others. Catching Freedom and Honor Marie were pulled up early in the first turn.

Catching Freedom

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.24 (eleventh)
1/2 mile -- :49.88 (eleventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.89 (eleventh)
1 mile -- 1:37.88 (fourth)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:56.16 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.24
second 1/4 mile -- :24.64
third 1/4 mile -- :24.01
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.99
final 3/16 mile -- :18.28

Honor Marie

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.94 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :49.58 (tenth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.54 (ninth)
1 mile -- 1:37.93 (sixth)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:56.36 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.94
second 1/4 mile -- :24.64
third 1/4 mile -- :23.96
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.39
final 3/16 mile -- :18.43

Tuscan Gold

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.94 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :48.63 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.74 (third)
1 mile -- 1:37.68 (third)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:56.51 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.94
second 1/4 mile -- :24.69
third 1/4 mile -- :24.11
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.94
final 3/16 mile -- :18.83

Track Phantom

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.49 (first)
1/2 mile -- :48.33 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.54 (first)
1 mile -- 1:37.38 (first)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:56.66 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.49
second 1/4 mile -- :24.84
third 1/4 mile -- :23.21
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.84
final 3/16 mile -- :19.28

Common Defense

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.69 (second)
1/2 mile -- :48.43 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.64 (second)
1 mile -- 1:37.48 (second)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:56.96 (fifth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.69
second 1/4 mile -- :24.74
third 1/4 mile -- :24.21
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.84
final 3/16 mile -- :19.48

March 23
1 1/8 Mile Jeff Ruby Steaks Comments and Fractions

Endlessly, who earned a 91 Beyer, did not run12s, but he did finish impressively in under 38 seconds to win by four convincing lengths. He continued a 2024 Derby points races theme: slow early, fast late. The Tapeta surface at Turfway Park has in the limited time I've watched it this year played fairly, but here is a case where the finish looked turfy.

After winning the Jeff Ruby, trainer McCarthy was equivocal about Endlessly's dirt-track prospects. We will see if Derby Fever grips owner Amerman. Endlessly is known for being just okay in his dirt works, but the fact remains he's never run on Churchill Downs' dirt track, which many experts say can accommodate turf horses. Let's see how Endlessly responds when he is shipped into Churchill Downs for either the American Turf or the Kentucky Derby.

West Saratoga was "outgamed late" in the words of the chart call. Third by 1/2 length at the furlong marker, he was beaten four lengths. He did not run 12s but did finish in under 38 seconds.

Seize the Grey also failed to run 12s but finished in under 38 seconds. He ran evenly throughout -- off the pace by 2 1/2 lengths, 1 3/4 lengths, 1 3/4 lengths and 2 1/4 lengths before finishining four lengths and a head behind at the wire.

You could throw a towel over the distance between West Saratoga, Seize the Grey, Triple Espresso and Woodcourt as they crossed the finish line. In the gallop-out, Endlessly was pulled up fairly early in the first turn. Most eager were Lucky Jeremy and Woodcourt, although neither of them displayed a monster gallop-out.

Endlessly

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.12 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :49.22 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.65 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:37.93 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.15 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.12
second 1/4 mile -- :25.10
third 1/4 mile -- :24.43
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.28
final 1/8 mile -- :12.22
final 3/8 mile -- :36.50

West Saratoga

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.93 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :48.77 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.10 (third)
1 mile -- 1:38.03 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.95 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.93
second 1/4 mile -- :24.84
third 1/4 mile -- :24.33
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.93
final 1/8 mile -- :12.92
final 3/8 mile -- :37.85

Seize the Grey

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.83 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :48.92 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.35 (fifth)
1 mile -- 1:38.38 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.97 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.83
second 1/4 mile -- :25.09
third 1/4 mile -- :24.43
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.03
final 1/8 mile -- :12.59
final 3/8 mile -- :37.62

March 23

1800 Meter Fukuryu Stakes Comments
T O Password became the first winner of the Fukuryu Stakes to accept an invitation to the Kentucky Derby. T O Password was hustled to the lead from post 10 of 11 and saved ground from there under Katsuma Sameshima. He nearly gave up his advantage nearing the stretch but jetted away from a closely-bunched group of contenders leaving the far right-handed turn and built a two-length lead. However, he barely hung on by a long nose to win the 1800 meter race in 1:54 1/5, two seconds or more slower than the previous three winners. Track video does not show internal fractions. His trainer, Daisuke Takayanagi, commented later that the front-running style was employed to make sure they emerged victorious and implied the strategy would not be used in the "true test," the Kentucky Derby. The Fukuryu purse was $265,000 American.

March 30
Florida Derby Comments and Fractions

Fierceness ran a perfect race by my metrics, achieving 12-second furlongs at every call, including the finish line, and finishing the final three furlongs in well under 38 seconds. After breaking cleanly and getting into good position entering the first turn, he was soon on the lead. Never taking kickback, he got into a good rhythm in the backstretch and showed formidable tactical speed and endurance from there on to win by 13 1/2 lengths. This kind of effort would win most any Kentucky Derby in my estimation.

The next day trainer Pletcher said Fierceness recovered quickly, and he talked about upcoming plans. “I have to do some more research. As I understand it, Churchill has a new rule this year that you have to be on the grounds the Saturday before the Derby. So, you have to be on the grounds for a week,” said Pletcher.

“He had his final breeze for the Florida Derby eight days before the race. I moved it up one day because we had that rain coming, and we were able to get it in before the rain. If I were to have his final breeze eight days out, that gives me some options. If his final breeze is seven days out that locks you into committing to do it at Churchill. We’ve got to think that through a little bit.”

A loyal and knowledgeable subscriber contacted me the day after the race and mentioned Bellamy Road's 17 1/2-length victory in the Wood Memorial 19 years ago (Scrappy T and Naughty New Yorker were in that field) and Sinister Minister's front-running, 12 3/4-length blowout of the Toyota Blue Grass the following year (facing among others Strong Contender, Bluegrass Cat and First Samurai). Neither horse made a dent in the Derby. My friend said Saturday looked different as Fierceness was eased through the stretch and had plenty left in the tank.

After Forte's late scratch by a state veterinarian shortly before last year's Kentucky Derby, a win by Fierceness would provide a storybook ending for Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher -- and a boost to an event that in the last five years has seen better days.

We've had a winner who was disqualified in a controversial stewards' ruling that arguably defied state regulations and whose trainer later agreed to a prison sentence for cheating with drugs (2019), a Derby run in front of 6,000 people in the month of September (2020), a winner that tested positive for a substance banned on race day and whose disqualification was accompanied by almost three years of litigation (2021), an 80-1 winner that has never won again and that was so wild post-race he repeatedly tried to bite the lead pony and outrider while being led to the winner's circle (2022), and a 15-1 winner that was credible despite having raced only three times but that failed to win another race after the Derby before being retired (2023).

As pointed out by my friend, the last horse to win a big Derby prep race the way Fierceness did it was Maximum Security, my pick to win that ill-fated 2019 Derby. And win he did only to be disqualified.

Fierceness was awarded a 110 Beyer figure, and his gallop-out saw him remain far in front of the field. Catalytic earned a 90, Grand Mo the First an 87 and Conquest Warrior an 86.

There are at least three big questions at this point. Will Fierceness bounce next time out? Will he maintain his weight? And will he be able to deal with adversity in the crowded field of the Kentucky Derby.

Weight loss would probably lead to a bounce. There has to be a way to get a reliable gauge on this talented colt's weight as the Kentucky Derby approaches.

Aside from the dreaded bounce, the fundamental question that remains for Fierceness is whether he can overcome adversity. He's had his problems, but if he gets a Barbaro-like trip in the Derby, the adversity question could become a moot point in two minutes as long as he's fit.

The top three finishers in the Florida Derby pretty much ran a merry-go-round, except that the merry-go-round broke in half behind Fierceness like something from the climax of Hitchcock's "Strangers On A Train."

We could ask ourselves "Who did he beat," and the answer might be "Not much," but I don't see that point of view as being necessarily helpful. The reason these preps exist is to separate the wheat from the chaff, and man did we see a big sickle in the Florida Derby.

Fierceness

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.06 (first)
1/2 mile -- :47.50 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.31 (first)
1 mile -- 1:35.63 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.22 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.06
second 1/4 mile -- :23.44
third 1/4 mile -- :23.81
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.32
final 1/8 mile -- :12.59
final 3/8 mile -- :36.91

Catalytic

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.36 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.70 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.61 (second)
1 mile -- 1:37.23 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.92 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.36
second 1/4 mile -- :23.34
third 1/4 mile -- :23.91
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.62
final 1/8 mile -- :13.69
final 3/8 mile -- :39.31

Grand Mo the First

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.41 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.80 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.61 (third)
1 mile -- 1:37.83 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.42 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.41
second 1/4 mile -- :23.39
third 1/4 mile -- :23.81
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.22
final 1/8 mile -- :13.59
final 3/8 mile -- :39.81


March 30
UAE Derby Comments and Fractions

Forever Young is now five-for-five after winning the UAE Derby. Upon reviews of the video, after breaking from the outside post 11 he got into stalking position a couple of lengths behind give or take a length, although four to five wide entering both turns with while in fifth or fourth position; moved into third as they headed home; and overtook Auto Bahn, one of the two pacesetters, 200 meters from the finish line. Forever Young drew off to win by two lengths over Auto Bahn, with Pandagate another 4 3/4 lengths back in third, Mendelssohn Bay beaten 7 3/4 lengths in fourth and Navy Seal fifth by a total of 8 1/4 lengths.

Forever Young was kept to the outside, avoiding kickback the entire trip. He galloped out ahead of the field, bounding along no worse for the wear into the middle of the first turn at the close of the video.

After the race Forever Young's owner Susumu Fujita said, "We will go to America." The 50 Kentucky Derby points for finishing second will go unused as Auto Bahn is a South American-bred and not eligible for the Kentucky Derby because he is a 4-year-old under North American rules.

The distance of the UAE Derby is 1900 meters, or 6234 feet, which is 36 feet shorter than 1 3/16 mile. The final time was 1:57.89. The Meydan track record for the distance is 1:55:18 and belongs to Mendelssohn, who won the UAE Derby six years ago.

Of 14 runnings of the UAE Derby since the distance was upped to 1 3/16 mile from nine furlongs, Forever Young's time is the sixth fastest. Mendelssohn ran approximately 13 lengths faster than Forever Young.

The track may not have been playing all that fast. Two Rivers Over won the Godolphin Mile in 1:37.49. Upset winner Laurel River won the UAE Derby (about 1 1/4 mile) in 2:02.31. The track record for that distance is 2:01.38 set by Thunder Snow the same year Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby. However, the 2024 Al Quoz Sprint (about six furlongs) was won in 1:07.50, a new track record breaking the mark of 1:07.61 set by Wildman Jack in July 2020.

Here are times for the UAE Derby in the 10 preceding years and the Kentucky Derby result: Derma Sotogake (2023, 1:55.81, sixth), Crown Pride (2022, 1:59.76, thirteenth), Rebel's Romance (2021, 1:56.28, NA), race canceled (2020), Plus Que Parfait (2019, 1:58.41, eighth), Mendelssohn (2018, 1:55.18, twentieth), Thunder Snow (2017, 1:57.76, DNF), Lani (2016, 1:58.41, ninth), Mubtaahij (2015, 1:58.35, eighth), Toast of New York (2014, 1:57.92, NA).

After 1,500 meters of this year's UAE Derby, the horses were at the top of the quarter-mile-long stretch and Forever Young was second, about three-quarter lengths back of Auto Bahn. At 1,600 meters, Forever Young was about one-half length off the lead. At 1,700 meters, he led. Here are the pace times at those and other points based on my estimates, which are very close if not dead on.

400 meters (about two furlongs): 24.70
800 meters (about four furlongs): 49.00
1,200 meters (about six furlongs): 1:14.90
1,400 meters (about seven furlongs): 1:27.20
1,500 meters (about 7 1/2 furlongs) 1:33.60 (Forever Young three-quarters length back)
1,600 meters (about one mile): 1:39.50 (Forever Young one-half length back)
1700 meters (about 8 1/2 furlongs): 1:45.40 (Forever Young led)
1800 meters (about nine furlongs): 1:51.50
1900 meters (about 1 3/16 mile: 1:57.89 (final time)

This was not a fast-run race. The pace after about six furlongs was 1:14.90, so Forever Young was a little over 1:15. He ran the first 1 1/6 mile in 1:45.40. To his credit, he finished the final quarter-mile in a touch over 24 1/5, the final eighth-mile in 12.49 and the final sixteenth-mile in 6.39. In the stretch, Forever Young was motoring. Before that, not so much.

Here are three "ifs to consider. If there is much pace in the Kentucky Derby, and if Forever Young runs these kinds of fractions, and if at the top of the Churchill Downs stretch the leader has gotten the first mile in 1:36 and change, Forever Young would find himself about 15 lengths off the pace with a quarter-mile remaining in the race.

Here's a link to UAE Derby video where you can see some of the race milestones I've cited superimposed on the track.

March 30
Arkansas Derby Comments and Fractions

After looking at Equibase figures I suspected the Arkansas Derby might have been a sneaky-good race, and then I looked at the Beyers and my own figures. I conclude this race was excellent.

The Beyers are not very inspiring. Muth, who can't run in the Kentucky Derby, got a 98 Beyer figure (compared to a 110 Beyer for Fierceness in the Florida Derby), followed by Just Steel at 95, Mystik Dan 89 and Timberlake 88.

In contrast, Equibase awarded Muth a 115 speed figure (compared to an Equibase figure of 110 for Fierceness in the Florida Derby), Just Steel 112, Mystik Dan 106 and Timberlake 105.

Running my own numbers, all of the top four finishers in the Arkansas Derby get credit for 12s (running within one second of averaging 12 seconds per furlong in at least three calls), and three of those four finished the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less.

In turn, those numbers reminded me of the 2005 Santa Anita Derby. The top four, in order of finish, were....

1 Buzzard's Bay (30-1) 23.70, 47.32, 1:11.34, 1:36.45, 1:49.18
2 General John B (64-1) 23.70, 47.36, 1:11.38, 1:36.49, 1:49.28
3 Wilko (7-2) 24.05, 47.32 1:11.59, 1:36.80, 1:49.30
4 Giacomo (7-2) 24.35, 48.32 1:12.11, 1:36.85, 1:49.58

All four of them ran 12s, and all four finished in under 38 seconds. Buzzards Bay was given a 114 Equibase figure, and Giacomo got a 111. Giacomo went on to win the Kentucky Derby at 50-1 odds. Buzzards Bay was fifth at 46-1 odds.

It could have turned out differently, but that's racing. Afleet Alex's jockey chose the rail in the stretch, but it was a slower path that day, and the favorite missed winning by a length. The jockey blamed himself for the loss. Undaunted, connections ran Afleet Alex in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes and won both. But the point is, that was a very strong race that produced all three of the Triple Crown wins.

Just Steel is an enigma to me. He runs a lot and you never know what you're going to get. One thing is clear to me, though, and it is that Just Steel and Muth got significantly better trips than Mystik Dan, who lost 2 1/2 lengths of ground in the second quarter-mile when Liberal Arts (the 5 horse) bolted mid-race.

The chart describes the incident in mild terms. "LIBERAL ARTS back off the early pace while between horses into the first turn, very rank late in that bend, got out to bother a pair of outer rivals, two to four wide second turn, evenly through the stretch..... MYSTIK DAN in mid pack outside in the first turn, slight bother and carried out four wide onto the backstretch, made a mild advance while four wide in the second bend, stalled a bit in the drive but managed to be up late for the show, no match for the top two."

Timberlake was a little hard for his jockey to handle, or at least that's what jockey Prat said, and faded late. The horse jumped into the lead when Time for Truth didn't go on with it after the first quarter-mile, and it might have taken too much out of him. After Timberlake lost the lead, I was surprised when he faded to not second or third, but fourth after Mystik Dan got by him late.

Muth

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.53 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.56 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.30 (second)
1 mile -- 1:37.25 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.54 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.53
second 1/4 mile -- :24.03
third 1/4 mile -- :24.74
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.95
final 1/8 mile -- :12.29
final 3/8 mile -- :37.24

Just Steel

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.83 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.76 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.46 (third)
1 mile -- 1:37.65 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.94 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.83
second 1/4 mile -- :23.93
third 1/4 mile -- :24.70
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.19
final 1/8 mile -- :12.29
final 3/8 mile -- :37.48

Mystik Dan

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.18 (eighth)
1/2 mile -- :48.71 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.91 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:37.95 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.79 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.18
second 1/4 mile -- :24.53
third 1/4 mile -- :24.20
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.04
final 1/8 mile -- :12.84
final 3/8 mile -- :37.88

Timberlake

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.73 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.46 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.26 (first)
1 mile -- 1:37.55 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.89 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.73
second 1/4 mile -- :23.73
third 1/4 mile -- :24.80
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.29
final 1/8 mile -- :13.34
final 3/8 mile -- :38.63

April 6

1 1/8 Mile Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland

Sierra Leone was awarded a 98 Beyer Speed Rating. He gets credit for running 12-second furlongs and finishing in under 38 seconds. Second finisher Just a Touch also gets credit for running 12s, but he finished a more slowly (just over 39) after attending fast early fractions.

We were at Keeneland. All my buddy could talk about all day was Sierra Leone, and all day long the dirt races were a repeat of Friday. It was the Keeneland of old where winning on dirt was all about being on or near the lead. Out-footed early? Done. Miss the break a little? Done. Before the Blue Grass I said, "Ron, there is no way Sierra Leone can win this race from 10 lengths off the pace." And he didn't. He came from about nine lengths off the pace.

There was only one other Keeneland dirt race at two turns Saturday (race 1), and yes, that winner didn't lead all the way. In fact, he was sixth early -- and he was three lengths off the pace after a half-mile. But Sierra Leone was 8 3/4 lengths behind at that call.

At this point the son of Gun Runner looks like he's worth every bit of the $2.3 million it took to buy him. Sloppy track? Oh yeah. Fast track? Yep again. Closer against a speed bias? No worries. Run a big race after four weeks of rest? Wait, he hasn't done that this year. But he did it last year.

So we will watch workouts and try to see if he's holding his flesh and so forth. But right now he looks like the UConn of 3-year-olds, meaning there might be only a couple of teams in the nation that have a chance of running better regardless of the game plan.

I didn't count on my fingers and toes, but it seemed like the gate crew tried to load Sierra Leone about 10 times. Ordinarily you would think the horse would not benefit from going through that. But again, no problem for him. What if he loads like a gentleman in the Kentucky Derby? What if he falls apart? Food for thought.

As the horse balked and balked and balked, it crossed my mind the wait was unfair to the rest of the horses, all of whom were to his inside. If the delay had gone on much longer, I suspect the field would have been backed out of their stalls and reloaded. No way was Sierra Leone going to be scratched. But in retrospect, maybe the long wait didn't matter because Sierra Leone looked destined to win.

After the Blue Grass I heard a turf writer in the press box say there was a million-dollar rabbit in the race. He was referring to Top Conor, who was shipped in from Florida off of one career start. That came at Gulfstream Park where he won a Feb. 17 one-mile maiden special weight by two lengths under Jose Ortiz. Top Conor's trainer is Chad Brown, who also conditions Sierra Leone. If there is common ownership between the two horses, it doesn't show at Equbase.

Just a Touch made his two-turn debut in a grade 1 and ran an awesome race. I knew he would overtake Top Conor as they headed for the top of the stretch, and I thought he might have it won until I glanced to my left and saw Sierra Leone chugging toward the front. Watcing the race on video, it took Just a Touch longer to get by Top Conor than I perceived while watching live, and it also appears he was a bit late changing leads. Once he did he ran on, but the momentum belonged to the winner.

Like Sierra Leone, Just a Touch has already shown he can compete on an off track, and added distance should be no problem for this son of Justify out of a Tapit mare. Furthermore, he stands to improve going two turns for the second time in the Kentucky Derby.

Epic Ride needs defections to make the Derby. Like the top two, he gets credit for running 12s. He didn't come close to finishing in 38 seconds or less.

Per both the chart and his trainer, Dornoch was keen into the first turn and he got in a bit tight. Without the lead maybe he was thrown off his game. Trainer Gargan said he'd be on the lead and/or run better next time. The biggest disappointment in the race, Dornoch did not run 12s or finish in under 38 seconds.

Video of the gallop-out shows Sierra Leone and Just a Touch on even terms.

April 14 Postscript: I saw a reference to this on Twitter a few days ago and today had time to pull up the Blue Grass head-on, which confirms the tweet referencing that Sierra Leone paddles his left foreleg. It can be seen clearly during the stretch run. It's a bit unnerving to see a $2.3 million purchase run that way. Not that every horse has perfect motion, because they don't, and some very good ones succeed despite this way of moving. Vekoma (won the 2029 Blue Grass at 7-5 odds, was 12th in the Kentucky Derby at 16-1, went on to win two grade 1s in his last three starts) and Archarcharch (won the 2011 Arkansas Derby but was 15th in the Kentucky Derby after drawing the rail, did not race again) come to mind. One has to wonder if the horse is bothered by it and whether it's the reason for his extreme reluctance to load in the Blue Grass.

That thought led me to wonder if the paddling was something new, which could explain that reluctance but which seemed highly unlikely, and it's not. A review of the Risen Star shows the same thing. It's hard to know what to make of it. At this time of year we have to be wary of overreacting to every little thing, but at the same time we need to be aware.

Sierra Leone

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.60 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :48.23 (ninth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.13 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:37.15 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.08 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.60
second 1/4 mile -- :23.63
third 1/4 mile -- :23.90
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.02
final 1/8 mile -- :12.93
final 3/8 mile -- :37.95

Just a Touch

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.35 (second)
1/2 mile -- :46.68 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.23 (second)
1 mile -- 1:36.65 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.38 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.35
second 1/4 mile -- :23.33
third 1/4 mile -- :24.55
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.42
final 1/8 mile -- :13.73
final 3/8 mile -- :39.15

Epic Ride

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.49 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :46.88 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.13 (third)
1 mile -- 1:36.85 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.13 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.49
second 1/4 mile -- :23.39
third 1/4 mile -- :24.25
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.72
final 1/8 mile -- :14.28
final 3/8 mile -- :40.00

Dornoch

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.45 (third)
1/2 mile -- :46.92 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.33 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:37.45 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.38 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.45
second 1/4 mile -- :23.47
third 1/4 mile -- :24.41
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.12
final 1/8 mile -- :13.93
final 3/8 mile -- :40.05

April 6

1 1/8 Mile Wood Memorial, Aqueduct

Resilience got a 90 Beyer winning the Wood. He gets credit for running 12-second furlongs, and he finished in slightly under 38 seconds.

With blinkers added by Bill Mott, and running on the outside of horses from post 1 with the help of an expert ride by John Velazquez, Resliience ran a career-best race. Connections say he doesn't like being inside of horses, something to remember when post positions are drawn for the Derby. That Beyer figure is just okay, but let's not forget Resilience has an uninterrupted string of ascending Beyers in his six career races, to wit: 57, 76, 79, 80, 85 and now 90.

Resilience is by the outstanding sire Into Mischief. In the Risen Star Sierra Leone beat him by only 3 1/2 lengths. It is possible the added distance of the Derby will benefit Resilience, but he probably needs to draw outsidish and get a forward trip.

Society Man was deservingly sent off at 106-1 odds and blew up a $2 exacta payoff worth $742. I expect his odds to be very high again in the Kentucky Derby. He ran 12s, and I'm giving him credit for finishing in 38 seconds. He seems like a complete write-off in the Derby, but then again Rich Strike won the race at 80-1 odds two years ago.

The gallop-out showed me something I didn't expect. Society Man easily outran Resilience. What a form upgrade for this Danny Gargan trainee.

Resilience

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.65 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.89 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.51 (third)
1 mile -- 1:37.35 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.28 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.65
second 1/4 mile -- :24.24
third 1/4 mile -- :24.62
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.84
final 1/8 mile -- :12.93
final 3/8 mile -- :37.77

Society Man

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.00 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :48.39 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.71 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:37.85 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.73 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.00
second 1/4 mile -- :24.39
third 1/4 mile -- :24.32
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.14
final 1/8 mile -- :12.88
final 3/8 mile -- :38.02


April 6

1 1/8 Mile Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita

Stronghold was given an 89 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby. He gets 12s but finished in over 38 seconds.

Stronghold bested Bob Baffert trainee Imagination, who is not eligible for the Kentucky Derby barring court intervention, by a neck in an effort that was not particularly engaging for me visually.

His Beyer matched the 89 he was given in the Sunland Derby, which he won by 2 1/2 lengths against lesser company.

The most positive thing I noticed was Stronghold and Imagination galloping out together far past the finish line.

Stronghold

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.22 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.23 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.30 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:36.88 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.98 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.22
second 1/4 mile -- :24.01
third 1/4 mile -- :24.07
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.58
final 1/8 mile -- :13.10
final 3/8 mile -- :38.68