Every year we examine fractions in the nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep races, with emphasis on (1) whether horses finished the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less; and (2) whether horses ran 12-second furlongs, or what we call "12's" at three of the five calls or better. See Section 7 for more information about "12's". Horses with these abilities do well in the Kentucky Derby. Usually it's better if a horse can run "12's" AND finish in 38 seconds or less in the same race.

BOURBONIC - WOOD MEMORIAL

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :26.58 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :52.28 (ninth)
3/4 mile -- 1:16.63 (ninth)
1 mile -- 1:41.36 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:54.49 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :26.58
second 1/4 mile -- :25.70
third 1/4 mile -- :24.35
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.73
final 1/8 mile -- :13.13
final 3/8 mile -- :37.87

He finished in under 38 seconds. He did not run "12's". Times were very slow all day at Aqueduct on Wood Memorial day. We note that Bourbonic really picked it up after a dawdling first quarter-mile, and he made a furious stretch run on the outside to nail stablemate Dynamic One in the shadow of the wire.

The gallop-out: Bourbonic galloped out with energy well ahead of the remainder of the field. Crowded Trade (third) and Weyburn (fourth) were alone in the second flight. Dynamic One was reined in shortly after the finish, perhaps to save him for the next race.

Bourbonic earned an 89 Beyer in the Wood Memorial.

BROOKLYN STRONG - WOOD MEMORIAL

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.48 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :50.68 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:15.43 (sixth)
1 mile -- 1:41.46 (seventh)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:55.45 (fifth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.48
second 1/4 mile -- :25.20
third 1/4 mile -- :24.75
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.03
final 1/8 mile -- :13.99
final 3/8 mile -- :40.02

He didn't run 12-second furlongs or finish in 38 seconds or less.

He wasn't in the picture in the gallop-out.

Beyer was 82.

DYNAMIC ONE - WOOD MEMORIAL

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.58 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :50.98 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:15.38 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:40.76 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:54.51 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.58
second 1/4 mile -- :25.40
third 1/4 mile -- :24.40
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.38
final 1/8 mile -- :13.75
final 3/8 mile -- :39.13

He did not run "12's" and did not finish in 38 or less. He lacks focus to some extent -- note how his positions at the calls bounce around -- and he apparently relaxes too much if he gets a late lead. His jockey said after the race he hoped the pace would carry him a bit closer to the finish line before he got the lead.

The gallop-out: Bourbonic galloped out with energy well ahead of the remainder of the field. Crowded Trade (third) and Weyburn (fourth) were alone in the second flight. Dynamic One was reined in shortly after the finish, perhaps to save him for the next race.

He earned an 89 Beyer in the Wood Memorial.

ESSENTIAL QUALITY - TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.03 (second)
1/2 mile -- :48.31 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.18 (second)
1 mile -- 1:36.07 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.50 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.03
second 1/4 mile -- :24.28
third 1/4 mile -- :23.87
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.89
final 1/8 mile -- :12.43
final 3/8 mile -- :36.32 (corrected)

He got "12's" at all five calls, and he finished in under 38 seconds. In my opinion, this was a strong prep race, and Essential Quality answered the call when the chips were down in the stretch, passing Highly Motivated in the final jumps.

The gallop-out: Highly Motivated galloped out just a touch in front of Essential Quality, followed closely by Rombauer. They "essentially" galloped out as a group.

The Beyer folks gave Essential Quality a 97 for the Blue Grass. He got a 96 in the Southwest Stakes.

HELIUM - TAMPA BAY DERBY

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.58 (tenth)
1/2 mile -- :47.66 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:1 1.58 (second)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:43.55 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.58
second 1/4 mile -- :23.08
third 1/4 mile -- :23.92
final 5/16 mile -- :31.97

Helium has not run in a nine-furlong race. One day after the Tampa Bay Derby, it was announced he'd wait for the Kentucky Derby. In this 8.5-furlong race, for what it's worth, he ran "12's", and his sub-32 second finish was not too bad. He repelled a charge from the late-running Hidden Stash to win.

The gallop-out: A nano-second of video after the wire shows Helium a bit in front during the gallop-out toward the first turn.

Helium got an 84 Beyer in Tampa.


HIDDEN STASH - TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.78 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :48.86 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.98 (fifth)
1 mile -- 1:37.27 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.50 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.78
second 1/4 mile -- :24.08
third 1/4 mile -- :24.12
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.29
final 1/8 mile -- :13.23
final 3/8 mile -- :37.52

This might have been a sneaky good race, because he did run "12's" at three of the five calls, and he finished in under 38 seconds.

The gallop-out: Highly Motivated galloped out just a touch in front of Essential Quality, followed closely by Rombauer. They "essentially" galloped out as a group. Hidden Stash is behind them but cannot be seen on the replay.

His Blue Grass Beyer is 82.


HIGHLY MOTIVATED - TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.83 (first)
1/2 mile -- :48.21 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.08 (first)
1 mile -- 1:35.97 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.54 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.83
second 1/4 mile -- :24.38
third 1/4 mile -- :23.87
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.89
final 1/8 mile -- :12.57
final 3/8 mile -- :36.46

Just like Essential Quality, he got "12's" at all five calls, and he finished in under 38 seconds. I say again: In my opinion, this was a strong prep race. Highly Motivated had far less experience at two turns than Essential Quality -- in fact, this was his first time going two turns -- and he almost pulled off the win.

The gallop-out: Highly Motivated galloped out just a touch in front of Essential Quality, followed closely by Rombauer. They "essentially" galloped out as a group.

After finishing on near-even terms with Essential Quality, Highly Motivated picked up a 97 Beyer in the Blue Grass.


HOT ROD CHARLIE - LOUISIANA DERBY (1 3/16 mile)

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.12 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.04 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.25 (first)
1 mile -- 1:36.38 (first)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:55.06 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.12
second 1/4 mile -- :23.92
third 1/4 mile -- :24.21
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.13
final 3/16 mile -- :18.68
(conservative extrapolated final 3/8 mile if race were 1 1/8 mile = 37.58)

In this 1 3/16-mile race, Hot Rod Charlie ran "12's" at all calls; plus he finished in a manner consistent with getting less than 38 seconds if the race had been nine furlongs. A very nice effort.

The gallop-out: O Besos out-galloped Hot Rod Charlie by just a bit, followed a few lengths back by Midnight Bourbon.

Hot Rod Charlie's Louisiana Derby Beyer Speed Figure was 99.

KEEPMEINMIND - TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.58 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :48.61 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.48 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:37.57 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.50 (fifth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.58
second 1/4 mile -- :24.03
third 1/4 mile -- :23.87
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.09
final 1/8 mile -- :12.93
final 3/8 mile -- :38.02

He ran "12's" at three of the five calls, so he gets credit for that. He was six wide in the first turn. We also give him credit for finishing in 38 seconds or less. Don't know how he did that - he looked leg-weary in the stretch. Could be the top two were just that good.

The gallop-out: He was not a factor in the gallop-out.

His Beyer from the Blue Grass isn't available as of this post.

KING FURY - STONESTREET LEXINGTON STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.49 (eighth)
1/2 mile -- :47.77 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.80 (fourth)
1 1/16 mile -- 1:43.50 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.49
second 1/4 mile -- :23.28
third 1/4 mile -- :24.03
final 5/16 mile -- :31.70

Okay, it's not a nine-furlong race. However, King Fury was, in my opinion, visually impressive much like Charismatic was when he used this race as a springboard to win the Kentucky Derby. Accordingly, I wanted to examine the fractions. This was King Fury's first race off a long layoff -- in fact, it was his first race of the year. He ran "12's" and still finished up pretty well. He's bred to go longer and will be an interesting prospect should he make the Derby starting gate.

The gallop-out: On brief video at twinspires.com, King Fury can be seen initially showing the way by a couple of lengths in the gallop-out; and going into the first turn, separating himself from the field.

In this, his first start of 2021, King Fury was given a 95 Beyer.

KNOWN AGENDA - CURLIN FLORIDA DERBY

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.33 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :48.33 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.79 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:36.61 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.45 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.33
second 1/4 mile -- :24.00
third 1/4 mile -- :24.46
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.82
final 1/8 mile -- :12.84
final 3/8 mile -- :36.66

Known Agenda ran "12's" at four of five calls and finished in well under 38 seconds. As the chart says, he "burst clear" to open up in the stretch and defeated pacesetter Soup and Sandwich by 2 3/4 lengths. Note that he ran the fourth quarter-mile faster than the preceding quarters; he must be a good at running on the turn.

The gallop-out: Known Agenda, Soup and Sandwich and Greatest Honour all galloped out moderately but ahead of the rest of the field. The NBC video did do justice to this part of the event.

Known Agenda earned a 94 Beyer for this effort, indicating the track was playing a bit fast on the big day. But still an impressive race.



LIKE THE KING - JEFF RUBY STEAKS (synthetic surface)

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.13 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :48.31 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.40 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:37.53 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.22 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.13
second 1/4 mile -- :24.18
third 1/4 mile -- :24.09
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.13
final 1/8 mile -- :12.69
final 3/8 mile -- :37.82

He gets credit for "12's" and for finishing up in less than 38 seconds. As Like the King outfinished Hockey Dad, Sainthood came galloping from the clouds to get second.

Aside from Animal Kingdom in 2011, it's been a long, long time since the Jeff Ruby (aka Spiral, Lane's End, galleryfurniture.com) has produced a Kentucky Derby winner. We will watch how Like the King trains up to the Derby.

The gallop-out: Like the King led the gallop-out, with Hockey Dad outrunning Sainthood past the wire.

Cloud runner Like the King earned an 86 Beyer in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

MANDALOUN - RISEN STAR STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.95 (third)
1/2 mile -- :48.85 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.94 (third)
1 mile -- 1:37.60 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.39 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.95
second 1/4 mile -- :24.90
third 1/4 mile -- :24.09
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.66
final 1/8 mile -- :12.79
final 3/8 mile -- :37.45

MANDALOUN - LOUISIANA DERBY (1 3/16 mile)

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.20 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.34 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.65 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:37.58 (fifth)
1 3/16mile -- 1:57.41 (sixth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.20
second 1/4 mile -- :24.14
third 1/4 mile -- :24.31
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.93
final 3/16 mile -- :19.83
(conservative extrapolated final 3/8 mile if race were 1 1/8 mile = 39.15)

Mandaloun was the star of the Risen Star (ran "12's", finished in under 38), only to flop in the Louisiana Derby. From that perspective, he looks like the 2021 version of War of Will (2019).

War of Will got strong backing from some in-the-know people in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, but he lacked kick in the stretch drive. Of course, his backers blamed it on the horse that won, Maximum Security. His detractors, and I am one of them, saw him run right up Maximum Security's butt before that one veered out, and we saw 'Max' outrun War of Will and everything else that was lined up when they straightened for home. That debate will never be resolved. War of Will won the Preakness off a perfect setup. After that, he was victorious only once in eight starts, although that one win was the prestigious Grade I Maker's Mark Mile. Being by War Front, he was bred to like turf.

Mandaloun, the mystery horse of the 2021 Derby?

Gallop-outs: In the Louisiana Derby, O Besos out-galloped Hot Rod Charlie by just a bit, followed a few lengths back by Midnight Bourbon. Mandaloun can't be seen in video of the gallop-out.  In the Risen Star, Mandaloun was slightly ahead of Midnight Bourbon and Proxy in the gallop-out. O Besos was a few lengths behind those three.

His Risen Star Beyer was 98, but he only got an 82 in the Louisiana Derby.

MEDINA SPIRIT - SANTA ANITA DERBY

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.74 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :46.31 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.04 (third)
1 mile -- 1:36.77 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.02 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.74
second 1/4 mile -- :23.57
third 1/4 mile -- :24.73
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.73
final 1/8 mile -- :13.25
final 3/8 mile -- :38.98

Did not run "12's" or finish in 38 or less. He's a tough knocker and has outperformed his two sale prices ($1,000 at the first sale, $35,000 at the second one.) He was picked out at the second sale by bloodstock agent and professional clocker Gary Young, whom I see in the clockers' stand at Churchill Downs every year the weekend before the Derby. Gary is a funny guy and livens things up. That said, this horse will be right there when they turn for home, but can he outlast foes in the final quarter-mile?

The gallop-out: After Rock Your World drew off to win the Santa Anita Derby, he was in his own zip code during the gallop-out, and he returned to be unsaddled with his ears pricked. The other runners cannot be seen during the gallop-out in two different videos I saw showing the gallop-out.

He ran a 94 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis, a 95 Beyer in the San Felipe, and a 94 in the Santa Anita Derby.

MIDNIGHT BOURBON - RISEN STAR STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.75 (second)
1/2 mile -- :48.55 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.76 (second)
1 mile -- 1:37.60 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.74 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.75
second 1/4 mile -- :24.80
third 1/4 mile -- :24.21
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.84
final 1/8 mile -- :13.14
final 3/8 mile -- :37.98

MIDNIGHT BOURBON - LOUISIANA DERBY (1 3/16 mile)

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.12 (first)
1/2 mile -- :47.14 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.45 (second)
1 mile -- 1:36.48 (second)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:55.46 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.12
second 1/4 mile -- :24.02
third 1/4 mile -- :24.31
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.03
final 3/16 mile -- :18.98
(conservative extrapolated final 3/8 mile if race were 1 1/8 mile = 37.68)

Midnight Bourbon has the distinction of being the only horse in this group that has run "12's" and finished in under 38 seconds twice on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He's not dominant horse by any means, but he's been a model of consistency.

The gallop-out: In the Louisiana Derby,  O Besos out-galloped Hot Rod Charlie by just a bit, followed a few lengths back by Midnight Bourbon. Mandaloun can't be seen in video of the gallop-out.  In the Risen Star, Mandaloun was slightly ahead of Midnight Bourbon and Proxy in the gallop-out. O Besos was a few lengths behind those three.

Midnight Bourbon got 96 Beyers in both the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star.


O BESOS - RISEN STAR STAKES

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.45 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :49.45 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.94 (fifth)
1 mile -- 1:38.50 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.89 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.45
second 1/4 mile -- :25.00
third 1/4 mile -- :24.49
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.56
final 1/8 mile -- :13.39
final 3/8 mile -- :37.95

O BESOS - LOUISIANA DERBY (1 3/16 mile)

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.45 (eighth)
1/2 mile -- :48.44 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.30 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:37.08 (fourth)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:55.48 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.45
second 1/4 mile -- :23.99
third 1/4 mile -- :23.86
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.78
final 3/16 mile -- :18.40
(conservative extrapolated final 3/8 mile if race were 1 1/8 mile = 37.05)

He ran "12's" in the Louisiana Derby and finished in less than 38 seconds in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. He looks like an improving type.

The gallop-out: In the Louisiana Derby, O Besos out-galloped Hot Rod Charlie by just a bit, followed a few lengths back by Midnight Bourbon. Mandaloun can't be seen in video of the gallop-out.  In the Risen Star, Mandaloun was slightly ahead of Midnight Bourbon and Proxy in the gallop-out. O Besos was a few lengths behind those three.

After earning an 88 in the Risen Star, he was given a 96 Beyer for his performance in the Louisiana Derby.

ROCK YOUR WORLD - SANTA ANITA DERBY

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.42 (first)
1/2 mile -- :46.11 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.94 (first)
1 mile -- 1:36.27 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.17 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.42
second 1/4 mile -- :23.69
third 1/4 mile -- :24.83
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.33
final 1/8 mile -- :12.90
final 3/8 mile -- :38.23

Rock Your World didn't run "12's" or finish in 38 seconds or less, but he did employ tactics that have become a model for winning the Kentucky Derby in recent years. See Section 7. He sprinted to the lead, then moderated and dictated the pace while others were unable to pass him after the fast opening stanza.

The gallop-out: After Rock Your World drew off to win the Santa Anita Derby, he was in his own zip code during the gallop-out, and he returned to be unsaddled with his ears pricked. The other runners cannot be seen during the gallop-out in two different videos I saw showing the gallop-out.

He is the sole possessor of a triple-digit Beyer in the 2021 Kentucky Derby field after getting a 100 in the Santa Anita Derby.

SAINTHOOD - JEFF RUBY STEAKS

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.33 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.51 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.10 (sixth)
1 mile -- 1:37.93 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.44 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.33
second 1/4 mile -- :24.18
third 1/4 mile -- :24.59
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.83
final 1/8 mile -- :12.51
final 3/8 mile -- :38.34

Very lightly-raced one ran "12's" but did not finish in 38 or less. As Like the King outfinished Hockey Dad to get the win, Sainthood came galloping from the clouds to get second. Sainthood''s race position looks like a bell curve. He actually led the field to the finish line first time by and was second at the first call; was passed by a couple of horses going up the backstretch; was passed by two more horses going into the far turn; was roused to the outside leaving the turn; was blocked and steadied in upper stretch; and rallied again on the outside once clear. It was, as the chart call says, "a gallant effort."

The gallop-out: Like the King led the gallop-out, with Hockey Dad outrunning Sainthood past the wire.

Sainthood earned an 84 Beyer in the Jeff Ruby.

SOUP AND SANDWICH - CURLIN FLORIDA DERBY

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.53 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.73 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.29 (first)
1 mile -- 1:36.91 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.00 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.53
second 1/4 mile -- :24.20
third 1/4 mile -- :24.56
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.62
final 1/8 mile -- :13.09
final 3/8 mile -- :37.71

Soup and Sandwich gets credit for "12's" and for finishing in under 38 seconds, but it should be noted Known Agenda finished several lengths faster than Soup and Sandwich. Regardless, it was a nice effort.

The gallop-out: Known Agenda, Soup and Sandwich and Greatest Honour all galloped out moderately but ahead of the rest of the field. The NBC video did do justice to this part of the event.

Soup and Sandwich earned a 90 Beyer in Tampa.


SUPER STOCK - ARKANSAS DERBY

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.92 (third)
1/2 mile -- :46.91 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.65 (third)
1 mile -- 1:37.74 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.92 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.92
second 1/4 mile -- :23.99
third 1/4 mile -- :24.74
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.09
final 1/8 mile -- :13.18
final 3/8 mile -- :39.27

He did not run "12's" or finish in 38 seconds or less. His opening quarter-mile was fast but not grossly fast; he enjoyed moderate fractions in the second and third quarters, but he finished slowly to get the win, but not as slow as the two pacesetters, Caddo River and Concert Tour.

The gallop-out: After the momentum of his stretch run, such as it was, I expected Super Stock to draw away from Caddo River and Concert Tour past the wire, but instead they ran on pretty much together.

Super Stock was awarded a career-best 92 Beyer after overtaking the slowing-down Caddo River and Concert Tour.