Fractions, Finishes, Commentary, Beyers

Kentucky Derby Prep Races
  Last updated April 11, 2022  

Every year we examine fractions in the nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep races, with emphasis on (1) whether horses finished the final 3/8 mile in 38 seconds or less; and (2) whether horses ran 12-second furlongs, or what we call "12's" at three of the five calls or better. See Section 7 for more information about "12's". Horses with these abilities do well in the Kentucky Derby. Usually it's better if a horse can run "12's" AND finish in 38 seconds or less in the same race.

By Dick Downey

Stonestreet Lexington Stakes

Tawny Port came from off the pace, never more than 3 3/4 lengths off a pace of 23.85, 48.01 and 1:12.45 set by second finisher Major General, to win by a length in 1:45.24 under Florent Geroux.

Tawny Port ran the final 5 1/6 mile in 32.34 on a track rated good. He was assigned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure.

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Zandon didn't run "12's," but he finished the final 3/8 mile in a very impressive 36.58. No wonder Corey Lanerie (aboard Smile Happy) thought the race was won turning for home. Ordinarily, he would've been right.

Smile Happy ran 12's (his third quarter-mile was just 2/100 of a second off the mark) and finished in under 38 seconds.

Zandon really, really took to this muddy track, and Smile Happy performed well on it, too. You know what they say about a good horse. They can run over anything.

Zandon overcame a difficult early trip to close for the win, aided by an excellent ride from Flavien Prat. Despite being sloppy or muddy all day, the track did not favor speed -- it played fairly, in my opinion -- and closers won some high-caliber races.

Zandon earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for his performance. I agree it was a strong effort.

The top two finishers stood out. Emmanuel, the third finisher and the third choice in the betting, finished the final 3/8 mile in 38.98. We learned the following day he is not being considered for the Kentucky Derby.

Every year after these preps you hear people say, "what did they beat." However, the purpose of these preps is to separate the best from the rest, and that's what we saw in the Blue Grass.

Zandon was shipped to a race for the second time this year and overall. Previously he finished third in the Risen Star. This was his second race of the year and fourth overall.

Smile Happy also competed in his second race of the year and fourth overall. It was the second time he's been shipped in for a race, the first being his second-place finish in the Risen Star, which has become a key race -- the top six finishers in the field of 10 were Epicenter, Smile Happy, Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, Tawny Port and Slow Down Andy 

The gallop-out belonged to Zandon. He was all by himself.

Zandon

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.04 (ninth)
1/2 mile -- :49.29 (tenth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.77 (eleventh)
1 mile -- 1:38.06 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.35 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.04
second 1/4 mile -- :24.25
third 1/4 mile -- :24.48
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.29
final 1/8 mile -- :12.29
final 3/8 mile -- :36.58

Smile Happy

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.54 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :48.69 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.02 (third)
1 mile -- 1:37.86 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.85 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.54
second 1/4 mile -- :24.15
third 1/4 mile -- :24.33
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.84
final 1/8 mile -- :12.99
final 3/8 mile -- :37.83

Santa Anita Derby

(Please note: Santa Anita revised the fractions. The revisions are reflected below. The changes did not affect this analysis.)

I was as curious about Taiba's Beyer figure as you were, and I found it was a 102. Next, I looked at Equibase figures for these three preps, and they are:

Taiba 102
Messier 99
Happy Jack 84
Zandon 107
Smile Happy 104
Mo Donegal 103
Early Voting 102
Skippylongstocking 97

Taiba ran a perfect 12's race, and Messier came close.

Taiba and Messier both finished in under 38 seconds.

The elephants in the room. Amr Zedan's corporation owns Taiba, and Zedan Racing Stables owned Medina Spirit. Bob Baffert trained both, and he trained Messier as well before his suspension. Many say Tim Yakteen, a former Baffert assistant, is now training these horses in name only.

Messier's form in the Santa Anita Derby was pretty much a clone of the form shown by Authentic, also a Baffert trainee, and Medina Spirit in the runnings of the 2020 and 2021 Santa Anita Derby.

   --Medina Spirit ran second by 4 1/4 lengths in the 2021 Santa Anita Derby after stalking the pace, never more than two lengths back in the early going. He won the Kentucky Derby on the lead in a time of 2:01.02.

   --Authentic finished second by 2 3/4 lengths in the 2020 Santa Anita Derby after stalking the pace, never more than a half-length back in the early going. He won the Kentucky Derby on the lead in 2:00.61.

This is the predicament. If Messier goes straight to the lead in the 2022 Kentucky Derby and wins, it's going to be too much to take for some folks, and it could damage the reputation of the greatest two minutes in sports.

On a less skeptical note, Taiba may be the second coming after winning the Santa Anita Derby off a single six-furlong start. It was a professional effort. If he wins the Kentucky Derby in his third start, maybe he IS the second coming. After all, he sold as a 2-year-old for $1.7 million. Regardless of our personal opinions, I think we would all agree suspicion is hanging in the air. It's too bad.

Neither Messier nor Taiba have raced outside of California. This was the second start this year for both of them and the second overall for Taiba.

In the gallop-out, Taiba led into the turn but was soon joined by Messier, both in the middle of the track. In the turn, Happy Jack ran by those two on the rail. Messier was pulled up well before Taiba, who was approaching the end of the turn when the video ends.

Taiba

Fractions (revised after Santa Anita corrections)
1/4 mile -- :22.95 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.30 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.37 (third)
1 mile -- 1:36.06 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.46 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.95
second 1/4 mile -- :24.35
third 1/4 mile -- :24.07
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.69
final 1/8 mile -- :12.40
final 3/8 mile -- :37.09

Messier

Fractions (revised after Santa Anita corrections)
1/4 mile -- :22.85 (second)
1/2 mile -- :46.90 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.07 (second)
1 mile -- 1:36.06 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.91 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.85
second 1/4 mile -- :24.05
third 1/4 mile -- :24.17
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.99
final 1/8 mile -- :12.85
final 3/8 mile -- :37.84

Happy Jack

Fractions (revised after Santa Anita corrections)
1/4 mile -- :23.75 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :48.65 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.37 (sixth)
1 mile -- 1:37.76 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.91 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.75
second 1/4 mile -- :24.90
third 1/4 mile -- :23.72
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.39
final 1/8 mile -- :13.15
final 3/8 mile -- :38.54



Wood Memorial

Mo Donegal received a 96 Beyer figure. He beat Early Voting by a neck.

My mouth dropped open when I saw Mo Donegal's time for the final 3/8 mile. I don't recall ever seeing a sub-36 time in the 20 years I've been analyzing these figures. Early Voting and Skippylongstocking also finished in well under 38 seconds.

I decided to look deeper and found that the next two runners also finished in well under 38 seconds. A.P.s Secret (who was fourth) finished in 37.32, and Barese (fifth) finished in 37.14. The rest of the field were way off the mark. I conclude that Mo Donegal, Early Voting and Skippylongstocking all ran tremendous races, but the shine is just a bit diminished when the next two under the wire also finished in under 38 seconds.

Not only did Mo Donegal finish fast, he ran perfect 12's (giving him credit for hitting the mark by going 25.06 in the first quarter-mile). However, Early Voting, Skippylongstocking, A.P.'s Secret and Barese also ran perfect 12's.

More food for thought. This was the fastest-run Wood Memorial since 2005 when Bellamy Road was timed in 1:47.16 (a new track record), won by 17 1/2 lengths and was given a 122 Equibase figure. In the Kentucky Derby, he was the 5-2 favorite and finished seventh, beaten 6 3/4 lengths by 50-1 (off a 15-1 morning line) Giacomo. Go figure. By the way, and some of you may remember this, before that Kentucky Derby I touted Giacomo as "the best bridesmaid in America."

I was impressed that while Mo Donegal was being asked in the far turn, he was not being urged, and I liked the way he cooperated with Rosario down the stretch. Both Rosario and Ortiz got busy with their horses in the stretch. Mo Donegal was just a little better.

Mo Donegal had a win over the track last year (the Remsen Stakes). It was his fifth career start and second this year. It was his first time shipping a long distance for a race.

Early Voting was competing in only his third race. It was his second start of the year. He's never been shipped a long distance to race.

The gallop-out was not dominated by the top two finishers. It was "won" by A.P.'s Secret and Barese. A couple of lengths behind them running into the turn were Mo Donegal, Early Voting and Skippylongstocking. Of the latter three, Skippylongstocking galloped out ahead in the turn and looked to gallop out farthest when the video ended.

Mo Donegal

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :25.06 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :48.75 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.49 (sixth)
1 mile -- 1:36.03 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:47.96 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :25.06
second 1/4 mile -- :23.69
third 1/4 mile -- :23.74
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.54
final 1/8 mile -- :11.93
final 3/8 mile -- :35.47

Early Voting

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.86 (first)
1/2 mile -- :47.75 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.59 (first)
1 mile -- 1:35.63 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.01 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.86
second 1/4 mile -- :23.89
third 1/4 mile -- :23.84
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.04
final 1/8 mile -- :12.38
final 3/8 mile -- :36.42

Skippylongstocking

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.46 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :48.45 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.29 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:36.43 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.71 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.46
second 1/4 mile -- :23.99
third 1/4 mile -- :23.84
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.14
final 1/8 mile -- :12.28
final 3/8 mile -- :36.42

Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park

White Abarrio was given a 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Beyer figs were expertly conceived, and my default setting is that they are expertly applied as well. It bothers me, though, that this group finished off the race so slowly.

None of these horses finished in under 38 seconds. However, White Abarrio, Charge It, Simplification and even Pappacap get credit for running 12's.

White Abarrio showed a new dimension, winning from off the pace. He was well-rested after an eight-week break from winning the Holy Bull on Feb. 5, so we'll see how his training comes along in the five week break before the Kentucky Derby. After he won the Holy Bull, White Abarrio's first workout was 22 days later. His camp said he spiked a fever (101.5) 12 days before the Florida Derby; a workout six days before the race was scuttled; and then he blew out three furlongs in 34.96 four days four days before the race.

Charge It is a big boy who was running two turns for the first time. He hit the gate at the start; lugged in twice under a right-handed whip in upper stretch and near the sixteenth pole; and was very green in the final 100 yards. So, with all that, a second-place finish was pretty good. However, it may reflect poorly on this field. Charge It definitely has room for improvement. He would run in the Kentucky Derby off only three prior starts.

I was a bit surprised to see Simplification contest the early pace, which was solid but not fast. After doing that he finished in 40 seconds and change, not a great sign for the Kentucky Derby. He looks like a horse that could be right there turning for home only to fade in the stretch.

Pappacap has not lived up to expectations this year, and he may have distance limitations. Perhaps he will be best going a mile or shorter.

Classic Causeway went from being a respected Kentucky Derby prospect to a last-place finsh in this race, beaten 21 1/4 lengths, after running for real only about four furlongs. He may have come out of the race injured (I certainly hope not), but regardless it's hard to see him going on to the Kentucky Derby off such a poor effort.

In a lackluster gallop-out, Steal Sunsine led the way into the first turn after finishing sixth, beaten 8 1/4 lengths at 75-1 odds. White Abarrio and Simplification, the latter one pulled up very early, followed Steal Sunshine in the gallop-out. Charge It and O Captain were behind those three, not galloping out strongly.

White Abarrio

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.21 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :47.69 (fifth)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.98 (third)
1 mile -- 1:36.55 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.64 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.21
second 1/4 mile -- :23.48
third 1/4 mile -- :23.29
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.57
final 1/8 mile -- :14.09
final 3/8 mile -- :39.66

Charge It

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.17 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :47.64 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.18 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:36.95 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.89 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.17
second 1/4 mile -- :23.47
third 1/4 mile -- :23.54
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.77
final 1/8 mile -- :13.94
final 3/8 mile -- :39.71

Simplification

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.77 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.28 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.72 (second)
1 mile -- 1:36.59 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.09 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.77
second 1/4 mile -- :23.51
third 1/4 mile -- :23.44
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.87
final 1/8 mile -- :14.50
final 3/8 mile -- :40.37

Pappacap

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.87 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.34 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:10.68 (first)
1 mile -- 1:36.85 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.79 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.87
second 1/4 mile -- :23.47
third 1/4 mile -- :23.34
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.17
final 1/8 mile -- :14.94
final 3/8 mile -- :41.11


Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park

Cyberknife was given a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

I will give Cyberknife "12's since he was just hundredths of a second from hitting the needed marks. Barber Road and Secret Oath also get credit for 12's. Nothing finished in under 38 seconds. The slowish finishes were much like those of the Florida Derby.

After unseating Florent Geroux in the post parade, Cyberknife was given a nifty ride, proved once again he can rate, and he looked good navigating through traffic into the far turn. That kind of mental toughness and agility might bode well in a large field like we see in the Kentucky Derby.

His finish was not as strong as desired. He was not geared down at the end, and in fact the chart describes "brisk handling" in the final stage of the race. However, his win at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19 of an 8 1/2-furlong race in preparation for the Arkansas Derby saw him finish the final 5/16 in 30.64.

Barber Road is beginning to look like a logical must-use underneath in Derby exotics. After winning two of his three first starts, in his five races since then he's finished second four times and third once. He has little early speed, but he keeps plugging away when others tire. His speed figs appear range-bound, but perhaps he will improve racing an even longer distance. Some trivia: he and White Abarrio are both by Race Day.

Secret Oath tried to engulf the entire field after being in last up the backstretch, but she flattened out in the stretch. Hard to see her going in the Derby even if 20 points proves to be enough.

Doppelganger (what a great name -- if not familiar with this word, look it up) went through a nightmare trip so bad he only ran 27 and change in the fourth quarter of the race. He might be worth checking out if he were to run in, say, the Pat Day Mile or the Preakness.

Barber Road galloped out about a length in front of Cyberknife, but the length of the video was inadequate to judge how far they ran. I didn't see any other horses in the gallop-out except for a brief glimpse of Secret Oath slowing down behind the other two.

Commentary after the race indicated Cyberknife "wouldn't blow out a match" in the winner's circle.

Cyberknife

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.91 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :46.94 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.26 (second)
1 mile -- 1:37.24 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.42 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.91
second 1/4 mile -- :24.03
third 1/4 mile -- :24.32
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.98
final 1/8 mile -- :13.18
final 3/8 mile -- :39.16

Barber Road

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.41 (eighth)
1/2 mile -- :47.29 (eighth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.82 (fifth)
1 mile -- 1:38.04 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.97 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.41
second 1/4 mile -- :23.88
third 1/4 mile -- :24.53
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.22
final 1/8 mile -- :12.93
final 3/8 mile -- :39.15

Secret Oath

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.31 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :47.33 (ninth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.72 (fourth)
1 mile -- 1:37.74 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:51.12 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.31
second 1/4 mile -- :24.02
third 1/4 mile -- :24.39
fourth 1/4 mile -- :26.02
final 1/8 mile -- :13.38
final 3/8 mile -- :39.40

Doppelganger

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.51 (third)
1/2 mile -- :46.74 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.07 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:39.79 (eighth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:52.02 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.51
second 1/4 mile -- :24.23
third 1/4 mile -- :25.33
fourth 1/4 mile -- :27.72
final 1/8 mile -- :12.23
final 3/8 mile -- :39.95


Jeff Ruby Steaks, TurfwayPark

Tiz the Bomb was given a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. I thought it would be higher, given his perfect 12's and a finishing figure of 37 seconds. Tawny Port and Rich Strike also finished strongly, and they ran 12's.

Tiz the Bomb is a proven commodity on synthetic at Turfway after winning the Battaglia and this one. The race before those two, he bombed in the Holy Bull after washing out in the post parade. So was it the dirt? Had he expended his energy? Or was it both? But not question Tiz the Bomb knows he's a racehorse, and he likes it. Now we wait to see if he runs in the Kentucky Derby or goes to Europe.

Some horses run well on both turf and synthetic surfaces, and experts say some turf horses run well on the dirt at Churchill Downs. We should not forget that Animal Kingdom used this race as a springboard to win the Kentucky Derby after posting what was called a strong six-furlong breeze at Churchill.

I was not very familiar with Tawny Port, but he ran a bang-up race, too. However, of his four career races, the best three came at Turfway Park.

Rich Strike ran his best race to date and finished faster than the others. He's one to watch, but he has only 20 Derby points.

 Fourth finisher Dowagiac Chief wasn't nominated to the Triple Crown.

And the winner of the gallop-out was...Rich Strike, much the best. He passed both Tiz the Bomb and Tawny Port before they entered the first turn. Then Tiz the Bomb was pulled up quickly as Tawny Port ran by him, and then so did fifth finisher Royal Spirit.

Tiz the Bomb

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.95 (sixth)
1/2 mile -- :47.61 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.58 (third)
1 mile -- 1:35.89 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:48.60 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.94
second 1/4 mile -- :23.67
third 1/4 mile -- :23.97
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.31
final 1/8 mile -- :12.71
final 3/8 mile -- :37.02

Tawny Port

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.75 (fifth)
1/2 mile -- :47.36 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.48 (second)
1 mile -- 1:35.99 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.05 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.75
second 1/4 mile -- :23.61
third 1/4 mile -- :24.12
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.51
final 1/8 mile -- :13.06
final 3/8 mile -- :37.57

Rich Strike

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.60 (eleventh)
1/2 mile -- :47.41 (eleventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.93 (eleventh)
1 mile -- 1:36.59 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.75 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.60
second 1/4 mile -- :22.81
third 1/4 mile -- :25.52
fourth 1/4 mile -- :23.66
final 1/8 mile -- :13.16
final 3/8 mile -- :36.82

March 27, Sunland Derby

This race at one time had some luster, but after being canceled in 2020 and 2021 this year's model could not have been more dull. Among the top four finishers, only the winner was early-nominated to the Triple Crown, and he slowed down markedly during the latter stages of the race. It's been seven years since Firing Line ran second in the Kentucky Derby after winning this race.

Slow Down Andy

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :22.33 (second)
1/2 mile -- :45.45 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:09.54 (first)
1 mile -- 1:36.91 (second by hd)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.16 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :22.33
second 1/4 mile -- :23.12
third 1/4 mile -- :24.09
fourth 1/4 mile -- :27.37
final 1/8 mile -- :13.25
final 3/8 mile -- :40.62

March 26, Louisiana Derby

Epicenter earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure, reminding me that not one starter in last year's Kentucky Derby earned back-to-back triple digit Beyers going into the first Saturday in May. And neither will Epicenter, who was given a 98 in the Risen Star. Still, his figure progressed.

Again, as we saw in the Risen Star, all four top finishers ran a bang-up race. All of them ran 12's, with Epicenter hitting the mark at all five calls, Zozos getting four of the five calls, and Pioneer of Medina and even Rattle N Roll getting credit for 12's by being within a second of averaging 12 seconds per furlong at three of the five calls.

This was a 1 3/16 mile race, but we can safely say that all four of the top runners get credit for finishing in the benchmark 38 seconds or less. If we assume the horses ran the same speed throughout the final 7/16 mile, then:

--Epicenter's final 7/16 mile in 42.39 interpolates to 36.33.
--Zozos' final 7/16 in 43.18, interpolates to 37.01.
--Pioneer of Medina's final 7/16 of 43.49 interpolates to 37.27
--Rattle N Roll's final 7/16 of 43.09 interpolates to 36.93.

Assuming all four horses slowed down a bit in the final 3/16, which it does not appear they did (Epicenter ran the final 3/16 in 18.22; Zozos in 18.42, Pioneer of Medina in 18.32, and Rattle N Roll, who went slower than the others earlier, in 18.12), it's still safe to assume that after six furlongs, they ran the next three in 38 seconds or less.

Did all these horses run tremendous races, or did the surface aid them? Looking back at the Risen Star, when Epicenter led all the way, the second and third finishers (Smile Happy and Zandon) came from well off the pace to overtake Pioneer of Medina, who, like he did in the Louisiana Derby, ran second early, then backed up a little. Looking back on it, the track was playing fairly that day.

Initial fractions in the Louisiana Derby were honest, with the top three finishers all showing good tactical speed. Maybe the track was not an undue aid to success.

Epicenter not only added to his resume, he added running-style versatility and the ability to take some dirt. He is a deserving favorite to win the Kentucky Derby at this point. But as we all know, the next six weeks is a long time.

Zozos ran very well in his stakes debut and only his third career start. Pioneer of Medina made his third consecutive start after shipping to New Orleans from south Florida.

Two more things, and I'm done.

The track record is not something I will focus on. Not many races have been run at that distance at Fair Grounds.

Epicenter easily led the gallop-out, and he was still going in the second half of the first turn when the video stopped. Rosario seemed reluctant to pull him up, probably by design. The second, third and fourth finishers galloped out in that order.

Epicenter

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.47 (third)
1/2 mile -- :47.65 (third)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.99 (third)
1 mile -- 1:36.16 (first)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:54.38 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.47
second 1/4 mile -- :24.18
third 1/4 mile -- :24.34
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.17
final 3/16 mile -- :18.22

Zozos

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.27 (first)
1/2 mile -- :47.35 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.69 (first)
1 mile -- 1:36.46 (second)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:54.88 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.27
second 1/4 mile -- :24.08
third 1/4 mile -- :24.34
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.77
final 3/16 mile -- :18.42

Pioneer of Medina
Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.47 (second)
1/2 mile -- :47.45 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:11.79 (second)
1 mile -- 1:36.96 (third)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:55.28 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.47
second 1/4 mile -- :23.98
third 1/4 mile -- :24.34
fourth 1/4 mile -- :25.17
final 3/16 mile -- :18.32

Rattle N Roll
Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.77 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :48.45 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.89 (sixth)
1 mile -- 1:37.86 (sixth)
1 3/16 mile -- 1:55.98 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.77
second 1/4 mile -- :23.68
third 1/4 mile -- :24.44
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.97
final 3/16 mile -- :18.12

March 26, UAE Derby, Meydan

I am still waiting for the fractions for this race. They don't chart the way we do over in Dubai, but usually the Emirates Racing Authority releases fractions for every horse in the races on World Cup day. So far this year, nothing.

It's my understanding that Crown Pride, the winner, came home slowly. i think I heard one of the TV hosts say 27 seconds. Visually, that's the way it looked. Crown Pride easily ran by several horses while going wide to loom up to pacesetter Summer Is Tomorrow, before appearing to hang. But then, Summer Is Tomorrow hung worse and Crown Pride galloped on by him to win by 2 3/4 lengths.

The time, 1:59.76 for about 1 3/16 miles, is not fast. I think, though, Crown Pride got a 105 rating for the win, which isn't too bad.

I was really rooting for this horse and was very pleased he won, because Byron King and I have him in our Triple Crown Fantasy League stable. Byron drafted him.


Feb. 19, Risen Star Stakes, Fair Grounds

Epicenter, who won, and Pioneer of Medina, who finished fourth, both ran 12's in the Risen Star. What is striking is that all four of the top runners finished well under 38 seconds, indicating either that this was a very strong race or that the track was playing fast on Feb. 19.

Epicenter ran a strong race to maintain his lead and win by open lengths while doing all the heavy lifting, while Pioneeer of Medina, who was second most of the way, faded to fourth in the late going. However, he was passed by two well-rated horses, Smile Happy and Zandon.

Epicenter earned a 98 Beyer, indicating that those fellows believe it was a strong race.

I have a sentimental connection to Epicenter in that he was foaled in Warren County, Ky. and my home in Bowling Green is in that county.

Epicenter

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.79 (first)
1/2 mile -- :47.97 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.25 (first)
1 mile -- 1:36.58 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.03 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.79
second 1/4 mile -- :24.18
third 1/4 mile -- :24.28
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.33
final 1/8 mile -- :12.45
final 3/8 mile -- :36.78

Smile Happy

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.79 (eighth)
1/2 mile -- :48.77 (seventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.15 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:37.48 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.58 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.79
second 1/4 mile -- :23.98
third 1/4 mile -- :24.38
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.33
final 1/8 mile -- :12.10
final 3/8 mile -- :36.43

Zandon

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.15 (tenth)
1/2 mile -- :49.07 (ninth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.25 (eighth)
1 mile -- 1:37.58 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.68 (third)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.15
second 1/4 mile -- :24.92
third 1/4 mile -- :24.18
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.33
final 1/8 mile -- :12.10
final 3/8 mile -- :36.43

Pioneer of Medina

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.99 (second)
1/2 mile -- :48.17 (second)
3/4 mile -- 1:12.55 (second)
1 mile -- 1:37.48 (second)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:49.71 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.99
second 1/4 mile -- :24.18
third 1/4 mile -- :24.38
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.93
final 1/8 mile -- :12.23
final 3/8 mile -- :37.16



Feb. 12, El Camino Real Derby, Golden Gate Fields (synthetic)

Blackadder was trained by Bob Baffert when this race was run and has since been transferred to the barn of Rodolphe Brisset with either the Spiral Stakes at Turfway or the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland targeted.

Blackadder, an expensive yearling purchase, had traffic trouble and exploded down the lane on the inside to nail favored Mackinnon at the wire after experiencing traffic trouble behind a wall of horses. Mackinnon escaped the same trouble first, then Blackadder came after him.

Blackadder did not earn 12's in this race, but he finished extremely strongly.

Meanwhile, Mackinnon has not put in a workout since this race.

Blackadder's Beyer in the El Camino Real Derby is 82, perhaps indicative of his overall time but not his finish.

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.41 (seventh)
1/2 mile -- :48.97 (sixth)
3/4 mile -- 1:13.38 (seventh)
1 mile -- 1:38.36 (fifth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:50.34 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.41
second 1/4 mile -- :24.56
third 1/4 mile -- :24.41
fourth 1/4 mile -- :24.98
final 1/8 mile -- :11.98
final 3/8 mile -- :36.96


Feb. 5, Withers Stakes, Aqueduct

The race was run in cold weather over a muddy, harrowed track. The times are glacial, and the 78 winning Beyer figure matches up.

There are no 12's in this race -- it was slower than that -- and despite this nothing finished even close to 38 seconds for the final three furlongs.

Despite all this, Early Voting still had some support from experts and bettors weeks later as he continued to put in regular breezes at Belmont Park.

Un Ojo came back to win the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park with the same kind of inside trip, but knowledgeable insiders I spoke with said this year's Rebel was very weak. Un Ojo earned an 84.

The third finisher, Gilded Age, was smoked in the UAE Derby on March 26.

Grantham, who finished fourth, came back and ran a significantly better Equibase speed figure to finish second to Classic Causeway in the Tampa Bay Derby, but Classic Causeway was only given an 84, the same as Un Ojo earned winning the Rebel.

Early Voting

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :23.57 (first)
1/2 mile -- :48.04 (first)
3/4 mile -- 1:14.29 (first)
1 mile -- 1:41.75 (first)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:55.90 (first)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :23.57
second 1/4 mile -- :24.47
third 1/4 mile -- :26.25
fourth 1/4 mile -- :27.46
final 1/8 mile -- :14.15
final 3/8 mile -- :41.61

Un Ojo

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :26.77 (eleventh)
1/2 mile -- :51.54 (eleventh)
3/4 mile -- 1:16.29 (ninth)
1 mile -- 1:43.45 (fourth)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:56.80 (second)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :26.77
second 1/4 mile -- :24.77
third 1/4 mile -- :24.75
fourth 1/4 mile -- :27.16
final 1/8 mile -- :13.35
final 3/8 mile -- :40.51

Gilded Age was third, later ran way off the board in the UAE Derby.

Grantham

Fractions
1/4 mile -- :24.57 (fourth)
1/2 mile -- :49.24 (fourth)
3/4 mile -- 1:15.24 (third)
1 mile -- 1:43.05 (third)
1 1/8 mile -- 1:57.15 (fourth)

Internal Fractions
first 1/4 mile -- :24.57
second 1/4 mile -- :24.67
third 1/4 mile -- :26.00
fourth 1/4 mile -- :27.81
final 1/8 mile -- :14.10
final 3/8 mile -- :41.91