Dick's Picks for the 2023 Kentucky Derby

By Dick Downey

Posted May 4, 2023 at 12:48 p.m. ET

Updated May 4, 2023 at 3:13 p.m. ET with scratch of Practical Move, inclusion of Cyclone Mischief

Updated May 4, 2023 at 5:12 p.m. ET with Lord Miles ordered out of the race, inclusion of Mandarin Hero

Updated May 4, 2023 at 11:15 p.m. ET with scratch of Continuar, inclusion of King Russell

Updated May 5, 2023 at 11:05 a.m. ET with scratch of Skinner

Updated May 6, 2023 at 12:02 p.m. ET after scratch of Forte

PLEASE NOTE  FINAL REVISIONS AND FINAL EDIT TOOK PLACE ON SATURDAY AFTER THE SCRATCH OF FORTE.

RACE SETUP

Most of the early speed drew inside one of the two horses among the three lowest morning lines: Angel of Empire (#14, 8-1) and Derma Sotogake (#17, 10-1). With a good trip Angel of Empire can sit outside the initial pace, and with a well-timed ride he can loom large as the field turns for home and and the wall of sound to run the dramatic last quarter-mile of the Kentucky Derby.

Tapit Trice (#5, 5-1), the morning line favorite with the scratch of Forte, doesn't break from the gate all that well and may very well find himself behind horses in the early going. I suspect Tapit Trice, in order to be most effective and utilize his long stride, will need to find a way to get outside the speed, but how long will it take? More about that below.

Angel of Empire being outside the early pace, especially a quick early pace, will help him. The consensus seems to be the early pace won't be hot, but you never know in the Derby. No one saw a 45-and-change first half-mile coming last year, but it happened.

The addition of #22 Mandarin Hero and #23 King Russell in the outside posts puts two more closers in the field.

My thought is Reincarnate (#7) is a good candidate to lead the field into the first turn after his most recent workout going four furlongs in 46:40 Handily (1/31) at Santa Anita. He may try to take it all the way, Baffert style, but without being in Baffert's barn. If he does, well, that's horse racing for better or for worse.

Verifying (#2) could be right there with Reincarnate at the first turn IF he isn't shuffled back by the inevitable narrowing of running room while horses are jockeyed for position the first time down the lane.

Confidence Game (#4) has won two races on the lead and had a very aggressive workout last Saturday, so it's hard to rule out an early engagement for him.

Kingsbarns (#6) won the Louisiana Derby on the lead when he put a field with little early speed to sleep and got away with moderate fractions. As long as he isn't banged around much in the early going, he won't have a problem dealing with kickback, so while I don't look for Kingsbarns to lead early I suspect he'll be prominent.

Other horses are, in my opinion, candidates to be at the front or close to it in the early going: Jace's Road (post 12), a stablemate of Angel of Empire; Derma Sotogake (JPN) (post 17, 10-1), who resents restraint and could be part of the speed; Rocket Can (#18), although I think he is unlikely, and Cyclone Mischief (#21).

Should a brisk early pace set up, I see it benefiting my top choice (Angel of Empire) and other closers.
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OBJECTIVE MEASURES

The Downey Profile is an objective evaluation of the Kentucky Derby, and this year we've looked to two other objective measures. Attached here is a summary of the three different objective measures used this year: (a) The Downey Profile rankings; (b) Profile Busters Profile; and (c) Derby by the Speed Numbers.

(a) Top 4 Downey Profile horses in order of points: Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Confidence Game (added after scratch of Practical Move), Hit Show (Performance Points Only category, moved up after scratch of Forte) and Mandarin Hero (Total Points category, moved up after scratch of Forte)

(b) Profile Buster Profile: Mandarin Hero and Two Phil's

(c) Top 4 Derby by the Speed Numbers in order of points: Angel of Empire (5), Skinner (4), Two Phil's (4), Tapit Trice (3), Verifying (3)

HORSES SUGGESTED BY THESE OBJECTIVE MEASURES

ANGEL OF EMPIRE (8-1, #14) He also looks good in both my Profile and Derby by the Speed Numbers.

Angel of Empire is my Derby horse. Horses are pack animals, and the ones that separate from the pack like to win. This was one such horse in the Arkansas Derby The way he separated himself from the field, his turn of foot, impressed me. The separation took place quickly.

Some might say, what did he beat. You can look at a lot of the fields in races like this and say the same thing about the winner. I don't think this argument holds water, and my answer to it is, he beat every other horse in the race. The fact is that the margin of victory in the Arkansas Derby was much greater than it was in the Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes combined.

I think the comment made by Chris Landeros after his last workout was telling. Angel of Empire had just left Jace's Road in his dust during the gallop-out -- again we saw a sudden separation of horses. Landeros was aboard Angel of Empire for the move. Asked about the work by the notes team, Landeros said, "He seems to have a lot of gears."

Albaugh Family Stables owns Angel of Empire, and they own Jace's Road in partnership with West Point Thoroughbreds. Jace's Road will break from post 12 and represent an early influence that could help insure an honest pace. Meanwhile, Angel of Empire can sit outside the leaders early while Prat waits to see if he will repeat his stunning turn of foot. In the meantime, if he needs to run through kickback Angel of Empire has shown it doesn't bother him.

Angel of Empire has a dosage index of 9.00. I have long written about the demise of the dual qualifier (horses had to have a dosage index of 4.00 to qualify, but the handicapping method went away a number of years ago), and some of you may remember I recently wrote Angel of Empire could represent not just the demise, but the extinction of dosage as a factor in the Kentucky Derby. Before the Arkansas Derby, I had never seen a horse with a dosage index this high annihilate foes going nine furlongs.

Not only that, but Angel of Empire ran through the wire and led the way in the Arkansas Derby gallop-out, separated two or three lengths from the ran-too-late Red Route One who in the gallop-out was just ahead of second-, third- and fourth-place finishers King Russell, Reincarnate and Rocket Can. Those four remained grouped closely in the first turn like they were at the finish line.

One last point, and it's that the Arkansas Derby draws a huge crowd. The Kentucky Derby won't be Angel of Empire's first rodeo in front of a large number of raucous fans. My top selection.

TWO PHIL'S (12-1, #3) He is a Profile Buster along with Mandarin Hero, and he rates well in my Derby by the Speed Numbers analysis.

Two Phil's is another one that can handle kickback, and he'll likely need that quality exiting from post 3 as horses ahead of him wrangle for position going into the first turn.

The win of the Jeff Ruby by Two Phil's was devastating as he came from the middle of the field to blow away his competition in the lane. Like Angel of Empire, he defies pack mentality. Before the synthetic-track Ruby, Two Phil's raced competitively on dirt in the Lecomte and Risen Star, but he could not quite close the deal.

Trainer Rivelli said the colt trained super at Turfway, that he clearly liked the synthetic surface, and that he wished for a sloppy track at Churchill Downs on May 6 (Two Phil's won on the slop there last fall). Two Phil's isn't going to have synthetic track or rain on Saturday, but will he need it? His recent works on dirt have been great, and upon arrival at Churchill Downs this week, he's stood on the track like an old pro, unfazed by the activity around him.

There's a lot to like here. After the wire in the Jeff Ruby, Two Phil's gallop-out extended all the way to the backstretch, and the camera work doesn't show anything else close to him.

And lest we overlook this, synthetic horses are often best on turf. Two Phil's hasn't run on turf, but if he is indeed best on turf, the dirt track at Churchill Downs is known to be kind to some of the turf horses that try it. Major threat.

PRACTICAL MOVE (SCRATCHED) He looks good in the Downey Profile and Derby by the Speed Numbers.

By my count there are four, maybe five possible early-pace horses located inside Practical Move in the starting gate. Practical Move's backers want to see him get another trip like the ones he got in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, sitting off (hopefully for him) lesser horses while saving ground before he assumes command.

A knock on the Santa Anita Derby as a whole could be that the top three finishers received a perfect setup from two long odds horses setting a brisk pace (54-1 One in Vermillion and 40-1 Low Expectations, pace was 22.30 and 46.30) for over a half-mile. The absence of Geaux Rocket Ride, who was scratched after spiking a fever, left the field absent a front-runner with the potential to carry his speed deep into the stretch.

Going into the Kentucky Derby, assuming he gets a good trip and runs well, the question is whether Practical Move can keep it going after a mile and an eighth. His pedigree does not exude classic distance, and he held off a charging Mandarin Hero (as of this post still needing two defections to get in) by only a nose in the Santa Anita Derby, with Skinner a looming one-half length back at the wire. But here's the thing. Despite the momentum Mandarin Hero and Skinner built when they were coming after Practical Move in the lane, Practical Move still led the field through the gallop-out, initially followed most closely by Mandarin Hero and Skinner -- and it was National Treasure, not Mandarin Hero or Skinnerr, who joined Practical Move as they approached the center of the first turn.

I'm told there are rumors floating around about Practical Move, but if he isn't okay why does Rosie Napravnik have him picked second? I do take note that none of the other in-house experts at Churchill Downs have him in their top 5 selections, but Rosie has proven them wrong before.

FORTE (SCRATCHED) He is in The Downey Profile Top 4.

I wonder if Forte will be sent off at 3-1 or less. If those odds hold, maybe we better forget about whatever concerns we have.

Concerns like him getting worked up and sweating on his neck like he did before the Florida Derby. Wait, he won the Florida Derby anyway.

Concerns like his descending Beyer speed figures. Let's take a look at some comparative figures.

Beyers: Breeders' Cup Juvenile: 100. Fountain of Youth: 98. Florida Derby: 95.
Brisnet: Breeders' Cup Juvenile: 100. Fountain of Youth: 103. Florida Derby: 100.
Equibase: Breeders' Cup Juvenile: 105. Fountain of Youth: 106. Florida Derby: 104.

That was a bit anti-climactic unless you trust the Beyer figures a lot more than the others.

Concerns that his pedigree doesn't shout classic distance. Maybe it doesn't, but does that mean he can't win the Kentucky Derby?

Concerns the Florida Derby took too much out of him. That is possible, in my opinion. Although it was a courageous win, the race kind of fell apart in front of him when second-finisher Mage shortened stride late after coming from last to quickly pass Forte. Forte looked all-out to get the win. Still, after the wire, Forte and Mage galloped out best, but neither of them galloped past the mid-point of the first turn.

I feel at this point like I'm playing Devil's Advocate against Forte, just searching for reasons to beat a winner of six races in seven starts, so I'll return to the initial point. Maybe we should just watch the board and see if he gets support to match the future wagers (5-2 in pool 6) and the morning line (3-1). He's a deserving favorite.

TAPIT TRICE (5-1, #5) This $1.3 million yearling purchase is in The Downey Profile Top 4 and in the Top 4 of Derby by the Speed Numbers.

Tapit Trice did not draw well, in my opinion. Although he has a long, graceful, athletic stride, he is not very quick leaving the gate, where he is inside-ish. Tapit Trice impresses me as a horse that wants to be outside to run his best. If so, the question is how and when will he get outside.

There may be a path. Let's look at the horses to his outside in the gate. Reincarnate [7] and Jace's Road [12] will probably be sent, and Mage [8] probably will be behind him, possibly opening the space to get out. But Skinner [9] Practical Move [10] and Disarm [11] could block that space, and certainly the riders of those horses will see it would be to their advantage to do so.

In conclusion at some point Tapit Trice should run freely enough to impact the race, but I see his chance of winning compromised by the post position.

SKINNER (SCRATCHED) He ranks well in Derby by the Speed Numbers, which looks at six measurements of speed. He has a top 4 Beyer Speed Figure; a top 4 DRF combined speed/track variant number; a top 4 Brisnet late pace figure; and a top 4 Equibase speed figure.

Victor Espinoza, who won a Triple Crown aboard American Pharoah the year after he won the Derby and Preakness on California Chrome, was taken off Skinner for the Kentucky Derby and replaced with Juan Hernandez, who's never ridden him or in a Triple Crown race. Comments by trainer Shirreffs intimate the owner wanted a change after Espinoza moved too soon on Skinner in the Santa Anita Derby.

Curiously, Skinner was the only horse that finished in the top four of the Santa Anita Derby to run perfect 12-second furlongs (see Sections 4 and 7), and he finished the final 3/8 mile in under 37 seconds. Assuming the track was playing fast, and in my opinion it was, he did very well to close from seventh to be beaten by only a half-length. So if he was ridden poorly, no telling what could happen with better timing.

The chart call for the Santa Anita Derby: "Skinner got bumped on both sides leaving the gate, reserved three wide early, went three deep into the far turn, range up four wide outside the leaders leaving the bend, bumped with the runner-up in the lane, fought three deep into the final sixteenth and finished a game third."

CONFIDENCE GAME (20-1, #4) He is in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile rankings. Read more about him below in The Pace Candidates section. From three total wins he has come from behind to win once (on a sloppy track in the Rebel). He has two wins as the pacesetter with both those races taking place at Churchill Downs. I consider him a possible pace factor.

MANDARIN HERO (20-1, #22) He is a Profile Buster along with Two Phil's; is in the Top 4 in the Total Points Category of The Downey Profile rankings; and is among the Top 4 in Derby by the Speed Numbers. Mandarin Hero, who ran a 100 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, could be a major player. He ran his eyeballs out in the Santa Anita Derby after being shipped in from Japan. I have to wonder if he has another effort like that in him this soon. He's on the small side, so has he retained his weight? Can he handle such an extreme outside post with his come-from behind style? If he makes it into the field, I could not pick him to win, but perhaps on the bottom of vertical exotics.

VERIFYING (15-1, #2) He is in among the top horses in Derby by the Speed Numbers. See section below for Verifying.

THE PACE CANDIDATES

Most if not all the horses in the preceding section are expected to come from off the pace. Confidence Game could be an exception, and there's more about him below. Let's take a look at the early pace.

VERIFYING (15-1, #2) This one is a consistent pace factor and is capable of breaking well and running an initial quarter-mile in 23 seconds. Recently I wondered if the Blue Grass was his Derby and if he had another eighth-mile in him, but then I looked back at the gallop-out. Verifying was showing the way ahead of Tapit Trice, who overtook Verifying late to win the Blue Grass by a neck. He's an expensive, well-bred horse who has a legitimate chance in the Kentucky Derby.

I'm mainly concerned with his post, which is not a desirable one even with the relatively new starting gate that has the inner posts looking straight down the stretch instead of the inner rail. Verifying will need a clean trip into the first turn, and no one knows how that's going to work out. One thing is for sure, in my opinion, and it's that he will be sent by jockey Gaffalione, who's not afraid to ride aggressively.

I would not leave Verifying off of tickets.

CONFIDENCE GAME (20-1, #4) Confidence Game wowed onlookers with what some perceive to have been a one-mile breeze last Saturday, although it was made official at five furlongs. Trainer Desormeaux claimed he was told Confidence Game went 1 1/6 mile in 1:43 and 2/5. This gives me the impression Desormeaux wants jockey Graham be aggressive, have Confidence Game right there leaving the far turn, and let the chips fall where they may. Last year Confidence Game won on the lead sprinting and in an allowance race at the home of the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs.

The obvious issue is that Confidence Game hasn't raced since February and has not raced beyond 1 1/16 mile. The last horse I recall who tried the Derby under similar circumstances was Destin. After winning the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby in March 2016, he finished sixth, beaten seven lengths, in the Kentucky Derby.

KINGSBARNS (#6) is discussed in the next section.

REINCARNATE (50-1, #7) This looks like a mistake morning line. Some of the readers probably know more than I do about this, but I'm told there's a belief that his morning line was somehow switched with that of Jace's Road at the post position draw. Jace's Road was announced at 15-1, but he's 50-1 in the program. Reincarnate was announced at 50-1, which surprised me, and he's the same in the program. I guess my point is, if Reincarnate is bet down quite a bit from that 50-1 morning line, don't be surprised.

This horse has been on the lead at the first call three times, winning twice and finishing second the other time. In each of those three races he cut out splits of 23 and 47 seconds (one of them was 47 and 1). One of the two wins came in the Sham, where he hung on by a neck to the since-injured Newgate. Horses from trainer Baffert's barn have a history of improving off so-so finishes to win the Kentucky Derby (Authentic in 2020, Medina Spirit in 2021 later disqualified by stewards for a betamethasone positive). 

Beating Reincarnate will be more likely if he gets an early challenge or two. His best chance of winning is to get an uncontested lead and just cruise around there.

Last year trainer Yakteen had two horses in the Derby formerly trained by Baffert. Taiba was sent off at 5-1 odds and finished 12th. Messier finished 15th at 7-1 odds.

Although horses transferred out of Baffert's barn have not been outstanding as a group this year, it might be wise to use Reincarnate on tickets in case he gets out front and stays ahead of tiring horses.

JACE'S ROAD (50-1, #12) The stablemate to Angel of Empire is expected to be forwardly placed early. In past races he's set the pace only once, winning the Gun Runner (sire of his stablemate) by five lengths in December at Fair Grounds. He did not fare as well in the Southwest Stakes after finding himself fifth early and fifth at the end after losing ground. Much more forwardly-placed in the Louisiana Derby, Jace's Road was second early and could have challenged Kingsbarns at that point, but jockey Geroux decided to back off and conserve his energy. However, Kingsbarns had plenty left in the tank and won. Disarm came on late to get second.

DERMA SOTOGAKE (10-1, #17) Derma Sotogake ran a very good and fast UAE Derby on the lead and finished strongly after cutting out honest early fractions. He was all alone at the finish line. I am told he got a 1 on the Ragozin sheets, a very good number. The 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby was Derma Sotogake's fifth (not a typo) race at 1 1/8 mile or longer, so he has a lot of foundation.

If this horse had won a major prep race in the United States like he did the UAE Derby, his morning line would probably be less than 10-1. The fact remains that from 22 editions of the UAE Derby, not one horse from the UAE Derby has hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Five years ago UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn got a lot of steam at Churchill Downs, was sent off at 6-1, and finished last after being eased.

With history against Derma Sotogake, nothing is ever absolute in this game. With that disclaimer, I view this horse as one that will either run great or bad.

His assistant trainer said Tuesday, “I think from the outside (post 17) he will be able to take a decent position keeping an eye on the whole field in the early stages. He broke quickly from the gate the other day, so I think it won’t be a problem."

I'm not sure how to interpret that comment, but in my opinion, if Derma Sotogake has a chance to win, I cannot envision his rider doing anything other than sending him. My reasoning is that this horse has demonstrated in the mornings his resentment of being restrained by throwing his head. If that his how he's ridden in the Derby, would it not compromise him?

Perhaps the rider will not try to rate Derma Sotogake. I'm thinking back on the 2017 Derby when Always Dreaming was a bear to train in the mornings. Trainer Pletcher resorted to draw reins to keep him under control in training because Always Dreaming kept trying to run off. It was a big deal, and his unruliness left a lot of people doubting Always Dreaming. But when the Derby gate opened, Always Dreaming had it his way. He was not restrained, and he won.

I have to think Derma Sotogake's odds would be skewed lower due to heavy Japanese interest and wagering, so if he's not on the board at less than his 10-1 morning line, it might be a tell.

Derma Sotogake could merit a ticket where he's the winner or on top in vertical bets. He's not my top pick or in my top 6, but a saver ticket on him might be in order just in case he turns out to be another rendition of Always Dreaming.

ROCKET CAN (#18) is discussed two sections down.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF (30-1, #21) I am happy to see Cyclone Mischief get in the Derby because it's possible he will enhance the early pace, helping set it up for my top pick. If he is not sent, he will either have to deal with kickback, which he didn't seem to handle in the Holy Bull, or he will be very wide in the first turn. And it's possible he will be very wide even if he is sent.

HORSES THAT IMPRESS ME SUBJECTIVELY

KINGSBARNS (12-1, #6) This horse hasn't done anything wrong in three career starts, all age three.

The name alone shows connections thought highly of him from the beginning. An $800,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida March 2022 purchase, the village of Kingsbarns is just down the road from the royal and ancient home of golf, St. Andrews.

Kingsbarns is a laid-back professional horse that just deals with things. For example, he's unbeaten even though he has never run out of his own stall at a track. He raced right through kickback to impressively win his first start, a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park after shipping in from Palm Beach Downs. Next he shipped up to Tampa and won an allowance race by almost eight lengths. Then he shipped to Fair Grounds and won the Louisiana Derby. As my old friend Mike "Cheap Speed" Pearson used to say about Smarty Jones, "Kingsbarns just don't care." Now he will run out of his own stall for the first time in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Kingsbarns won the Louisiana Derby on the lead, the first time he used that style. From post 6 he's likely to encounter kickback, which is not a concern. The main thing he must avoid, like any horse trying for position hitting the first turn, is being jostled, and that's out of our hands.

I have kind of come around to this horse, and it was watching videos of his first two races on Tuesday afternoon that brought me. I also realized he has ascending speed figures much like Angel of Empire. One other thing, and it's that Flavien Prat chose to ride Angel of Empire over Kingsbarns. If he's right, then maybe I'm good with Angel of Empire. And now in Kingsbarns' corner is Jose Ortiz. Not bad.

DISARM (30-1, #11) His speed figures aren't special, but Disarm's training at Churchill Downs has been eye-catching, walking and jogging with his neck bowed, very much within himself and looking like the real deal.

That kind of demeanor doesn't always produce a big race, but nine days after he ran an just-okay third in the short-stretch Lexington Stakes to get Derby points, Disarm put in one of the two best, if not the best, Derby workout this year. To me the most impressive part came after the finish line when Disarm ran hard up the backstretch, and was into the far turn when he was pulled up. That was a good Derby work, and trainer Asmussen was obviously enthused by what he saw as revealed in a post-workout interview by Jennie Rees.

Wouldn't it be ironic if Asmussen and owner Winchell, who teamed up with heavily favored Epicenter in the 2022 Derby only to see him upset by ultra-longshot Rich Strike, finally got their first gold trophy with a 30-1 morning line.

TWO HORSES SHOWING LIFE WITH BLINKERS ADDED

SUN THUNDER (50-1, #13) and ROCKET CAN (30-1, #18) They have picked up supporters in recent days with the addition of blinkers by their respective trainers.

Rocket Can's stakes resume shows a decline in form with fluctuating speed figures: first in the Holy Bull (82 Beyer, 93 Brisnet), second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth (91 Beyer, 98 Brisnet) and fourth as the favorite in the Arkansas Derby (86 Beyer, 96 Brisnet). Trainer Mott is known for persevering with Country House, who was in the far outside post in the 2019 Derby and won via the disqualification of Maximum Security. Country House ran the race of his life a week after putting in the best workout of his life in company with stablemate Tacitus who went on to finish a good fourth (moved up to third).

Rocket Can's penultimate Derby work found him running all the way into the second turn, which is what Country House and Tacitus did in their final works. Rocket Can's most recent work was impressive as well, just not as ambitious. He looks great on the track and has a trainer in his corner who's founds ways to win for decades.

Sun Thunder gives the impression he's feeling very well, and it wouldn't surprise me if he far outruns his odds.

The McPeek trainee has been very energetic on the track for several days, both while working Tuesday and otherwise galloping with ears consistently pricked. At a 50-1 morning line he sports a resume that includes not one, not two, but three races at 1 1/8 mile or more. He suggests to us he can get a mile and a quarter, and there is a degree of consistency about him even though he doesn't consistently win races: fourth of eight in the Southwest, second of 14 in the Risen Star, fifth of 12 in the Louisiana Derby, and fourth of 11 in the Blue Grass.

THE REMAINING FIELD

HIT SHOW (30-1, #1) His inside post and lack of early speed lead me to think he will have a tough trip. Whether he will hit the board is anyone's guess, but he doesn't lead my list of candidates because of the heavy traffic he's likely to encounter during the run to the first turn. However, as of Saturday Hit Show is now in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile (Performance Points Only category) after the defection of Forte, and so I added him to the recommended plays set out below.

MAGE (15-1, #8) I recommend using Mage because even though he is subpar at getting away from the gate, he can motor if he gets a decent trip. With only three races under his belt, Mage's inexperience could be his undoing when he encounters the delirium that is the Kentucky Derby crowd. If possible keep an eye on him in the paddock and post parade.

RAISE CAIN (50-1, #16) He will be very high odds. He will be running late and try to pick up pieces. This horse is a smooth galloper, and I see a possibility of his being in the picture late if the race falls apart behind the winner.

KING RUSSELL (AE) (50-1, #23) Only in the Kentucky Derby could a horse that most recently finished second in a grade 1 race be 50-1 on the morning line. He is a late runner and starts from the far outside, and thus will be compromised from a ground-saving standpoint, so maybe long, long odds are justified. At any rate, King Russell would not affect the early pace, so his participation does not affect my top selections. I could see using him in superfectas. Maybe trifectas, depending on the budget.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!

DICK'S PICKS

1. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (objective pick)
2. KINGSBARNS (subjective pick)
3. TWO PHIL'S (objective pick)

4. TAPIT TRICE (objective pick)

Longshots

DISARM (subjective pick)
ROCKET CAN (subjective pick)

Derma Sotogake?

On the top in a couple of plays maybe use DERMA SOTOGAKE in case he duplicates his UAE Derby effort, which I consider unlikely, but he is gettting respect at the windows.

ON THE BOTTOM OF TICKETS
Must use HIT SHOW, MANDARIN HERO, VERIFYING
Recommend consideration of KING RUSSELL, MAGE, RAISE CAIN, SUN THUNDER

Possible trifecta plays (NOTE: VERIFYING IS #2)

14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE
with 3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE 6 KINGSBARNS
with 1 HIT SHOW / 2 VERIFYING / 3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE / 6 KINGSBARNS / 8 MAGE / 11 DISARM / 13 SUN THUNDER / 16 RAISE CAIN / 18 ROCKET CAN / 22 MANDARIN HERO / 23 KING RUSSELL
(33 combinations)

3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE / 6 KINGSBARNS
with 14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE
with 1 HIT SHOW / 2 VERIFYING / 3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE / 6 KINGSBARNS / 8 MAGE / 11 DISARM / 13 SUN THUNDER / 16 RAISE CAIN / 18 ROCKET CAN / MANDARIN HERO / 23 KING RUSSELL
(33 combinations)

3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE / 6 KINGSBARNS
with 1 HIT SHOW / 2 VERIFYING / 3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE / 6 KINGSBARNS / 8 MAGE / 11 DISARM / 13 SUN THUNDER / 16 RAISE CAIN / 18 ROCKET CAN / MANDARIN HERO / 23 KING RUSSELL
with 14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE
(33 combinations)

One more possible tranche:
1 HIT SHOW / 2 VERIFYING / 3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE / 6 KINGSBARNS / 8 MAGE / 11 DISARM / 13 SUN THUNDER / 16 RAISE CAIN / 18 ROCKET CAN / 22 MANDARIN HERO / 23 KING RUSSELL
with 14 ANGEL OF EMPIRE
with 3 TWO PHIL'S / 5 TAPIT TRICE / 6 KINGSBARNS
(33 combinations)