By Dick Downey
Posted May 6, 2022 at 9:20 a.m. ET

Updated at 10:49 a.m. with the scratch of Ethereal Road and addition of Rich Strike.

INTRODUCTION

First out of the box, The Downey Profile Top 4 are, in order, TAIBA, WHITE ABARRIO, ZANDON and CYBERKNIFE. The 2022 Profile Buster Profile has EPICENTER on top, and tied for the second slot are MO DONEGAL, MESSIER, SMILE HAPPY and TAIBA. Taiba cannot be a Profile Buster because he is in the Top 4 of The Downey Profile, but it is impressive he scored so well in both categories. If you like all these horses, maybe this is all you need to read.

From these horses, I am most impressed, not necessarily in this order, with TAIBA, WHITE ABARRIO, ZANDON, EPICENTER and MESSIER. Of the remaining entries, I like CROWN PRIDE best.

Whether this impacts the Kentucky Derby or not remains to be seen, but there are two sets of prep races that with striking similarities. One set of three races produced an abnormally large number of horses that finished the final 3/8 mile fast (38 seconds or less) on tracks that were playing fast; and another set of two races saw everything finish slowly (more than 38 seconds). My top three picks did not run in any of these races.
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THE FIELD

It helps me organize my thoughts to write about each horse in post position order. Selections and some suggested plays follow. Good luck to everyone!

1 MO DONEGAL (KY) 10-1. I apologize for the length of my analysis of Mo Donegal, but as you read on I think you'll see why it's this way. If he wins I am going to look bad, but this is the way I see it.

Drawing post 1 isn't as bad as it used to be because the new 20-horse starting gate takes up less space than the prior setup when an auxiliary gate was added to the main gate. Horses breaking from there no longer have to angle out to skim the inner rail. But post 1 is still a tough proposition if your horse gets shut off or worse as runners breaking from more exterior spots angle in to get a bead on the all-important first turn, where many a Derby has been won or lost.

Mo Donegal not only ran perfect 12s, he came home super fast in the Wood Memorial, overcoming what appeared to be a speed bias that day -- but the majority of the field also came home fast. Of the eight starters, five finished the final 3/8 mile in under 38 seconds. See Section 4 for details.

I don't recall ever seeing a sub-36 (in this case, 35.47) finishing time for a nine-furlong Derby prep race in the 20 years I've been analyzing these figures. Second and third finishers Early Voting and Skippylongstocking also finished in WELL under 38 seconds (both in 36.42). A.P.s Secret (fourth, 37.32) and Barese (fifth, 37.14) also hit the mark. The other three starters were beaten a combined 117.75 lengths.

While I was preparing my annual Derby By The Speed Numbers chart in Section 6, in my mind it was confirmed that the dirt surface at Aqueduct that day had to be, shall we say, very firm.

The speed-track variant figures for Mo Donegal in the Wood Memorial were expressed in the DRF chart as follows: 108 --.

The speed number (the first number) is figured as follows: it's a comparison of a horse's final time with the best time at the distance at that track in the last three years. According to DRF, the best time over that three years is given a rating of 100, and one point is deducted for each fifth of a second by which a horse fails to equal that time. We may deduce that a point is added for each fifth of a second by which a horse exceeds that time, meaning that Mo Donegal ran 1.6 seconds, or eight lengths, faster than anything at that distance in three years at Aqueduct.

According to DRF, to compute the track variant, the quality of the racing is taken into consideration; and the speed ratings of all winners in each type of race on a card are added together and an average is computed, which is deducted from 100. For example, if the average speed rating is 90, the track variant is 10. Therefore, a -- track variant has to indicate either a zero or a negative number, and this typically indicates a track that was playing very fast.

One has to wonder how much this epic win took out of the top finishers. Early Voting was beaten only a neck, and he's bypassing the Derby, thus getting an extra two weeks with the Preakness as his target.

I also note that Joel Rosario, who was aboard Mo Donegal in the Wood, chose to stay with Epicenter in the Kentucky Derby. Jose Ortiz, who had the four most-recent prior mounts on Mo Donegal, is staying with Simplification, whom he's ridden twice.

The Wood Memorial gallop-out was not dominated by the top two finishers. It was "won" by fourth- and fifth-finishers A.P.'s Secret and Barese. A couple of lengths behind them running into the turn were Mo Donegal, Early Voting and Skippylongstocking. Of the latter three, Skippylongstocking galloped out ahead in the turn and looked to gallop out farthest when the video ended.

Mo Donegal may very well win the Kentucky Derby. If he finishes in under 36 seconds again, then he probably will win, and congrats to all the connections if he does, but I cannot help but wonder if he will be able to duplicate his effort in the Wood Memoriai in back-to-back races.


2 HAPPY JACK (KY) 30-1. He should rightfully be, based on his form, a zillion to one on the tote board Saturday. I look for Happy Jack to fall out of the gate and lag well behind most if not all of the field, thus staying out of trouble going into the first turn. At that point, if he's going to have a chance he can't wait long to mount a rally. Maybe it'll be a mile from the finish line, which is the length of his stellar workout at Keeneland last weekend (1:39.60 Breezing).

In the Santa Anita Derby, Happy Jack ran 12s for six furlongs before fading. In the gallop-out after the Santa Anita Derby, Taiba led into the turn but was soon joined by Messier, both in the middle of the track. In the turn, Happy Jack ran by those two on the rail. Messier was pulled up well before Taiba, who was approaching the end of the turn when the video ends.

Trainer O'Neill is on record that this horse needs the light bulb to come on. He might not ever wake up, but he has three new things going on that could light a fuse. He will run with blinkers off, get a new jockey in Rafael Bejarano, and he's back in Kentucky where he was foaled after running exclusively at Santa Anita. The Calumet Farm homebred has had his neck bowed galloping at Churchill Downs. The change of scenery, jockey and equipment, along with the most recent workout at Keeneland, could mean he's doing well enough to deserve consideration for the bottom of tickets.


3 EPICENTER (KY) 7-2. After his banner winter and spring campaign, most people thought Epicenter would be the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby, but then came along Zandon.

Epicenter has not been invincible all year -- he was beaten a head by Call Me Midnight in the LeComte -- but he's won four of his last five starts in either front-running or stalking style, the latter tactic coming in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, making him a flexible type with a good head on his shoulders that can get a distance. I should also mention that Epicenter ran perfect 12s in the Louisiana Derby.

Epicenter's Brisnet Figures have ascended in every start, and his Beyers have done the same thing but for one race (the Gun Runner), and he won that outing by 6 1/2 lengths. In his final and second start at age two, Epicenter took a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs on a track rated good and was given a speed-track variant rating of 88-17, the total of which (105) equals his Lousiana Derby total.

The Louisiana Derby and 1 1/8-mile Risen Star, which Epicenter won on the lead, have a couple of things in common aside from the fact that both races were run at Fairgrounds in New Orleans.

FIRST, a ton of horses finished fast. I wrote about the Risen Star in Section 4, "What is striking is that all four of the top runners finished well under 38 seconds (Epicenter 36.78, Smile Happy 36.43, Zandon also 36.43 and Pioneer of Medina 37.16), indicating either that this was a very strong race or that the track was playing fast." Upon further review, I see that fifth finisher Tawny Port also finished fast (37.23 seconds) in the Risen Star, and even sixth finisher Slow Down Andy -- who went on to win the Sunland Derby in what could be charitably called less than impressive style -- almost hit the mark, finishing in 38.08 seconds, and he was beaten 10 lengths.

The Louisiana Derby turned out the same way. My findings in Section 4 were, "This was a 1 3/16 mile race, but we can safely say that all four of the top runners get credit for finishing in the benchmark 38 seconds or less. If we assume the horses ran the same speed throughout the final 7/16 mile, then:

--Epicenter's final 7/16 mile in 42.39 interpolates to 36.33.
--Zozos' final 7/16 in 43.18, interpolates to 37.01.
--Pioneer of Medina's final 7/16 of 43.49 interpolates to 37.27
--Rattle N Roll's final 7/16 of 43.09 interpolates to 36.93.

Galt, who finished fifth, went the final 7/16 in 43.49,which interpolates to 37.27. Sixth finisher Call Me Midnight ran it in 42.74, and that interpolates to 36.63. The other three competitors were beaten a combined 85 1/4 lengths.

SECOND, like the Wood Memorial, we have an extremely low track variant on the days of both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. Here are the speed-track variants figures for each of the top finishers mentioned above:

RISEN STAR
Epicenter 101-02
Smile Happy 98-02
Zandon 98-02
Pioneer of Medina 98-02
Tawny Port 93-02
Slow Down Andy (unavailable)

LOUISIANA DERBY
Epicenter 104-01
Zozos 101-01
Pioneer of Medina 99-01
Galt (unavailable)
Rattle N Roll (unavailable)

I think we can deduce that the surface at Fairgrounds was playing fast in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. That can be tough on horses, but a couple of things come to mind that could offset this negative thinking.

First of all, Fairgrounds is known for being kind to horses during the course of a meet. Second, something that could help these horses recover is that they had five weeks from the Risen Star to the Louisiana Derby and six weeks from the Louisiana Derby to the Kentucky Derby, compared to Mo Donegal's four-week turnaround time from the Wood Memorial.

I should also note that Epicenter easily led the gallop-out in the Louisiana Derby, and he was still going in the second half of the first turn when the video stopped. Rosario seemed reluctant to pull him up, probably by design. The second, third and fourth finishers galloped out in that order.

Joel Rosario's election to stay with Epicenter (versus Mo Donegal) is a positive, if not unexpected, endorsement, and simply having Rosario's talents on board is yet another plus. Finally, Epicenter's workouts at Churchill Downs have been telling me he's more than ready to run again.

Epicenter is this year's Profile Buster horse, and that speaks well of him, too. The reason he has a middling ranking in The Downey Profile is horses that run well in the Louisiana Derby haven't won the Kentucky Derby since 1996.

Yes, Country House (the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner via disqualification)and Mandaloun (the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner via disqualification) both competed in the Louisiana Derby, but in those races Country House finished fourth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths and Mandaloun finished seventh, beaten 11 3/4 lengths. That is hardly a signal of Kentucky Derby success.

By My Standards, Spinoff and Sueno (first, second and third in the 2019 Louisiana Derby, did not impact the Kentucky Derby. But on the other hand, Louisiana Derby horses performed well in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, crossing the finish line second, third, fifth and sixth.

Regardless, statistically the Louisiana Derby is not impactful of the Kentucky Derby winner, and that's why Epicenter ranks so poorly in The Downey Profile Rankings. But there's always the Profile Buster Profile angle.


4 SUMMER IS TOMORROW (KY) 30-1. Before he ran a tiring second in the UAE Derby, picking up 40 Kentucky Derby points, Summer Is Tomorrow had raced six times, none of them beyond seven furlongs, winning twice. He has turf breeding (War Front is his grandsire), and during his sole workout at Churchill Downs, he displayed what I think is obvious high front action coming down the lane. He might or might not have a say in the early pace. Frankly, he doesn't look all that speedy upon inspection of the final times of his races at Meydan, but then again there is no runup to the timer at Meydan. Even if Summer Is Tomorrow does possess good early speed, will he break well? All that said, he impresses me as a horse that will yield once the field turns for home.


5 SMILE HAPPY (KY) 20-1. I had high hopes for Smile Happy after I saw him enter the paddock with the greatest attitude before he handily won the Kentucky Jockey Club. Since then, he's been a little disappointing even though he finished second in both his races this year and even though he was beaten in those races by Epicenter and Zandon, the two Kentucky Derby morning line favorites.

His demeanor at Churchill Downs has been a bit disappointing. He's been lathered up on multiple occasions when the weather is cool and other horses on the track are dry.

Smile Happy does possess that win at Churchill Downs, though, and a track rated good in the Blue Grass (I thought it looked muddy) may have impaired a move forward off the Risen Star. But he was a beaten favorite in both those races (2-1 and 9-5, respectively).

The gallop-out in the Blue Grass belonged to Zandon. He was all by himself.

Smile Happy finished fast in the Risen Star, but as pointed out above, so did everything else, and he did not run 12s. In the Blue Grass, Smile Happy ran 12's AND finished in under 38 seconds, so that's a positive. Also, he's in the second tier of the Profile Busters Profile, if that means anything.

Emotionally I am attached to this horse, and I wouldn't mind seeing Corey Lanerie win one for Louisville, but I cannot endorse him to win. Onlookers at the track don't like what they see, but maybe he'll surprise them with a top four finish.


6 MESSIER (KY) 8-1. If Messier wins, the race will be a clone of the way Bob Baffert 2020 and 2021 Kentucky Derby trainees Authentic and Medina Spirit took the roses -- go into the Santa Anita Derby the odds-on favorite; lose by three or four lengths; lead into the stretch in the Kentucky Derby; and rebreak to hold off all challengers. Messier is speedy but has high front action that might prevent him from winning at 10 furlongs no matter what, but he is athletic and will probably run well. With what we either know or suspect about how Baffert conducts his business, playing against Messier sounds risky. Plus, he ran almost perfect 12s in the Santa Anita Derby and finished in under 38 seconds.

In the gallop-out after the Santa Anita Derby, Taiba led into the turn but was soon joined by Messier, both in the middle of the track. In the turn, Happy Jack ran by those two on the rail. Messier was pulled up well before Taiba, who was approaching the end of the turn when the video ends.

One potential problem for Messier is that his post is to the immediate left of Crown Pride, who has shown a propensity for breaking inward. If that happens, both horses will be compromised.

It is impossible though a bit unpleasant, regardless of whether you like or dislike him, to think about the trainer who isn't here but yet seems to be here too. Whatever the reason he's been able to do it, Bob Baffert is a dominant force in the Kentucky Derby.


7 CROWN PRIDE (JPN) 20-1. In my opinion, this horse is 2022's version of Mandaloun, who trained brilliantly last year only to lose to Medina Spirit by a half-length. Based in Japan, the UAE Derby winner has seen a training regimen unlike anything that's used in North America. From April 16 to May 4, a span of 19 days, he breezed five times. The first workout was six furlongs in a dawdling 1:18.60, progressing to a pair of four-furlong bullet works on the other end of the timeline timed in 46.40 and 46.60. The last workout was a thing of beauty with horse and rider Christophe Lamaire moving as one, Lemaire hands down and quiet, Crown Pride measuring his speed even as he finished the move in 22.40, with the final furlong in 11 seconds.

This horse finished the UAE Derby slowly. However, as noted in Section 6 when analyzing Crown Pride's April 27 workout, while it is true the UAE Derby was timed overall in a slow 1:59:76, maybe the best comparison that day is the 1 1/4-mile, $12 million Dubai World Cup for older horses that was timed in 2:04:97, not exactly racehorse time either. So maybe the track at Meydan was tiring.

Looking at the PPs, there is cause for concern if there is an off track, as Crown Pride lost his only race in four starts on a muddy track in the Hyacinth. It may or may not be a coincidence that the one-mile Hyacinth was the shortest distance Crown Pride has run from four starts, and it was his first two-turn race. He broke his maiden running for $120,600 at nine furlongs on the straight at Chukyo, then won again in a minor stake at Hanshin at the same distance, again on a straight course. Next came the Hyacinth off a three-month layoff, followed by the UAE Derby.

On May 3, the dirt surface at Churchill Downs was sloppy, but Crown Pride seemed to have no difficulty getting over it. His exercise rider gave him a big pat on the neck after a spirited gallop, and when they came off the track he said, "In Japan when the track is muddy a horse's foot can sink into the surface. This track, there is more cushion and it is safer. I don't see that as being a problem."

Crown Pride does not rank well in either The Downey Profile or the Profile Busters Profile -- in fact, like Mandaloun he has only two points in the latter Profile -- but he has been touting himself. I will use him in exotics and place a win bet on him, especially if he's anywhere near his 20-1 morning line.

Crown Pride is inbred 3x4 to Sunday Silence, who is third generation back on the sire side and fourth back on the dam side. According to Avalyn Hunter's pedigree work, inbreeding refers to mating sires and dams that share common ancestors within five generations or less. This is done to increase the chances that the foal will inherit traits from the duplicated ancestor. There can be disadvantages, but in this case the advantages won out, and in a racehorse those advantages include concentration of genes of the ancestor.

Another positive for Crown Pride is the recent success of Japanese racehorses at the highest level, including the 2021 Breeders' Cup and and 2022 Dubai World Cup program.

Finally, perhaps the biggest risk Crown Pride (and Messier to his immediate left in the gate) is his tendency to break inward. But should he get away from the gate cleanly, I look for Crown Pride to be forwardly placed, put on cruise control, and then asked on the far turn.


8 CHARGE IT (KY) 20-1. Charge It is a big, good-looking colt that is light on his feet. He finished second to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby despite making several costly mistakes. He hit the gate, lugged in three times in the stretch while getting the whip, and switched back to his left lead in the final hundred yards. Despite all that he was never more than 2 1/2 lengths off the lead.

On the plus side, Charge It was given credit for running 12s in the Florida Derby, and on the down side, the finishing time was more than 38 seconds for all the runners -- and Charge It's gallop-out was lackluster. On the plus side, his training has been forward at Churchill Downs.

Should the track be wet, his weight could hamper his efforts to get over the top of the surface efficiently.

I do not see Charge It winning the Kentucky Derby, and I am marginal about his chance to run in the top 4, especially if the track is wet. He is playable in exotics.


9 TIZ THE BOMB (KY) 30-1. Tiz the Bomb is the top selection of Ed DeRosa (Horse Racing Nation), but I respectfully decline. Tiz the Bomb is an excellent turf/synthetic horse -- he ran perfect 12s and finished in under 38 seconds in the Jeff Ruby Steaks -- but his high knee action on the dirt here at Churchill Downs doesn't encourage me.

In the Jeff Ruby, the winner of the gallop-out was...Rich Strike, much the best. He passed both Tiz the Bomb and second finisher Tawny Port before they entered the first turn. Then Tiz the Bomb was pulled up quickly as Tawny Port ran by him, as did fifth finisher Royal Spirit.

I think maybe Tiz the Bomb had an excuse for his poor performance on the dirt in the Holy Bull, as I recall he was washed out entering the starting gate. His other two dirt outings were both sprints with low Beyer figures when he was a 2-year-old: a fifth-place debut race at Churchill Downs resulting in a 41 Beyer figure; and the other a 14 1/4-length win at Ellis Park in his second start, earning him a 68 Beyer.


10 ZANDON (KY) 3-1. First of all, I was at Keeneland on Blue Grass day, and Zandon's win was visually impressive. He came from off the pace, but it's not like he won from the clouds. Even as he was 10th of 11 after the first half-mile in 48.39, he was only 4 1/2 lengths off the pace. Zandon didn't run 12s in the Blue Grass (or the Risen Star), but he finished strongly over a track that was not glib at all (36.58 for the final 3/8 mile).

The gallop-out belonged to Zandon. He was all by himself.

His first workout after that, which took place at Keeneland, was more than trainer Brown expected, and Zandon did it easily, followed by an excellent breeze at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Brown impresses me as a smart young man who does not exaggerate the credentials of his Kentucky Derby prospects. He has been enthusiastic about Zandon. I have to remind myself periodically that trainer Asmussen isn't the only prominent name looking for his first Kentucky Derby win, and this could be Brown's year.

As I was preparing the Derby By The Speed Numbers chart (Section 6), I was impressed with Zandon's numbers all the way across the chart, not the least of which were his Brisnet Late Pace figure (114) and his combined DRF speed-track variant figures (88-18). Keeneland's track looked muddy to me but was rated good during the Blue Grass, and the high track variant figure combined with the fast finishing time impresses me.

I view it as my job to try to pick the winner. It's not my fault Zandon is the morning line favorite, and I wish his odds were going to be higher, but he looks like the best horse to me.

A very astute observer told me Wednesday night he believes Zandon will go straight to the lead and challenge the rest to come and get him. The colt has drawn a perfect post for the task, but in his brief career he has not been a great gate horse, so I can't say I can predict Zandon will wire this field. But I don't think he will be far back at any point.


11 PIONEER OF MEDINA (KY) 30-1. He was among the last to make it into the main body of the Derby. He shows a steadily ascending stream of Beyer and Brisnet figures that, if uninterrupted, could find him filling out the bottom on exotics, though I can't endorse him for the win. He's been a workmate of Charge It and has been outworked, just a bit, by that one, but he has more racing experience than Charge It, finishing 3 1/4 and 4 1/2 lengths, respectively, behind Epicenter in his last two starts. He ran 12s in the latter start and in the Risen Star; and he finished in under 38 seconds in both races along with several other horses.

Epicenter easily led the gallop-out after the Louisiana Derby, and he was still going in the second half of the first turn when the video stopped. The second, third and fourth finishers (Zozos, Pioneer of Medina and Rattle N Roll) galloped out in that order.

As noted above, the Fairgrounds track seemed to be playing fast, but Pioneer of Medina has had six weeks to rebound from the Louisiana Derby, and if he finishes in the top 4 of the Derby, we'll be looking back at our forms and saying to ourselves, yeah, I can see that now.


12 TAIBA (KY) 12-1. I never expected to see Taiba, or any other horse, top The Downey Profile Rankings off of only two starts, but I didn't expect to see Justify rank so well either after he was prepared for the Kentucky Derby with only three starts, the first of which was in February. I didn't think I would ever see a horse win the Santa Anita Derby off a single one-turn start, either. Plenty of people liked him, though, as he was sent off at 4-1 in a six-horse field.

Taiba is an expensive ($1.7 millon as a 2-year-old) purchase that could turn that investment into a dream come true in the ultimate irony for the same owner who campaigned Medina Spirit, a $35,000 purchase.

My mind keeps going back to Fusaichi Pegasus, a $4 million yearling purchase that raced only once at age two. There is a difference in that FuPeg raced four times at age three before the Kentucky Derby, but I see a similarities, too. Taiba kind of makes me think of a man among boys while he's on the track. He has a regal bearing, a good mind and a long stride.

Taiba ran perfect 12s in the Santa Anita Derby and finished in under 38 seconds. That impresses me.

In the gallop-out after the Santa Anita Derby, Taiba led into the turn but was soon joined by Messier, both in the middle of the track. In the turn, Happy Jack ran by those two on the rail. Messier was pulled up well before Taiba, who was approaching the end of the turn when the video ends.

Should he get a clean trip, Taiba and Mike Smith could gobble up some significant ground while inhaling horses heading to the top of the stretch, Then we will see The Moment of Truth. At that point, if his mind is good, Taiba could stay running and make it to the eighth pole first.

Just like Messier, it is impossible though a bit unpleasant, regardless of whether you like or dislike him, to think about the trainer who isn't here but yet seems to be here too. Whatever the reason he's been able to do it, Bob Baffert is a dominant force in the Kentucky Derby.


13 SIMPLIFICATION (FL) 20-1. I can't endorse Simplification for the win, and he's not going to be in my top selections, but for him to finish third or fourth is not beyond reasonable thought. He's been working like a champ on both fast and wet surfaces, and he's always a hard trier. I am not fond of what looks like high front action in his stride, but I respect him in that Jose Ortiz has not jumped ship.

Apparently Simplification's forward position in the Florida Derby was by design, although I am still not sure why that was done, and he ran 12s before fading and finishing in over 38 seconds.

In a lackluster gallop-out, Steal Sunsine led the way into the first turn after finishing sixth, beaten 8 1/4 lengths at 75-1 odds. White Abarrio and Simplification, the latter one pulled up very early, followed Steal Sunshine in the gallop-out. Charge It and O Captain were behind those three, not galloping out strongly.

In the Kentucky Derby, I look for Simplification to drop back early before making a sustained run at the leaders.


14 BARBER ROAD (KY) 30-1. His workouts at Churchill Downs have been, how shall we put it, less than flashy, but I like the vibe from Barber Road's barn. I don't think he can win the Kentucky Derby, but were he to finish in the top four, upon reflection we will recall he had finished on the board in seven of his eight races, with a fourth. If a race is long enough, a horse that just keeps grinding away like this one does can possibly come away with a check.

Barber Road finished second to Cyberknife in the Arkansas Derby, but he galloped out about a length in front of Cyberknife. The length of the video was inadequate to judge how far they ran. I didn't see any other horses in the gallop-out except for a brief glimpse of Secret Oath slowing down behind the other two.


15 WHITE ABARRIO (KY) 10-1. Like Charge It, White Abarrio didn't exactly burn up the track finishing the Florida Derby (39.66 seconds) after running 12s in the initial stages, but he showed versatility winning from off the pace after being thought of as a pace factor.

In a lackluster gallop-out, Steal Sunsine led the way into the first turn after finishing sixth, beaten 8 1/4 lengths at 75-1 odds. White Abarrio and Simplification, the latter one pulled up very early, followed Steal Sunshine in the gallop-out. Charge It and O Captain were behind those three, not galloping out strongly.

Here at Churchill Downs, White Abarrio been touting himself with an arched neck and full attention to the job at hand while galloping. His pre-Derby workouts at Gulfstream Park were excellent, and he may be improving as we speak. One thing about White Abarrio that cannot be denied -- he is a game horse and a hard trier. He likes to go and get 'em. I would be surprised if he were to win but not completely shocked; and I will not be surprised if he hits the board.


16 CYBERKNIFE (KY) 20-1. He is another one that finished his major prep slowly, going the final 3/8 mile of the Arkansas Derby in 39.16. With a reputation for being difficult sometimes, in front of a large crowd at Oaklawn Park Cyberknife unseated Florent Geroux in the post parade, but then he rated kindly for Geroux before taking command from Kavod, a front-runner with distance limitations, in the far turn and finishing 2 3/4 lengths better than Barber Road. It was a nice-looking win, but he finished slowly.

Barber Road galloped out about a length in front of Cyberknife, but the length of the video was inadequate to judge how far they ran. I didn't see any other horses in the gallop-out except for a brief glimpse of Secret Oath (the third finisher) slowing down behind the other two.

Cyberknife really likes Churchill Downs, hes' put in some really nice works here, especially the most recent one, and he has two good races over the surface, albeit several months ago while sprinting. Playable.


17  CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (KY) 30-1. Anything can happen, but I find it surprising that a horse that finished dead last in a major prep race would be entered in the Kentucky Derby, and I say that knowing how powerful Derby Fever can be. This horse appears to have peaked weeks ago. Even if he pops out of the gate quickly, and Classic Causeway is very good at doing that, it's difficult to envision him making a major impact off a win at 1 1/16 mile followed by a last-place finish.


18 TAWNY PORT (KY) 30-1. He got 40 Derby points with a second-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on synthetic track after running perfect 12s and finishing in under 38 seconds. Tawny Port showed he could handle dirt in the Lexington Stakes so long as 1:45 and change was good enough to win. To give him credit where credit is due, the track was playing deep that day.

In the Jeff Ruby, the winner of the gallop-out was...Rich Strike, much the best. He passed both Tiz the Bomb and Tawny Port before they entered the first turn. Then Tiz the Bomb was pulled up quickly as Tawny Port ran by him, and then so did fifth finisher Royal Spirit.

If Tawny Port runs a big one, more power to him, but think of him as a turf/synthetic horse, and I can't play all of them.


19 ZOZOS (KY) 20-1. James Scully of Brisnet/TwinSpires, whom I respect greatly, picked Zozos to win the Kentucky Derby. I cannot do that, but Scully's recommendation is enough for me to include him on exotic tickets. Zozos' finish in the Louisiana Derby was strong (under 38 seconds), albeit over a surface that was, as noted above, playing fast. He also ran 12s, hitting the mark at four of five calls.

Epicenter easily led the gallop-out after the Louisiana Derby, and he was still going in the second half of the first turn when the video stopped. The second, third and fourth finishers (Zozos, Pioneer of Medina and Rattle N Roll) galloped out in that order.

Zozos is among eight horses in the field with four or fewer starts -- he has three -- so another move forward could propel him to victory. He must be sent from this outer post, and his early speed could get him into good position in the all-important first turn. His pedigree does not scream distance to me, but we shall see.


20 ETHEREAL ROAD (KY) 30-1. Ethereal Road appears to have peaked in the Rebel Stakes and is likely to get hung wide from this post with his running style.

21 RICH STRIKE (KY) 30-1. With the scratch of Ethereal Road, Rich Strike drew in and will run. No. 22 Rattle N Roll was scratched. After Churchill Downs purchased Turfway Park, the Jeff Ruby Steaks, run on synthetic track, was elevated to 170-point status, and Rich Strike makes the third horse in this field to have competed in the Ruby. He has low speed figures on synthetic and even lower on dirt. With no early foot, all he can do is sit back and try to make one run.


SELECTIONS

1 ZANDON
2 CROWN PRIDE
3 TAIBA
4 EPICENTER
5 MESSIER
6 WHITE ABARRIO

SUMMARY

No one knows how much rain will fall on Friday and Saturday, but as of this post my money is on a fast track for the Kentucky Derby. The dirt track at Churchill Downs has an excellent drainage system.

I like Zandon based on his strong finishing time on a less-than-glib track in the Blue Grass Stakes, his dominant gallop-out after that race, his training since then, his athleticism, the fact that he's ranked in the Top 4 in The Downey Profile, his superior ranking in Derby By The Speed Numbers, and his trainer's demeanor since the Blue Grass. He has a top rider. I see Zandon at or near the front of the pack heading into the first turn.

It's hard to say any Derby horse has trained better than Crown Pride in the past two weeks. He acts like a powder keg ready to blow. If he exits the gate cleanly, and he might not, I see him attending the pace and launching a solid bid on the far turn.

Taiba looks and acts the part despite the fact that he's raced only twice. He possesses superior speed numbers, he has a long stride, and we are told his mind is reflected in the $1.7 million paid for him as a 2-year-old. There is no denying the Baffert influence in the barn of this horse, and Baffert has won many a Derby.

Although the still-fairly-new 20-horse starting gate has rendered the inside posts less difficult, it's still an inside post with a large field to the outside jockeying for good position going into the all-important first turn. Epicenter will exit from post 3, and he is a forwardly running horse, so he could get great position if there's enough separation going under the wire the first time.

Messier is an athletic type, and if he doesn't get wiped out by Crown Pride exiting the gate, he should be a pace factor to be reckoned with. If he wins on the lead off his second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, it will be the third straight year that a Baffert trainee (or former trainee) has executed this exact pattern.

White Abarrio might not have run quite as fast as some of these, but he's a real hard trier and a go-getter. He appears to be coming into the race the right way.

POSSIBLE PLAYS

I will play The Downey Profile Top 4 in an exacta box: Taiba, White Abarrio, Zandon and Cyberknife.

I will play Zandon to win and a lesser amount on Crown Pride to win.

I will play a Zandon-Crown Pride exacta box. A $2 box costs $4.

A possible trifecta play is:

10 Zandon (ONE HORSE)
w/
3 Epicenter, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 12 Taiba, 15 White Abarrio (FIVE HORSES)
w/
1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 8 Charge It, 11 Pioneer of Medina, 12 Taiba, 13, Simplification, 14 Barber Road, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife, 19 Zozos (THIRTEEN HORSES)

The number of combinations is 1 x 5 x 12 = 60

A total of 60 combinations. A $1 trifecta ticket would cost $60, and a 50 cent ticket would cost $30.

At the same cost for a ($60 for a dollar ticket, $30 for a 50 cent ticket), Zandon could be singled in the second spot like this:

3 Epicenter, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 12 Taiba, 15 White Abarrio
w/
10 Zandon
w/
1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 8 Charge It, 11 Pioneer of Medina, 12 Taiba, 13, Simplification, 14 Barber Road, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife, 19 Zozos

And again at the same cost ($60 for a dollar ticket, $30 for a 50 cent ticket) singled in the third spot like this:

1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 8 Charge It, 11 Pioneer of Medina, 12 Taiba, 13, Simplification, 14 Barber Road, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife, 19 Zozos
w/
3 Epicenter, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 12 Taiba, 15 White Abarrio
w/
10 Zandon

Or this (again at $60 for a dollar ticket or $30 for a 50 cent ticket):

3 Epicenter, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 12 Taiba, 15 White Abarrio
w/
1 Mo Donegal, 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 8 Charge It, 11 Pioneer of Medina, 12 Taiba, 13, Simplification, 14 Barber Road, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife, 19 Zozos
w/
10 Zandon

A possible superfecta play is:

10 Zandon
w/
7 Crown Pride, 12 Taiba (TWO HORSES)
w/
3 Epicenter, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 12 Taiba, 15 White Abarrio (FIVE HORSES)
w/
1 Mo Donegal, 2 Happy Jack, 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, 8 Charge It, 11 Pioneer of Medina, 12 Taiba, 13, Simplification, 14 Barber Road, 15 White Abarrio, 16 Cyberknife, 19 Zozos (14 HORSES)

The number of combinations is 1 x 2 x 4 x 12 = 96

A total of 96 combinations. A $1 superfecta ticket would cost $96. According to a Churchill Downs release, on Oaks Day and Derby Day the superfecta is a $1.00 minimum wager.

For more information about wagering options, please click here.