Kentucky Derby by the Speed Numbers,

OR, Who'll Reach The Eighth Pole First?

By Dick Downey

Posted May 1, 2022

In 63 of the last 67 (94 percent) runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader. In all, 50 of the last 67 winners (75 percent) were on the lead at the eighth pole.*

From six categories of speed figures at DRF, Brisnet and Equibase in 3-year-old races going 1 1/8 or 1 3/16 miles, these horses are in the Top 4 multiple times. A chart showing all the figures is below.**

ZANDON - 5
EPICENTER - 4
MO DONEGAL - 4
TAIBA - 4
MESSIER - 3
SMILE HAPPY - 2

DETAILS

Top 4 Beyer Speed Figures: Epicenter (102, 98), Messier (99), Taiba (102), Zandon (98), Zozos (98)

Top 4 DRF combined speed/track variant figures: If you throw out Tawny Port (103) and Tiz the Bomb (105), who both ran on synthetic, that leaves: Epicenter (103, 105), Mo Donegal (108), Smile Happy (103), Zandon (106)

Top 4 Brisnet Figures: Messier (108), Mo Donegal (111), Taiba (111), Zandon (103)

Top 4 Combined Brisnet E1-E2 figures: Epicenter (203), Messier (209), Simplification (213), White Abarrio (206)

Top 4 Brisnet Late Pace figures: Epicenter (106), Mo Donegal (121), Taiba (109), Zandon (114)

Top 4 Equibase Figures: If you throw out Tawny Port (102) and Tiz the Bomb (105), who both ran on synthetic, that leaves: Mo Donegal (103), Smile Happy (104), Taiba (102), Zandon (107)

*Eighth pole facts for every Kentucky Derby since 2005 are shown below. 

2022 Kentucky Derby Chart

Runup at Meydan

There is no runup to the timer at Meydan Racecourse. Runup to the timer in the Kentucky Derby is 34 feet.

DRF Speed and Track Variant

The Beyer Speed Figures, a well-known staple at Daily Racing Form, are complemented by the publication's pure speed rating and track variant figures, explained succinctly as follows.

The speed rating is a comparison of a horse's final time with the best time at the distance at that track in the last three years. The best time is given a rating of 100. One point is deducted for each fifth of a second by which a horse fails to equal that time.

To compute the track variant, the speed ratings of all winners in each type of race on a card are added together and an average is computed, which is deducted from 100. The lower the track variant, the faster the track, or the better the overall quality of competition that day, according to the Form. Conversely, a higher track variant almost always means a slower track.

Brisnet Figures

Brisnet uses pace numbers to evaluate horses' speed in the early and late stages of races, called E1, E2 and LP.

E1 is the pace rating of the horse from the start to the first call, and E2 is the pace rating of the horse from the start to the second call.

LP is the pace rating of the horse from the second call to the finish of the race.

* In 2021, Medina Spirit (since disqualified) and Mandaloun (who was second across the wire) were one-two, separated by a neck. In 2020, Authentic was ahead by a length. In 2019, Maximum Security also led by a length with a furlong left - but was disqualified. In 2018, Justify led by 2 1/2 lengths at the all-important eighth pole. In 2017, Always Dreaming led by three lengths at the eighth-pole. In 2016, Nyquist led by 2 1/2 lengths at the eighth pole. In 2015, American Pharoah had poked his head in front at that point of the race. In 2014, California Chrome led by five lengths at the furlong marker. In 2013, Orb was second, 2 1/2 lengths off the lead at the eighth pole. In 2012, I'll Have Another was second, three lengths off the lead with a furlong left. In 2011, Animal Kingdom didn't qualify for this stat, but he was about as close as you can get -- third by by 1 1/2 length at the eighth pole. In 2010, Super Saver was two lengths the best at the furlong marker. Mine That Bird was one length ahead at the eighth pole in 2009. Big Brown, the 2008 Derby winner, was 2 1/2 lengths ahead. In 2007, Street Sense was up by a length, and in 2006, Barbaro was four lengths in front at the eighth pole. The 2005 winner, Giacomo, was an exception to the rule. He was in sixth place at the eighth pole, almost three lengths off the lead held by Closing Argument at that moment.