Kentucky Derby and Horse Racing at The Downey Profile®
The Downey Profile
A Seasonal Website
About the Kentucky Derby

WITHERS STAKES - AQUEDUCT - 1 1/8 MILE
Jan. 31 - R9 - 4:08 ET
Rescheduling in progress
1 Schoolyardsuperman (KY) M Franco 123 C Brown 2-1
2 Fourth and One (NY) J Rodriguez 123 J Englehart 8-1
3 Project Ace (KY) C Lanerie 123 D Romans 10-1
4 Talk to Me Jimmy (NY) R Silvera 123 R Rodriguez 12-1
5 Mailata (PA), M Sanchez 123 B Reid Jr. 6-1
6 Ottinho (KY) F Prat 123 C Brown 8-5
7 Grittiness (KY), R Santana Jr. 123 T Pletcher 9-2
8 Star Sweeper (KY) A Rodriguez 123 L Lindler Jr.
20-1
HOLY BULL STAKES - GULFSTREAM PARK - 1 1/16 MILE
Jan. 31 - R12 - 5:45 ET
1 Incredibolt (KY) J Torres 124 R Mott 9-2
2 Roger That Dana (FL) R Rojas 118 L Ramirez 20-1
3 Project Ace (KY) C Lanerie 118 D Romans 20-1
4 Global Aviator (KY) J Bravo 118 R Crichton 5-1
5 Cannoneer (KY) I Ortiz Jr. 118 B Cox 2-1
6 Buetane (KY) J Rosario 122 B Baffert SCR
7 Nearly (FL) J Velazquez120 T Pletcher 9-5
8 Bravaro (NY) T Gaffalione 120 S Joseph, Jr. 8-1
9 Game for It (KY) J Alvarado 118 C Summers 30-1
SOUTHWEST STAKES - OAKLAWN PARK - 1 1/16 MILE
Rescheduled from Jan. 31 to Friday. Feb. 6. R11 - 4:40 CT
1 Reclamation (KY) R Vazquez 117 C Davis 30-1
2 D'code (KY) L Saez 117 H R Ashford Jr. 3-1
3 Buetane (KY) J Rosario 117 B Baffert 4-1
4 Rancho Santa Fe (KY) F Prat 122 B Cox 15-1
5 Litmus Test (KY) J Hernandez 122 B Baffert 5-2
6 Circle Tap (KY) R Santana Jr. 117 D Stewart 30-1
7 Liberty National (KY) B J Hernandez Jr. 117 K McPeek 10-1
8 Spirit of Royal (KY) F Arrieta 117 D Stewart 30-1
9 Strategic Risk (FL) J Castellano 122 M Casse 9-2
10 Bricklin (KY) J Torres 122 R Brisset 20-1
11 Silent Tactic (KY) C Torres 117 M Casse 20-1
12 Baytown Dreamer (KY) O Bocachica 117 P McEntee 30-1
13 Soldier N Diplomat (KY) J Ortiz 122 S Asmussen 12-1
14 Sleepingonfreedom (KY) E Esquivel 117 K McPeek 30-1
Updated Jan. 23, 2026: Derby Points and Rules
Updated Jan. 23, 2026: Derby Points Standings
Updated Jan. 19, 2026: Derby Future Wager Pool 3
Downey stories at BloodHorse covering legal issues in the industry
UAE 2000 GUINEAS TRIAL - 1600 Meters - Meydan - Jan. 23
Emirates Racing Chart
Video
ORDER OF FINISH
1 Six Speed
2 Devon Island
3 Union Security
4 Lino Padrino
5 Raajehh
6 Al Khawaneej
7 Yamdeek
8 Brotherly Love
9 Awesome Fleet
10 Duke of Immatin
11 Yasup
12 Senator of State
13 Rammaas
14 Namaguederaz
15 Don Pelicano
16 Legalized
LECOMTE STAKES - 1 1/16 MILE - Jan. 17
Equibase Chart Video
ORDER OF FINISH
1 Golden Tempo 5-2
2 Mesquite 4-1
3 Carson Street 15-1
4 Chip Honcho 8-1
5 Quality Mischief 29-1
6 Exosome 68-1
7 Stop the Car 9-2
8 Crown the Buckeye 7-1
9 White Tiger 5-1
10 Thunder Buck 8-1
SCR Ocelli
LEONATUS STAKES - 1 MILE - Turfway Park - Jan. 17
ORDER OF FINISH
1 Street Beast 5-2
2 Fulleffort 6-5
3 Jutland 18-1
4 Valiant 7-1
5 Great White 10-1
6 Reb Five 6-1
7 I Did I Did 10-1
8 Brazilian Conexao 73-1
SCR 6 No Joke Joe
SAN VICENTE STAKES - 7 FURLONGS - Santa Anita - Jan. 10
Equibase Chart Video (No Kentucky Derby points)
ORDER OF FINISH
1 So Happy 5-2
2 Buetane 1-2
3 Acknowledgemeplz 7-1
4 Thirsty Rebel 19-1
5 Greenwich Village 8-1
SMARTY JONES STAKES - 1 1/16 MILE - Oaklawn Park - Jan. 3
Equibase Chart
Video
ORDER OF FINISH
1 Strategic Risk 5-2
2 Silent Tactic 14-1
3 Baytown Dreamer 84-1
4 Sleepingonfreedom 9-2
5 Rancho Santa Fe 5-2
6 Scar Ship 91-1
7 Universe 2-1
8 Oscar's Hope 8-1
SCR Boca Beach Club
JEROME STAKES - 1 MILE - Aqueduct - Jan. 3
Equibase Chart Video (Horses at the gate 2:00 mark)
ORDER OF FINISH
1 My World 5-2
2 Balboa 3-5
3 Enforced Agenda 2-1
4 Freedom's Echo 26-1
SCR Mailata
The Downey Profile will not offer a paid subscription package for the 152d Kentucky Derby set for May 2, 2026. Derby updates will be posted on the free pages of the website.
________________________
View the 2025 Kentucky Derby Subscription Page here. To our Subscribers, thank you very much.
_________________________
PPs Courtesy of Brisnet
Kentucky Derby Kentucky Oaks Pat Day Mile American Turf
Daily Derby Update
Kentucky Derby Works Shows
May 1 April 30 April 29 April 28 April 27 April 26 April 25 April 24 April 23 April 22 April 21 April 20 April 19
April 18
Kentucky Oaks Day Overnight
Kentucky Derby Day Overnight
Kentucky Derby Points Leaderboard
_____________________________
| Horse/ML | Odds | Horse/ML | Odds | Horse/ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Citizen Bull 20-1 | 14-1 | 8 Journalism 3-1 | 7-2 | 15 Render Judgment 30-1 | 14-1 |
| 2 Neoequos 30-1 | 50-1 | 9 Burnham Square 12-1 | 16-1 | 16 Coal Battle 30-1 | 27-1 |
| 3 Final Gambit 30-1 | 16-1 | 10 Grande 20-1 | SCR | 17 Sandman 6-1 | 9-2 |
| 4 Rodriguez 12-1 | SCR | 11 Flying Mohawk 30-1 | 34-1 | 18 Sovereignty 5-1 | 9-1 |
| 5 American Promise 30-1 | 13-1 | 12 East Avenue 20-1 | 36-1 | 19 Chunk of Gold 30-1 | 29-1 |
| 6 Admire Daytona 30-1 | 41-1 | 13 Publisher 30-1 | 27-1 | 20 Owen Almighty 30-1 | 40-1 |
| 7 Luxor Cafe 15-1 | 12-1 | 14 Tiztastic 20-1 | 18-1 | 21 Baeza 12-1 | 19-1 |
April 1, 2025 Announcement
Friends and Colleagues: This year marks my 24th Kentucky Derby at The Downey Profile. To TDP subscribers, I cannot thank you enough for your friendly, supportive relationship with me over the years.
I will offer a Subscription Page in a new format this year. My Downey Profile model helped me pick the winner of six consecutive runnings of the Kentucky Derby from 2014 through 2019. Since then my model has not performed well.* Seems like my top pick likes to run third.
My 2025 presentation will continue to include reference to The Downey Profile, but I won't be tied to it. I will analyze information about 12-second furlongs, how fast horses finish the longer preps, the all-important gallop-outs, comparative top four speed figures, arrival times at Churchill Downs with barn numbers, workouts, buzz, physical presentation, and more.
The page will be ready to open sometime next week. Thank you again, and good luck!
--Dick Downey, April 1, 2025
PS: This is not an April Fool's message!
*First there was the covid year when the Derby was run in September (2020); followed by Medina Spirit being disqualified for having an illegal drug in his system (2021); the highly improbable Rich Strike, who never won again (2022); and Mage and Mystik Dan (2023, 2024), neither of whom fit the Profile and neither of whom has won again, although Mystik Dan still has a chance.
HOW WE'VE FARED IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY
Dick's Picks for the 2025 Kentucky Derby
I selected SANDMAN in an attempt to upset JOURNALISM. I thought the son of American Pharoah, LUXOR CAFE, could very well get it done, but he got banged around during the race. I thought BAEZA might outlast Luxor Cafe, and he certainly did. COAL BATTLE looked live, and I was rooting for him and trainer Briley, but he was hit hard twice.
#17 SANDMAN - outrun
#8 JOURNALISM - second
#7 LUXOR CAFE - banged up during the race
#21 BAEZA - third
#16 COAL BATTLE - banged up during the race
PLAY ON THE BOTTOM
#18 SOVEREIGNTY (winner), #3 FINAL GAMBIT (fourth), #9 BURNHAM SQUARE, #1 CITIZEN BULL, #13 PUBLISHER, #14 TIZTASTIC
In 2024, once again the winner, Mystik Dan, did not fit our Profile. I emailed subscribers and observed The Downey Profile was not meeting expectation and may have run its course. My selection, Fierceness, was well-positioned at the top of the stretch but he had nothing to give in the last quarter-mile.
In 2023, our top pick was a horse I had in a future wager at 112-1 that turned out to be the favorite, Angel of Empire. He finished a surging third. The winner was Mage. Although we encouraged using him in exotic wagers, he did not fit our Profile and was not a Profile Buster.
1. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (objective pick) (third)
2. KINGSBARNS (subjective pick) (fourteenth)
3. TWO PHIL'S (objective pick) (second)
4. TAPIT TRICE (objective pick) (seventh)
Longshots
DISARM (subjective pick) (fourth)
ROCKET CAN (subjective pick) (ninth)
In 2022, for the second consecutive year, the winner was not in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor was he a Profile Buster. Rich
Strike won at 80-1 odds. Dick's Picks were:
1 ZANDON (third at 6-1)
2 CROWN PRIDE
(contested fast pace, 13th at 17-1)
3 TAIBA (12th at 5-1)
4 EPICENTER (second at 4-1)
5 MESSIER (15th at 7-1)
6 WHITE ABARRIO (16th at 15-1)
In 2021, the Kentucky Derby winner was neither in The Downey Profile Top 4 nor a Profile Buster for the first time since 2009. Downey had him in the fifth slot among six selections.
1. HOT ROD CHARLIE (third at 5-1)
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (fourth at 5-2)
3. ROCK YOUR WORLD (seventeenth at 9-2)
KING FURY -SCRATCHED
4. KNOWN AGENDA (ninth at 9-1))
5. MEDINA SPIRIT (first at 12-1)*
6. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (tenth at 10-1)
*Disqualified later: medication infraction
HARD TO LEAVE OUT
MIDNIGHT BOURBON
(sixth at 13-1)
LONGSHOTS I LIKE MOST (in post position order)
MANDALOUN (second at 28-1)**
O BESOS (fifth at 41-1)
**Moved up to first after Medina Spirit DQ
In 2020, Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page failed to win for the first time in seven years. Three of Downey's four picks finished in the top four, including winner Authentic. The top two finishers were among The Downey
Profile's Top 4 rankings, as was fourth finisher Honor A. P.
1. TIZ THE LAW (second)
2. HONOR A. P. (fourth)
THOUSAND WORDS (SCR)
3. Ny TRAFFIC (eighth)
4. AUTHENTIC (first)
Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby in 2019. It was the sixth straight year his top pick won, and Maximum Security was among The Downey Profile's Top 4 horses, as was Tacitus. Four of Downey's top five picks finished in the top five.
1. MAXIMUM SECURITY (first - DQ'd by stewards to 17th)
2. TACITUS (fourth, moved up to third)
3. IMPROBABLE (fifth, moved up to fourth
4. VEKOMA (thirteenth, moved up to twelfth)
5. CODE OF HONOR (third, moved up to second)
Downey's top pick on his Kentucky Derby subscription page won the Kentucky Derby for the fifth straight year in 2018. Justify was among The Downey Profile Top 4 horses, as were second and third finishers Good Magic and Audible.
The final Kentucky Derby workout by Justify was impressive, and that helped lead Downey to pick him right on top. Good Magic was in Downey's second spot for the cold exacta.
1. JUSTIFY (first)
2. GOOD MAGIC (second)
3. MENDELSSOHN (twentieth)
4. HOFBURG (seventh)
5. AUDIBLE (third)
6. BOLT D'ORO (twelfth)
Downey picked the Kentucky Derby winner for his Kentucky Derby subscribers for the fourth straight year in 2017.
Always Dreaming wasn't in the Downey Profile Top 4, but it was kind of a crazy year and Downey wasn't sold on the Top 4. Always Dreaming was the top Profile Buster Profile horse, and he put in a super-impressive final Derby workout. The selections underneath Always Dreaming weren't as strong as the comparable picks in 2015 and 2016.
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (first)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE (fourth)
3. IRISH WAR CRY (tenth)
4. MCCRAKEN (eighth)
5. IRAP (eighteenth)
6. GORMLEY (ninth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were
1. NYQUIST (first)
2. EXAGGERATOR (second)
3. GUN RUNNER (third)
4. BRODY'S CAUSE (seventh)
5. OUTWORK (fourteenth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2015 Kentucky Derby were
1. AMERICAN PHAROAH (first)
2. DORTMUND (third)
3. FROSTED (fourth)
4. FIRING LINE (second)
5. DANZIG MOON (fifth)
Downey's selections on the Subscription Page for the 2014 Kentucky Derby were
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME (first)
2. DANZA (third)
3. SAMRAAT (fifth)
4. INTENSE HOLIDAY (twelfth)
5. CHITU (ninth)
6. GENERAL A ROD (eleventh)
The Downey Profile is a seasonal website launched in 2003 primarily focused on the Kentucky Derby and the Derby Trail
Copyright 2003-2025
Made with BUILD by One Eleven